2014 NFL Predictions

Dear Coach BO’B,

I have but one question for you – What the hell were you thinking?

I know life in Happy Valley really isn’t all that happy. But you had several years of goodwill built up as team savior after the formerly sainted Joe Pa sat by while his staff screwed the pooch (an underage male pooch it turns out), then was kicked out in ignominy, and had the good sense to quickly fuck off and die.

What was it that attracted you? The Texans’ record of despair alternating with tepid mediocrity?  Owner Bob’s tendency to hang onto coaches well after their expiration date?  The wonderful summer weather?  The strip clubs and steak houses? The prospect of being the one who finally turns it around in Houston?  Pardon me, I almost spit up my coffee.

Tell me BO’B. What made you decide to hitch your wagon to the Texans’ star?  Couldn’t you see the gruesome trail of the dead leading from the locker room?  Or was it that you decided your path to being a successful offensive coordinator in the NFL leads inevitably through NGR park?  Yes, you too can be a successful offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills after your time in Houston is done.

Your friend in football,

Red from Texas

2013 Recap

My NFC division champions were the Eagles, Falcons, 49ers and Packers. Wild cards were the Seahawks and Panthers.  That’s 5 out of 6 in the playoffs.  Vegas baby Vegas.

My AFC division champions were the Patriots, Broncos, Texans and Bengals. Wild cards were the Colts and Stealers.  That 4 out of 6.  Meet me in Atlantic City.   I would have gotten 5 of 6 if the Stealers had gotten in, which would have happened but for the Chiefs resting 20 of 22 starters in Week 17 and still managing to blow a 10 point lead over the Chargers (including Succop missing a game winning FG with 4 seconds left).  Oh well.

I am guessing that 9 out of 12 beat out all but a handful of the professional prognosticators.

On the awards front, my only correct pick was Eddie Lacy for Offensive ROY.

On to my predictions.

But first, our annual look at what’s up in JerryWorld.

Let’s do the math.

4        afternoon games with national coverage – only one of which (at Seahawks) is naturally time-zone related; plus

1        national TV game on Thanksgiving (a tradition – but that doesn’t mean I can’t complain about it); plus

3        Sunday night games; plus

1        Thursday night game; plus

1        Monday night game.

For a grand total of 10 national TV appearances (including 5 of their last 6 games) this season for a team that has won exactly one playoff game in the last 17 seasons and hasn’t sniffed the post-season in 4 years. As with executive compensation packages, actual results apparently mean nothing.

And before we move on – The Dead Man of the Year Award

Given annually to the player who went from meaningful contribution to his team winning in the previous season to utter worthlessness. In other words, the player who contributed about as much as a dead man.

And as if there was any doubt, the winner by acclamation is Matt Schaub!

A big thanks to Matt for setting a new Dead Man of the Year standard by which all future nominees will be judged. I am mindful that presenting Matt with this award is an insult to all actual dead men, but fortunately they aren’t complaining. Schaub went from starting the 2013 season fresh off leading his team to a 12-4 season and a less than rousing playoff victory, to being a hapless punching bag in less than a month.  More impressive is that his rag-armed pass into the flat against the Seahawks that Sherman returned 58 yards for a TD to tie the game with less than 3 minutes left, probably would have won this award all by itself.  If you think you can resist the temptation to gouge out your eyes with a carrot peeler, please look at that play again.  Even if Sherman had not intercepted, there was no possibility of positive yards as at least 4 Seahawks were converging on the receiver – having sniffed out yet another of Kubiak’s naked bootleg plays. The only play is to throw the ball at the ground – especially given the situation.  Instead, it’s the exact moment that the whole season began to circle the drain. Overall, it was an impressive accomplishment for this year’s Dead Man and shows a real dedication to the kind of abject suckery required to claim this cherished prize.

NFC East

Eagles.  This was my boldest pick last year and it turned out to be a good one.  In contrast, I find this to be one of the easiest picks this season.  The Cowboys are mired in mediocrity.  Romo is aging and they have no one to carry the rock.  And while I’m ragging on the Cowboys, let me have the pleasure of reminding you that the Cowboys had the worst defense in the league last year and that was with Jason Hatcher and DeMarcus Ware – who are now gone. Do you really think Henry Melton is going to make a difference?  In fact, I learned all I needed to know about where the Cowboys’ season is headed when I read the Dallas Morning News sports section after the first pre-season game.  The lead article started “In Jerry Jones’ mind, the Cowboys defense cannot be worse than last season.”  Need I say more? The Offensive Term for Native Americans (hereafter the “OTNA’s) must have a healthy RG3 returned to form.  I don’t see that happening.  The Giants have a chance with a very good multi-phased running attack, an experienced QB and what should be a solid if unspectacular defense.  Still I look for the Eagles to have the best offense in the NFC.  The addition of Sproles may be the most brilliant move of the off-season.  Properly used in this offense he might account for 2 WAR’s.  12-4 wins this division going away.

NFC South:

Panthers.  This could be the most competitive division in football this season and a surprisingly tough pick.  The Saints clearly don’t suck but I don’t think they are a better team this year.  The Falcons cannot possibly suck as much as they did last year.  No team (and that includes your Houston Texans) did a greater nosedive than the Falcons last season.  Panthers had a rough off-season.  The receiver corps was decimated and not much help came on defense.  I still think they have the best front seven in the league – backed up by a suspect secondary.  A good ground game and a quickly maturing QB may be enough to get them through a brutal schedule.  But Kelvin Benjamin better be a superstar.  Don’t expect them to go 12-4 again, but 10-6 just might win this division.

NFC West:

Cardinals. I can almost feel the limb breaking as I make this pick. I haven’t seen anyone picking the Cards to win a division stacked with Seahawk, 49ers and the improving Rams.  But, the Cards were among the very best teams in the NFL over the last 9 games of the regular season last year.  And they have shown they can at least beat the Seahawks at home.  There aren’t a lot of patsies on their schedule, so if they win this division they will have earned it.  Concerns? You bet.  Can Carson Palmer continue to play the way he did over the last half of the season and make us remember why he was once the highest paid player in the NFL?  Maybe.  Is Andre Ellington an every down back? Who knows?  What seems certain is that the defense can play with anyone in the league unless I choose them as my fantasy defense that particular week.  A tough fought 11-5 wins this division.

NFC North:

Bears. I hate this division and would boycott if that were an option. Since it’s not, I will pick the Bears by default.  11-5.

NFC Wildcards:

Packers. The Pack is starting to look like the most under-achieving team in the league.  Lots of talent and not much to show for it over the last three seasons. They still have A-Rodg, very deep receiving and rushing corps, and an excellent offensive line.  This should be the best offense in football for most of the season.  Defense is more of a problem.  Maybe moving Raji back to nose-tackle solves some problems.  Maybe HaHa is the ball hawking safety every team is looking for.  Even with all of that, I think they underachieve again this year.  10-6 gets them in and quickly out.

Seahawks. I would not be surprised to see the Seahawks miss the playoffs. Of late, SuperBowl success does not seem to translate well into the next season and the Hawks have lost a number of players.  Still they have Marshawn Lynch and a tough defense.  I think Russell Wilson is what he is.  He is not an elite QB and never will be.  But you don’t need one if you have the other components and the other team doesn’t ever score.  Hawks have enough left in the tank to make it in at 10-6.

AFC East

Patriots. Blah Blah Blah. Patriots go 12-4.

AFC West

 Broncos. Hard as it maybe to recover from the ignominious butt-whipping they received in the SB, the Broncos will be back.  Strangely, almost none of the pundits seem to beatdown on the Bronco’s prospects this season. And I conquer. Almost no one is talking thrash about this team.  Holly Sonders (and if you aren’t familiar with her from the Golf Channel you soon will be when she is prowling the sidelines for Fox this season) thinks otherwise, but as a newcomer shellacs perspective. I know each Bronco vanquishes the team could replay that last game, but it happened.  There’s no hiding from the paste. Us Texans’ fans slaughter know about that.  When you lose like that it hurts from the head to defeat. The whole SB fiasco had to drub them the wrong way. But, the Broncos are not down and rout. The Broncos have reloaded somewhat, and did not need to have whipped the slayed clean.  Surely, this revamped team is to Peyton’s licking.  I larrup the ante and pick the Broncos to go 15-1 this season.

AFC South:

Texans. Okay, now that you are through ROTFL, consider this – Pete Prisco claims the Texans will “stink.”  Take the exact opposite of anything that moron says to the bank.  Moreover, because of their utter ineptitude last season, the Texans only play 3 teams that made the playoffs last year.  The Bengals, Eagles and Colts (twice).  They don’t face a playoff team until week 6 at home against the Colts. (No wonder I had trouble picking games I wanted to attend this year.)  Of the other teams on the schedule, you could argue that the Stealers were a playoff quality team last year (having missed the goddamn playoffs by the narrow margin of a missed Ryan Succop field goal – do I still sound bitter about that?) and the Ravens are always tough.  But other than those six games, they play a collection of patsies, mediocrities, has-beens and never-weres – that is, teams like the Texans.  Implausible as it may seem, the key may be the Raiders game in week 2.  Our title-holding Dead Man of the Year will surely be pumped up to beat the team that dumped him like big greasy turd into the toilet that is Oakland.  If they start 2-0 it is just possible they might roll into Arlington in early October with a 4-0 record being the talk of the NFL.  At 5-0 or even 4-1, that would set up a marquee Thursday night game against the Colts.  Moreover, they would only need to be slightly above mediocre (a seemingly impossible goal last season) for the remainder of the season to have a decent shot at the playoffs or even winning this division.  Remember, this is a team that lost 9 games by less than a TD last year playing 8 games against playoff teams including both teams that ended up in the SuperBowl.  The defense is better with Clowney, Brooks Reed at inside LB and Cushing back. Mercilus, however, is looking more and more like a bust. And despite all the evidence, I like Shiloh Keo.  The offense is better with Foster.  Andre will be Andre and it’s time for Hopkins to step up in a big way. Fitz is probably a stiff, but hopefully a somewhat savvy stiff that can run BO’B’s complicated offense. Maybe the ball bounces their way this season. Maybe the Gods are smiling.  Maybe their paper-thin depth chart isn’t tested in more than one or two positions. Maybe it’s finally football time in Houston. Maybe I should put down the pipe now.  Texans go 10-6 and win on a tie-breaker.

AFC North

Bengals.  A tough call in this division. Especially to pick a team that hasn’t won a playoff game in 24 years.   Note this:  only Marino and Manning have thrown for more yards in their first 3 seasons than the Red Rifle.  Of course that’s a misleading stat because most QB’s don’t start in their first season.  But RR, is not alone, he has formidable weapons on his side including AJ Green and Gio Bernard to name  a few.  And some are whispering about the Bengals defense in the same paragraph as the 85 Bears and the 02 Bucs.  I sense the Big Dog doing a spit take right about now.  Take this one to the bank, the Bengals will lead the league in sacks this season.  Of course, I am also of the mind that sacks are the most overrated statistic out there.  If they also lead in INT’s then you will have something.   Bengals 11-5.

AFC Wildcards

Colts.  The Colts are sort of like the San Antonio Spurs of the NFL – except without the five rings of course.  Never a lot of drama.  They seem to reload almost every season.  They almost always win their division and usually a playoff game.  No wonder I hate them so much.  Colts. 10-6.

Ravens.  A tough call between the Chargers, Chiefs, Ravens and Stealers for the last playoff spot. Every time I pick the Chargers they disappoint me.  So fuck them. Almost the same for the Stealers. And the Chiefs may have been a play-the-shitty schedule flash-in-the-pan.  If Flacco Joe can run a naked bootleg, then maybe the Ravens get in.  Someone has to get in at 9-7.

Awards

NFL MVP – Nick Foles

Defensive Player of the Year – DeMarcus Ware.

Offensive ROY – Kelvin Benjamin.

Defensive ROY – Jadeveon Clowney (looking unlikely at this point)

Coach of the Year —  Bo’B.

Playoffs

Bengals over Broncos in AFC championship game.

Eagles over Cardinals in NFC.

 Eagles win it all for the first time since Norm “the Dutchman” Van Brocklin^[1] led them to the NFL Championship in 1960. I know I made that prediction before, but if I keep on it will eventually be right.

SPECIAL NCAA BONUS PREDICTIONS

Texas rebounds to 9-3 losing only to teams from Oklahoma and the Panhandle gets another trip to the Alamo Bowl. (see I told you I wrote this in August)

Rice continues its run and gets another bowl berth.

A&M continues its run and finishes in 3^rd place in the SEC-West.  Whoop!

Baylor wins Big 12 at 11-1 losing only to Texas. Makes NCAA playoff but that’s it.

Maryland has tough first year in the Big 10. 6-6.

UH.  Who gives a rat’s ass?

NCAA Playoff Teams:

Baylor

Alabama

Oregon

Michigan State

Your pal,

Red

[1]  Lest ye jest about the Dutchman, note that he still holds the all-time record for passing yards in a game – a record that has stood for 63 frickin’ years. I don’t think any current individual game record has lasted longer.  Tony Dorsett’s 99 yard run from scrimmage can never be broken only tied.  The same with Cordarelle Patterson’s 109 yd kickoff return and Antonio Cromartie’s 109 yd missed field goal return. The same for the numerous 99 yard completed passes.  For the record, I don’t count Jim Hardy’s 8 interceptions in one game (which predates the Dutchman’s record by one season) as an individual record for obvious reasons.