AKA – Red’s 2024 Season Finale – Super Bowl Pick.

It’s been a long season to say the least. Red did okay on preseason picks for the playoffs, was super in the Wildcard Round, 50% in both the Conference Semi-Finals and Finals and now has to pick the NFL Champion for the 2024 Season.

Red picked both the Chiefs and Eagles to win their divisions. Red has been riding the Eagles bandwagon for a while and shorting the Chiefs (and looking foolish).

The Chiefs sure look like the Team of Destiny in going for the third title in a row – a feat only accomplished by the Packers in the 30s and 60s. It would cap off a six year run of almost unmatched excellence in league history – with the prospect of an even longer run. Mahomes has the magic touch, a good offensive line, plenty of downfield targets and a running game that works because the passing offense is so fearsome to most defenses. Is there a way to stop the Chiefs’ offensive juggernaut? Maybe. Looked at objectively and ignoring the W/L record, the Chiefs offense has been rather mediocre all season – mostly doing just enough to win. KC has scored 30+ points exactly twice this season. They put up 30 in a squeaker against the lowly Panthers in November, and 32 against the Bills in the Conference final. They failed to score at least 20 points four times during the regular season. So on average the Chiefs offense is good for 22.6 ppg. That is just good enough to edge out the Cowboys for 16th place. The running game is even worse at only 105.3 yards per game – or somewhere close to the top of the bottom third of the league. Passing stats are better, but not spectacular. So how do they do it? Red is hesitant to say “smoke and mirrors” or blame the “refs” and the football gods. However, the gods are looking better and better as an explanation. The Chiefs have had multiple semi-miraculous finishes to close out games this season. Whether they win the Big One today may just depend on that. Red thinks the Chiefs may have gone to the well once too often.

The Eagles are averaging 27.2 ppg but the real stat in their favor is the massive advantage in rushing yards. They have gained 3048 yards on the ground which is about 1250 yards more than the Chiefs. The Eagles also sport a massive offensive line that looks to be capable of mashing any defense into the ground and is almost uniformly thought to be the best in the game in producing rushing yards. It’s no wonder that Saquon Barkley wanted to play for the Eagles. His greatness is only augmented by the beasts up front. His 2005 yards tops the league and Red isn’t even going to bother to scroll down to find the top Chiefs running back. This doesn’t even take into account the top two downfield targets in Brown and Smith who only had 135 catches between them because of the dominant running game – but who would likely have 100+ receptions on any other team. And both are pretty good downfield blockers to boot. That leaves Mr. Hurts who is dual threat – not quite on the level of LJ or Hayden, but has to be accounted for on every play. (Mahomes is no slouch but it seems clear that Andy doesn’t want him to run anymore than absolutely required). If the Eagles can put up 200+ rushing yards . . .

So the bottom line is here. Red is taking the Eagles to win in a shootout. Philadelphia 32 Kansas City 27. Down to the wire. In the immortal words of Al Davis, it’s time for the Eagles to “Just win baby.”

See you next year.

Love, Red