AFC South

At one time the division of excellence.  Who knows now?  The TV schedulers don’t seem to think much of the divisions as it is the only one without a division matchup in prime time in 2023. 

Houston –  Disclaimer – the Texans are Red’s favorite team despite their record of tepid mediocrity.  And here is a good stumper: Since the Texans came into the league, which team has won more playoff games – the Texans or the Cowboys?  I think you can guess the answer.  But on to this season.  Texans fans have a lot to look forward to this season.  Second year QB (and 2023 Offensive ROY) CJ Stroud has every appearance of being the real deal and with new found help from pickups Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, there are now legitimate A-players at RB and WR.  Beyond Diggs there are a solid possession receiver in Nico Collins and Tank Dell who can stretch the field.  This takes a lot of pressure off CJS and if the O Line holds up, this could be a very dynamic offense.  On the other side is at least a mid-pack defense who should be able to hold most teams to the twenties and give the offense a chance to win games.  And the defense could be better if top notch players like Derek Stingley, Jr., Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter don’t have to carry the load.  It seems that good players want to come to Houston to play for an up and coming coach in DeMeco Ryans.  The schedule has some legit opponents and time will tell if the Texans are able to compete with the likes of the Bills, Lions, Cowboys, Dolphins, Chief and Ravens.  And moving into the spotlight has its challenges, in the  second half of the season, the Texans will be playing on short rest several times.  But on a positive note, they have 3 primetime games in a row in weeks 9 to 11 including the Cowboys on MNF. Closing out the season with the Chiefs and Ravens (on Christmas Day) in weeks 16 and 17 is a tall order.  The Texans better have 10 wins under their belt by then.  Texans go 11-6 to take division.

Jacksonville –  Red has nothing really bad to say about the Jags.  A late season collapse in 2023 cost the Jags a playoff berth – which the Texans happily filled. Is Trevor Lawrence truly the franchise quarterback that his $275 million deal says he is?  The Jags may have the second best defender in the division in Josh Hines Allen who had 17.5 sacks in 2023.  But this does not look like a playoff team right now?  Hey, it could happen if the Jags can beat at least 3 of the 5 very good teams they will face (Texans twice, Bills, Eagles, Dolphins).  That’s a tall order.   Jaguars go 9-8 and are on the bubble. .

Indianapolis –  The Colts have talent, they have a good quarterback (we think) in Anthony Richardson who has only played in a small sample size of  4 NFL games.  The Colts also have a good coach, good stadium and loyal fanbase.  Red never discounts any team that has Flacco Joe on the roster.  FJ had the greatest start of any quarterback in NFL history leading his team to playoff wins in each of his first six seasons with a Superb Owl victory in the 2011 season.  Of course he got smoked by the Texans in the playoffs last year, but still won Comeback Player of the Year.  All in all, and despite the magnificent presence of FJ, it  adds up to another losing season.  Colts are 7-10.

Tennessee – Steady decline best describes the trajectory of this franchise as of late.  Just a few years ago, this team had Super Bowl pretensions that seemed credible.  Breaking out the Oilers throw-back jerseys against the Texans in Week 16 last season pretty much backfired with the Titans losing and none other than JJ Watt claiming that the Texans “get the uniforms back.  That’s how this works.  Sorr, not sorry.  Too bad, so sad.”  Which probably sums up the Titans’ 2024 effort.  6-11.