This is certainly an interesting division with the final two NFC teams left standing last season and the Superb Owl Champion Rams. Red wonders what odds you could have gotten on a Rams-49ers NFC title game parlay last September. In fact, the NFC West was the official Red’s NFL Division of Excellence in 2021 with three teams winning more than 10 games and making the playoffs. This season – maybe not so much.

Los Angeles Rams – The Rams seem unlikely to suffer a Superb Owl Champion next season slump. Matt Stafford still has a solid O-line despite the retirement of All-World tackle Andrew Whitworth. What else does MS have going for him? Well there is the incredible Cooper Kupp. Maybe the Rams can continue to target Kupp 12 times every game with Kupp drawing double coverage on every play. That certainly did not stop him last season from almost hitting 2000 receiving yards. And Van Jefferson is no slouch either – having averaged 16 yds/catch and 6 TDs. Throw a top tier TE in Tyler Higbee and a serviceable Allen Robinson and there just aren’t enough bodies in the defensive backfield to go around. Maybe what appears to be a lack of quality running backs won’t be a problem with a defense-stretching passing game, but it is a big question mark. The Rams defense was spectacular in the playoffs last season allowing just over 16 pts/game. But they have lost Von Miller, Darious Williams, Sebastian Joseph-Day and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo. In reality, if the Rams can hold teams to 20 points per game on average they will win a lot of games. Rams cruise to another 12-5 season and take the West.

San Francisco 49ers. Turmoil under center is the watchword as Jimmy Garrapolo is unexpectedly back with a big contract. Yet all the talk is about Trey Lance who filled in a bit last season. Jimmy G had a decent season and led an only above average team to the NFC Championship game – much to Red’s amazement. If that situation does not get resolved quickly – well expect a trade to whichever team’s No. 1 passer goes down first. There are some things to like here. Everyone might be talking about Deebo Samuel if Cooper Kupp hadn’t sucked all the oxygen on the west coast. DS accounted for over 1400 yards of offense and 51 first downs (that’s 3 per game for those keeping score). In the backfield there isn’t much behind Elijah Mitchell who had a decent rookie campaign. But the Niners need a credible pass-catching threat out of the backfield. Maybe someone will step forward. Outside of the division, the Niners play three other playoff teams (Chiefs, Bucs and Raiders). It could be a tough slog to 10-7 and another wild card berth.

Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals looked to be on a roll with a respectable 11-6 record despite some injury setbacks last season. Then the Rams crushed them in the first round of the playoffs. To say that Kliff Kingsbury is now on a short leash is an understatement. The main problem is the lack of offensive talent around Kyler Murray. At RB there is the frequently absent James Connor and then ?????. At WR there is newly acquired Marquise Brown, the suspended D-Hop and ????? At least Zach Ertz seems solid at TE. But with Mr. Murray sucking up all the money with his new mega-deal it seems that the Cardinals will be playing with one hand in the back pocket wondering where the wallet went. If Murray stays healthy, the team will win some games. They could even win some games with the well-seasoned and very football smart Colt McCoy under center. This team just seems worse than last season. It’s a tough slog starting with the Chiefs, Raiders and Rams. Cardinals will be somewhat lucky to go 9-8 and miss out on the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks – Well someone has to suck in this division. It is not that the Seahawks are a terrible team, they just don’t measure up to the competition. Hey, they had a good run and Red will be the first to call for the head of Pete the Cheat. His 13th season is indeed unlucky as Carroll is run out of town on a rail after the Seahawks finish at the bottom of the NFC West again with a 7-10 record.

The Division Red loves to hate. Red will keep it short here.

Green Bay Packers – The class of this division for a long time having won 8 of the last 10 division titles and only missing out on the playoffs in 2017. A-Rodg has proved himself to be pretty much an A-Hole in taunting the Packers over the off season – not to mention his vaccination deception of past seasons. But fortunately, Mr. Rodgers neighborhood is not exactly populated with teams likely to beat out the Packers in 2022. But there is no doubt the Packers are in a rut. They are a fantastic regular season team that chokes in the playoffs. Mr. Double MVP could not manage to rally his offense to score more than 10 points against a decent 49ers squad while the Packers defense turned in their performance of the year in limiting the 49ers to 13 points. Thirteen points should never win an NFL playoff game unless there is a blizzard or you are playing the Cowboys. This is Green Bay’s last shot at glory with Rodgers in the hold. Don’t hold your breath in Wisconsin. Green Bay still wins the North with a 12-5 record.

Detroit Lions – Red is really way out on the limb with this one. The Lions were bad at the beginning of last season with 8 straight losses to begin the Dan Campbell era. A 3-5-1 record to finish was an improvement and the Lions have made some upgrades over the off season. Goff settles in with a new offensive coordinator and maybe the best two-way back in the league with D’Andre Swift. If their run defense is as good as it has been in the pre-season, the defense will be able to tee off on opposing QB’s with edge rushers Hutchison and Harris. The key for the Lions will be winning games at home. Other than the Packers, the Lions only play three playoff teams from last season – Bills, Eagles and Cowboys. With a soft early schedule, the Lions could be 4-1 when they waltz into Arlington on October 23 after a bye week. If they knock off the Cowboys, people will start talking. Detroit goes 10-7 and makes it in as a wildcard.

Minnesota Vikings – Red hears that there is a team somewhere near Canada that plays football – but not very well. After a tumultuous off-season in which both Head Coach Mike Zimmer and GM Rick Spielman were shown the door (replaced by Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah), it seemed that major roster upheaval would follow. Well, not really. All the major pieces are still in place. A few bright spots (Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson on O and Safety Harrison Smith in the backfield) are surrounded by a lot of mediocrity and Red knows mediocrity having watched the Texans play for over 20 years now. The Vikings are mediocre again at 8-9.

Chicago Bears – Who cares? Certainly not Red. Bears are going nowhere and not in a particular hurry. Its a gloomy 6-11 season for the Chicago faithful.

The NFC South has produced three Superb Owl Champions in its current form. The Buccaneers twice and the Saints once. Both Atlanta and Carolina have made appearances but neither walked away with the Lombardi Trophy. No teams from the South will be getting their paws on the crystal football this year. Red actually thinks this could be the worst division in the NFL this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Red has to pick the Bucs almost by default. Their stock ticked up when Tom Brady quickly unretired much to the chagrin of Giselle. Did Tom think he wouldn’t have anything to talk about with the boys down at the club? Did he desperately need another $27.27 million? Did he just need some time away from home? Who knows. Certainly not Red. What Red does know is that this is not the same Bucs team that promptly exited the playoffs especially upfront on offense. Ryan Jensen, possibly the best center in the league, is out for most if not all of the season. Alex Cappa is gone via free agency and Ali Marpet surprised everyone by retiring at age 28 after making his first Pro Bowl. More than half of the line is gone and while there are some capable replacements in the wings, this does not bode well for the beginning of the season. Brady is a quick release QB but how quick will he have to be against players who may be gunning for the title of the “Edge Rusher who Ended Tom Brady’s Career.” There are still plenty of weapons around Brady. With Mike Evans all he has to do is get the ball in his general vicinity (ask Johnny Football about that) and Julio Jones is not quite yet tired and old. No team faces a more brutal opening stretch with the Cowboys, Saints, Packers and Chiefs. There is a real possibility this teams starts the season 1-3 or 0-4. A 2-2 start would actually be a good sign. Red says the Bucs go 0-4 and TB starts thinking about why he decided to come back. Tampa Bay goes 11-6 and exits stage left.

Carolina Panthers – There is a lot to like with Baker in the backfield. He was born and bread for this job. He is not in it just for the dough. Baker won’t be muffin his second chance to prove himself a capable NFL quarterback. The teams starts on a roll at 6-2 after Baker chews up the Brownies in week one and bagels the Giants in week two with no turnovers. Bundt then the team hits some rough spots. Those old doubts start to crepe in. But then he sees eclair path to more wins. More croissant patterns to get his receivers open and just pastel the defense wears down. The offense clicks and the Panthers macaron for the division lead. Red knows he is samosa be skeptical about a team like this. The Panthers surprise everyone when they schnenken to the playoffs with a 10-6 record.

New Orleans Saints – Red likes the Saints. There is not a single fan base in the NFL that is more deserving of winning another championship than the New Orleans faithful. If you are ever in New Orleans on a game day you will see what I mean. At least 2/3rds of the people are walking around in their black and gold (gold lame preferred for the female fans). The fans are loyal through thick and thin. Unfortunately this year is pretty thin. The Saints have nine playoff teams from 2022 on the schedule. Going 8-9 will be quite a feat.

Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons are still in the midst of a lengthy rebuilding process. The end is not in sight. The Falcons are not bereft of talent, but don’t expect Cordarelle Patterson to carry the load like he did in the first half of last season before disappearing. Red confesses that he has always liked Marcus Mariota. And a turn around is not impossible if Mariota can find some confidence. The Falcons have 6 to 8 winnable games before Thanksgiving. Maybe just maybe? Nah! The Falcons are a 7-10 club at best. Wait til next year.

NFC East

No longer the pathetic excuse for a professional football division known to mankind, the NFC East had a resurgence last year with two teams making the playoffs – albeit with two first round exits. Things shake up a little this season, but not much.

Philadelphia Eagles –  As noted below in the 2021 Season Wrap-Up, the Eagles started slow, finished fast and sort of coasted to the last Wildcard spot.  Jalen Hurts was fairly consistent most of the season. His reward for showing potential as the much desired “franchise quarterback” is getting Titans wideout A. J. Brown to go with DeVonta Smith.  Hurts also has the No. 1 rushing attack back from last season.  An attack that featured almost 800 yards from Mr. Hurts himself.  That needs to change.  A better than average defense probably gets better with the addition of Haason Reddick at edge and some other new talent.  But the Eagles did not beat a single playoff team last season.  They won’t face any likely playoff contenders until Week 6 when the Cowboys come to town (sadly too early for hard packed ice balls to be heaved at the Cowboy bench).  The tough stretch is Weeks 10-12 commencing with a trip to Indy and then the Packers and Titans at home.  A Christmas Eve showdown with the Cowboys in Arlington may decide the East.  Eagles go 11-6 and take the East.

Dallas Cowboys –  A flashy 6-1 start with only a loss to the defending champion Buccaneers on opening night put the Cowboys in good stead.  A 6-4 finish was enough to walk away with the East.   This season we get a Sunday night opener against the same Buccaneers.  With a decimated O Line they may need to have the basket ready for TB 12.  After that, six more 2021 playoff teams await. As usual, the Cowboys get the maximum national TV exposure allowed.  This year five primetime games are set including the Sunday night opener and four late afternoon games none of which are geographically called for.  At least, there is some justification based on the 2021 record for a team that hasn’t played in a NFC Conference championship game in 27 years and really hasn’t even been close to one since the tough loss to the Packers in the 2014 playoffs.  The Boys are better than some and that carries the team to a 10-7 record and probably a Wildcard spot.

Washington Commanders –  May Red first dis the new mascot.  Exactly what are they supposed to be commanding?  Commanding self control during November? There certainly have been no command performances of late.  Yes, they did sneak in as probably the worst team to make the playoffs in the modern era and actually had a legitimate shot at beating the Bucs in the 2020 playoffs.  And last year the Commandos did have a 6-6 record before losing to the Eagles and Cowboys twice over the next four weeks and finishing out of the money.  Red has a confession to make now.  He has always thought that Carson Wentz was going to be a really top notch NFL quarterback someday.  But after being run out of Philly and unable to get the job done in Indy he has been sent to the graveyard of NFL quarterbacks. No quarterback that was traded to the WFT has been worth a hoot since Doug Williams one brilliant season.  Red concedes that the Commandos have a legitimate rushing game with a serviceable O line and Gibson, McKissic and newcomer Brain Robinson in the backfield.  But this franchise is doomed as long as Dan Snyder lives or stays out of jail.  Washington is a mediocre 7-10.

New York Giants –  It pains Red to think about a once glorious franchise that has won 7 NFL Championships in its storied history.  But since Eli’s last miracle against the Pats in 2011, the Giants have made the playoffs once in 2015 and got drubbed by the Packers for the effort.  Giants fans would probably beg to have the chance to get drubbed in the playoffs this season.  No such luck.  NYG are better but not by much.  Red is generous in calling for the Giants to go 6-11.

Sometimes it is really hard to pick a worthy NFL DOTY winner. The criterion are that the DOTY cannot be chosen because of injury or suspension, but must be the player who contributed about as much to his team as a dead man would have.

A few candidates made some noise.

Trevor Lawrence put in a bid leading his team to a 3-14 record. He average an interception per game which were not offset by a measly 12 TD passes (especially since 3 of those came in the first week against the disorganized Texans secondary). Even with a pathetic QBR of 33.5, Red is always reluctant to saddle a rookie with a DOTY award.

Saquon Barkley also deserves consideration. He did miss 4 games but in the 13 where he showed up he managed to rush for all of 593 yards (about 45 YPG) and his 2 rushing TDs were matched by his 2 Receiving TDS. He did contribute to the Giants passing attack with a respectable 41 receptions for 263 yds. Mostly MIA for a terrible team.

Baker Mayfield – Let’s just say that he played so well that the Browns sent him packing and traded for none other than – wait for it –

THE 2021 DEADMAN OF THE YEAR – DESHAUN WATSON

This really needs no explanation. D-Bag Watson managed to embarrass himself and the Texans in all aspects of life, love and the pursuit of a happy ending. After a season in which he led the league in passing yards, yards per attempt and yards per completion and rushed for over 300 yards, Mr. Watson sulked, shamed and staggered his way to a full season riding the pine. The QB who had looked at one point like he might lead the Texans out of two decades of sucking interrupted by brief stretches of mediocrity slipped out of town in the dead of night – possibly wearing only a towel. The only good thing being that the Texans managed to get something out of the failed experiment. Red still remembers Dabo Sweeny claiming that “as good of a player he is, he is even a better person.” Well, Red thinks there is no better person to be crowned the 2021 NFL Deadman of the Year. Congratulations you earned it the old-fashioned way.

Red just deleted Twitter App from his phone.

Well fans, another NFL season comes to a close on Sunday with Superb Owl 56. Curious thing about the SB is that the average fan treats it as if there were no NFL champions prior that fateful day in January of 1967 when the Packers stomped the AFL Champion Chiefs in the “NFL-AFL World Championship Game.” So technically, the Packers were already the NFL Champions before the game began. That game was also played in Los Angeles at the venerable Coliseum. Although it drew a very respectable TV audience of 60 million, the stands were about half empty with fans being put off by the exorbitant $12 ticket price. The game was broadcast on CBS and NBC as networks for the two competing leagues. The game itself was competitive until halftime but a total snooze in the second half as the Chiefs looked overmatched. Rarely used Packers wideout Max McGee (who by his own admission was badly hungover from a night on the town) was the true star of the game catching 7 passes for 138 yards and two touchdowns. McGee had caught only 14 passes all season as the backup to Bowd Dowler. And it was not until Superb Owl 3 that the game took on that official moniker. But it is as if NFL Championships before the 1966 are discounted. There is no denying that the SB put the NFL on the road to the sports dominance that it enjoys today in the US (with a big assist of late from fantasy football), but do we really want to forget the hard earned championships of the Akron Pros (1920), Canton Bulldogs ((1922-23, Frankfort Yellow Jackets (1926) or Providence Steam Roller (1928) or the dominance of the Cleveland Browns in the 1950s – not to mention the 3 championships won by the Detroit Lions. Well, perhaps we do. Red for one has always found the very name Super Bowl to be more than just a little stupid but Red has been out of touch with popular opinion since Carter was president.

On to the game at hand:

Rams over Bengals.

Red doesn’t like this pick one bit, but he is of the mind that there will be a home-field advantage of sorts for the Rams. Realistically these days probably 80% of the crowd are corporate bigwigs, NFL hangers-on and other high muckety-mucks with the actual fans of the teams getting squeezed out or priced out. Note: tickets on the resale market are topping $50,000 in some cases. But being at home all week and playing in your home stadium has a plus. Not that the Rams have been all that great at home (5-3). And 4 of their 5 wins were against Jacksonville, Detroit, Seattle and Chicago. The only playoff team they beat in LA was the Bucs. In fact, during the regular season the Rams only beat two playoff teams – the Bucs again and the division rival Cardinals. And the Rams had a relatively easy playoff schedule with the sagging Cardinals, the overrated Bucs and the overachieving Niners. Red thinks the Rams chance rest entirely in the hands of the league’s best receiver this season – the incredible Cooper Kupp. If Kupp is over 110 yards receiving, the Bengals are in trouble. The smart money says that the Rams will make the Bengals account for the run and that will be the key. Red thinks that the Rams will throw early and often and use that to open up the running game if they get the lead. The Bengals should be able to contain the Rams running game unless they have to chase Kupp & Co. all over the field.

Meanwhile in Ohio, the Bengals were up an down in 2021 – putting together one 3 game win streak all season long – a convenient 3 game winning streak to end the season. They had 4 wins over playoff teams – Stealers twice, Raiders and Chiefs. Their path to the SB was considerably more difficult having to best the No. 1 and 2 seeds on the road. The Bengals have a much more balanced offense with a dynamic running game. Joe Mixon is far and away the best running back on the field on Sunday. JaMarr Chase isn’t Kupp but he can match him on a good day. If the Bengals can run and keep Stafford off the field, they certainly have a chance.

As far as the defenses go, there is no question that LA is the superior unit. Defense wins championships – except when it doesn’t. Although Red has tried mightily to talk himself out of this one, the Rams’ defense and home field advantage carry the day.

As for betting, excluding SB Uno in which there is no record O/U available, the betting boys tell us that to this point the O/U is 27 -27. Talk about your toss up. The last 3 games have all fallen short of the line (including the Patriots 13-3 stinker over the Rams in 2019 – please God, spare us from a repeat of that punt fest). The latest O/U is 48.5. Red is totally ambivalent about that number but if he had Kyle Rittenhouse pointing an assault rifle at him he would take the over (and then try to kick that little piece of shit’s ass). The Rams are a 3.5 favorite as Red writes. Red thinks this is a 3 point type of game either way. If this season’s playoff history holds true – one team is kicking a game winning field goal as time expires. Red’s call is Los Angeles 27 Cincinnati 24.

Last week Red was 2-2 on straight up picks and hit big on his number 1 pick of the over in the Chiefs/Bills barnburner. That was a weekend of football that will not soon be forgotten. Unfortunately for Red, he missed most of it for various reasons but did get to see the possible end of Tom Brady’s career. On to a short version of this week’s matchups.

Chiefs over Bengals. The Bengals are the best story of the year. Very few prognosticators – including Red – game them a chance of making the playoffs much less winning their division and very much less making it to the AFC title game. But all good stories must end and in playoff football all but one story ends with a loss. As tremendous as the Bills/Chiefs game was last week, this one could top it. You have two offenses running at peak efficiency with the best older young QB and the best young young QB going toe to toe in nuclear combat. Don’t be surprised if Mahomes and Burrow combine to throw for over 850 yards on Sunday. And the Dutchman – God rest his soul – will be wondering if his all time single game passing record could be in jeopardy if this one goes to OT. The Bengals have to stop Travis Kelce who has been all but unstoppable of late. He might tie Jerry Rice’s record of 8 playoff games with more than 100 yards receiving unless the Bengals hogtie him. Meanwhile the Chiefs have to find a way to hold down Jamar Chase – something almost no team has done this season. No matter what it is, take the Over in this one. Kansas City 49 Cincinnati 43.

Rams over 49ers. Red just wasn’t at all on form with the Rams this season. Or the 49ers for that matter. But then Red just looked back and realized he forgot to post his picks for the NFC West at the beginning of the season. Red will be honest here and claim that he had the Cardinals winning the division and the Rams as an outside shot at the playoffs. Reverse that and Red is a fricking genius. It is worth noting – but not of particular importance here – that the 49ers have dominated the Rams in recent years winning 6 straight games. If the Rams have a chance on Sunday it will be because of their surprisingly effective defense getting to and pummeling Matt Stafford – not the most mobile of QBs. The Rams vaunted offensive line has been battered of late, but if all-World LT Andrew Whitworth plays to form they just might survive the coming onslaught. The Rams cannot afford to get way behind as they did in both games against the 49ers this season. In Week 18 they managed to stage a comeback, but that is not something you want to do with the Superb Owl on the line. Rams have to count on Jimmy G. to throw up a couple of ducks and their defense to hold the Niners to under 21 points. Don’t look for a high scoring game. But stay away from the O/U in these most unpredictable of playoff times with two top-tier defenses. Red does think the Niners can cover a 3.5 spread but he wouldn’t bet the F-150 on it. Los Angeles 23 San Francisco 20.

For the Wildcard Weekend, Red was 4-2 correctly picking the Bengals, Bills, Bucs and Chiefs and missing out on the Rams and 49ers wins. Red was happy to have missed out on the 49ers whomping of the Cowboys. Red also can’t say he is surprised by the continuing late-season swoon of the Cardinals who were never in the game and need to seriously think about moving on from the Kingsbury experiment. KK probably should be coaching at the Division II level where he could win national championships.

The only real surprise of the weekend was the tortured ending of the Niners-Cowboys game. A quarterback draw with only 14 seconds on the clock was an incredibly risky maneuver. Especially if your team is not familiar with the rule that requires the Umpire to set the ball for play. With 17 seconds on the clock, the play probably works. But the Cowboys did not deserve to win the game anyway and set a new NFL record of 11 playoff appearances in row without reaching the conference championship game. With a 4-11 playoff record since the last NFL championship in 1995, Red continues to wonder why this franchise gets such favorable TV scheduling and fan interest. The Cowboys have been a low-mediocre franchise for 26 years and counting.

On to this weeks picks:

Titans over Bengals. Not since the days of the Boomer and Icky had the Bengals tasted playoff victory. That record setting drought is over and seems unlikely to be repeated with Burrow and company running a potent offense. But the elation in the Queen City will be short-lived. The Bengals last playoff victory before Saturday was against this franchise in the 1990 playoffs when the Bengals topped the then Houston Oilers – who were unceremoniously run out of town by Bob Lanier so that one of his buddies could get a new Houston franchise – something which Red has never really gotten over. Suffice it to say that Red has a soft spot in his otherwise hard cold heart for the Titans who should have never been forced out of Houston. More than Red’s emotions are at play here because the Titans are getting All-World running back Derrick Henry back in the line up – and presumably healthy after being out for 10 weeks after suffering a serious foot injury in the Week 8 win over the Indianapolis Colts. Notably, Henry still ranks in the top ten for rushing yards even though he hasn’t played since October. The extra week of rest means the Titans are as about as healthy as they’ve been since training camp after an injury-plagued season. The Bengals barely escaped with their lives against a fairly mediocre Raiders team. That won’t work against the Titans who beat 8 teams with a winning record this season (an NFL record) all while using 91 different players (another record). The Titans are formidable and if Tannehill doesn’t make mistakes and it is hard to seem them losing. The Bengals real hope is that offensive line can give Burrow enough time to make big plays. That is a tall order against a very good Titans defense. The 3.5 line doesn’t particularly excite Red, but he likes the over at 47 if the weather cooperates. This could be the second highest scoring playoff game of this season – even if it doesn’t come close to the 96 point overtime barnburner (more on that later) between the Cardinals and Packers in 2009. Or it could be a Titans blowout. In Vrabel’s four years of leading the Titans, the team has gone 4-0 coming off of a bye and won those four games by an average of just over 20 points per game. The Titans won’t win by 20 as the Bengals make a furious rally but fall short. Tennessee 41 Cincinnati 34.

Packers over 49ers. Nothing like a Saturday night game in the frozen north. At least the Packers have had the good sense to heat the playing surface at Lambeau Field since 1967 when the franchise installed electric coils underneath the playing surface to keep the ground soft in frigid conditions. That was true during the “The Ice Bowl” – 1967 NFL Championship game between the Packers and Cowboys – but the sub-zero temperatures overwhelmed the recently installed heating system. Since 1997 a network of underground pipes filled with antifreeze has kept the turf soft and playable even in the worst conditions. But it will still be cold (by some accounts at least 10 degrees colder than its ever been in San Francisco) and that of course favors the Packers. All credit to the Niners for making the best Cowboys team in quite some time look like a bunch of also-rans on Sunday. That’s much more credit to the Niners than Dak gave in his press conference to the Cowboys “faithful” in Arlington who pelted the Refs (and some Cowboy players) with trash after the game. But the Niners played about the best possible game they could play and still almost lost. Meanwhile up north, Green Bay is notorious for folding like a card table in the playoffs. Edging up on the Cowboys, the Giants have made 7 playoff appearances without reaching the Superb Owl since 2010. Notably, the Niners took them out in 2012 and 2019 – a meaningless stat in the fast-changing world of professional football. Green Bay won’t be giving up sacks or handing out penalty first downs like the Cowboys. That is Green Bay won’t beat themselves like the team from North Texas. Take the Packers giving up 5.5. Green Bay 24 San Francisco 17.

Rams over Buccaneers. Now that Matthew Stafford has the playoff hex off his back he can turn to beating a real team. In sunny Florida, the Bucs haven’t beaten a real team since knocking of the Bills in Week 14. And they lost to the Rams in LA early on. The Bucs have had inexplicable let downs at times this season and are pretty beat up. The Rams probably have the best defense left standing and a good enough offense to win a close game. Red thinks this one won’t be that close as the Rams are the team with the best chance to beat the Bucs out of any team left. Their defense is formidable. The Rams will shut down Mike Evans leaving Brady to rely on Gronk – but there isn’t enough magic left there. Remember how the Bucs blitzed on every down against the Chiefs in the Superb Owl. If the Rams are sending 5 or 6 on every other play their defensive coordinator should be fired. Throw in a combined 6 sacks by Aaron Donald, Von Miller and crew against a beat-up Bucs offensive line and Brady will be lucky if he isn’t carried off the field in a basket. Los Angeles 31 Tampa Bay 19.

Chiefs over Bills. Talk about a tough call. The Bills are more than capable of winning this game if they play like they did against the Patriots. Seven drives with seven touchdowns will win you the game almost every time if you can put 11 defenders on the field. Some have called it the most perfect offensive game in NFL history. With accolades like that confidence is high (and should be) in Buffalo – that is, until you think about having scored all of 6 points against the Jaguars – 6 points – the Jaguars – really? Which Bills team shows up on Sunday night? Red thinks Josh Allen has rounded to form and can handle whatever the Chiefs defense throws at him. Meanwhile back in Kansas City we have a team that beat six playoff teams, but was also awful early on and later masterful in closing out the season on a 9-1 run. The vaunted Chiefs offense just bizarrely disappears at times – like in the first 20 minutes of the Stealers game. The Chiefs first 5 possessions were – punt, punt, interception, punt and a fumble resulting in Stealers touchdown. But after that – touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown – capped off with a punt when the game was firmly in hand. That kind of opening won’t work against the Bills. The Chiefs can’t fall behind by 24 (like they did against the Texans in 2019) – the Bills are not the Texans. No team is really the Texans – not even the Texans. If the Titans and Bengals don’t put on a barnburner (there’s an interesting origin story there – but perhaps for another time), it seems likely that – weather permitting – these two teams will. Hold on to something. The over seems pretty steep at 54.5, but Red thinks 60 is a more realistic number given the capability of these two offenses. Kansas City 41 Buffalo 38.