AFC North

Sometimes known as the Black and Blue Division, for the last decade or so it has just been the Blue division with little or nothing to show for its efforts. It was the only division to send 3 teams to the playoffs in 2023 and every team in the division finished with a winning record – something that had not been done since 1935.   The Browns and Stealers got smoked in the Wildcard round, but the Ravens made a game effort in the AFC title game but still fell a touchdown short of the SB against the mighty Chiefs.   

Baltimore – Everything should be in place here.   The best quarterback in the league not named Mahomes who has yet to prove himself in the playoffs.  Derrick Henry still seems to have gas in the tank.  Wideouts are likely second rate but with LJ as a threat on every play, just an average set might do.  Ravens defenses always seem to be good enough.  And they may just have the best kicker in the history of the NFL in Justin Tucker.  Opening night will tell us a lot with a prime time matchup against their nemesis – aka the Kansas City Chiefs.  Overall it’s a tough schedule and the league has not done the Ravens any  favors with a closing stretch that could be brutal.  The Ravens play the Giants at home in Week 16, followed by a Saturday game against the Stealers and then travel to Houston to face the Texans on Christmas Day.   That’s three late season games in 11 days.  Red calls BS on the league scheduler.  Ravens go 12-5 to win the division

Cincinnati –  A lot of tough breaks last season for the Bengals.  They get a break with a 4^th place schedule in 2024.  Week 2 in Kansas City will tell us a lot about the Bengals.  And once again the schedulers see to want to wreak havoc on another AFC North team.  The Bengals also get 3 games in an 11 day stretch with a trip to Arlington to face the Cowboys on Monday night in Week 14, followed by a short trip to Nashville for the Titans in Week 15 and back at home on Thursday night against the Browns in Week 16.  That’s the culmination of a tough stretch that begins in Week 10.  Joe Burrow needs to return to form and stay on the field chucking bombs to his excellent Nos 1 and 2 wideouts Chase and Higgins.  The Bengals gave up 24 or more points in 7 of their 8 losses mostly feasting on the weak sisters (wins against the Niners and Bills stood out before a 3 game losing streak killed their momentum).  Bengals probably sneak in an a weaker AFC at 10-7. 

Pittsburgh – Perhaps the most loyal fan base in the AFC gives the Stealers a boost.  The cynical might say, “What else is there to do in Pittsburgh?”  The answer is  . . . Red is not stupid enough to answer that question.  And something is definitely going on in the league office when it comes to scheduling AFC North games.  Between Weeks 11 and 18, the Stealer play all of their division games against – which as previously noted means 4 games against  playoff teams from 2023.  Throw in a game on the road in Philly and the Chiefs at home on Christmas Day and the Stealers are playing 6 of 8  games against what should be quality opponents.  Good luck with that.  Stealers are just on the outside looking in at 9-8. 

Cleveland – Which leaves us with the Browns who Red has on good information are JD Vance’s favorite team.  Let me couch this in as nice a way as Red can – the Browns will stink this year.  The lounger the season goes, the worse the Browns will be.  They won’t be in the chaise.  It may be the worst Browns season sofa – and that’s saying a lot.  Take a divan into their schedule and you will not seat a lot of wins –  especially in their sectional rivalries.  An ottoman might disagree, but Red is his own man.  Although he might love to seat more, Red will settee number of wins  for the Browns at around 6. 

“The simplest explanation for why Republican politicians behave like a bunch of bigots is that they are, in fact, a bunch of bigots.”

Amanda Marcotte

Needs no explanation.

The latest from “Team Trump” – whatever that is – smacks of desperation. As always, Red is there for you to read between the lines.

Friend (or Rube, Mark, Pigeon, Moron – You choose),

Our justice system has utterly COLLAPSED (because I don’t have a lap dog Attorney General anymore).
If the leaked reports are believed to be true, then at any moment, Soros’ bought-and-paid-for prosecutor (there’s no evidence of that but the rule is invoke Soros’ name whenever possible) may very well INDICT President Trump for having committed NO CRIME at all (other than the obvious ones)!
Not just our movement (bowels are blocked from too many Big Macs), but our entire country is counting on YOU in what is surely the darkest chapter of our nation’s history (the Civil War was just a blip).
Now more than ever before, we need to PROVE just how many patriots are willing to peacefully (just like on January 6th) defend (or die if necessary) our movement and SAVE our Republic (meaning my skin).
President Trump (you know I wrote this) made himself loud and clear: He will NEVER SURRENDER our great country to the raging left-wing mob (only the raging right-wing mob need apply).
Are YOU with him, Friend (meaning open your wallet- otherwise take a hike)?
Please make a contribution of just $1 today (if you are a freaking cheapskate) to cement your place in history as a FOUNDING DEFENDER (a/k/a someone dumb enough to give me money) of our movement during these dark times (really dark for me).

Thank you,
Team Trump

What started back in the pre-season heat of August is finally coming to a close as we approach Valentine’s Day. Some day the Super Bowl might not be played until after Spring Training starts. But first a bit of a recap.

Here were Red’s preseason picks:

AFC Division Champs – Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Colts

AFC Wildcards – Chargers, Raiders, Bengals

NFC Division Champs – Eagles, Rams, Packers, Buccaneers

NFC Wildcards – Panthers, Lions, 49ers

AFC Champions – Bills over Chiefs

NFC Champions – Eagles over Rams

Superb Owl Champions – Bills defeat Eagles

In retrospect, Red did not do too well. He only had 8 of the 14 playoff teams and is scratching his head about picking the Panthers, Colts and Raiders to make the playoffs. On the other hand, no one probably predicted the Rams being a doormat or the Packers collapse and the Lions were only a win away from fulfilling Red’s 2022 NFL Team of Destiny prediction. On to the big game.

Chiefs over Eagles –

Like most of the U.S. and a good part of the globe, Red always hopes for a good game. The Chiefs certainly failed on that front in their last SB outing by getting utterly trounced by the Buccaneers. But the Eagles turned in a fine performance in defeating the Patriots 41-33 in a back and forth game and overcoming a 505 yard passing performance from the supposedly retired Tom Brady (not to mention career highlight games from LeGarrett Blount and Danny Amendola). That was also the last time the two No. 1 seeds met in the championship. This one has all the makings of a high-scoring back and forth game, but in reality the games with No. 1 seeds (SB 11 was the first under the current seeding system) matching up have been rather disappointing. The best have been the Niners and Bengals in No. 16 and the Patriots and Seahawks in No. 49. All too often these highly anticipated games between the powerhouse teams have been complete snoozefests with millions of Americans turning to Masterpiece Theatre reruns. Red would prefer to watch All Creatures Great and Small at a later date.

As for the game itself, Red gives the Chiefs offense a slight edge over the Eagles. Expect Andy surprise everyone by pulling some weasels (rabbits be damned) out of the red baseball cap. If we don’t see at least three fairly complex trick plays in addition to the usual imaginative offensive scheme, Red will be sorely disappointed. The injury limitations for P. Mahomes really should call for some offensive wizardry. Mahomes seems more and more comfortable with MVS as an alternative to Kelce and McKinnon is a reliable safety valve and more. Pacheco needs to approach 90 rushing yards to keep the Eagles honest. The offensive line is a top 5 unit and as always if Mahomes gets over the love affair with his arm and doesn’t try to force balls into double and triple coverage, the Chiefs should be good for 30+ points. The Chiefs were an impressive 6-2 against playoff teams this season with losses only to the Bills and Bengals (since avenged). They are ready.

The Eagles are no slouches when it comes to scoring either. The Eagles beat every playoff team they faced this season with the exception of a 40-34 loss to the Cowboys when J. Hurts was out for a 5-1 record in quality games. The Eagles have the best wide receiver tandem in Brown and Smith and an unexpectedly good running game even subtracting Mr. Hurts’ yardage. Good balance and solid play calling have had them among the scoring leaders all season. The Eagles failed to top 20 points only twice all season and they won one of those games anyway.

Defenses for both teams are also close. The Eagles brutalized the Niners in the NFC Championship game so expect them to come hard at Mahomes. The Chiefs defense was on top of its game against the Bengal picking off two Burrow passes and sacking him 5 times. The better defense in the 4th quarter may be the key to winning on Sunday.

The bottom line is hazy here. The Chiefs had the best offense in the league based on just about any available measure. The Eagles probably would have been No. 2 but for the injury to Hurts. Both offenses are better than both defenses. The Eagles have the best pass rushing defense, but the Chiefs have the No. 1 pass-blocking line by some measures. As usual, this one probably comes down to turnovers, stupid penalties (ask the Bengals about that) and a couple of lucky or unlucky bounces of the ball. There is very little daylight between these two teams.

The only bet Red might consider would be taking the over at 50. Both of these teams play fast and if it is close no one is going to be sitting on the ball.

Kansas City 32 Philadelphia 30.

“Well, what I would do is, we would, we have tremendous military capability and what we can do without planes, to be honest with you, without 44 year-old jets, what we can do is enormous, and we should be doing it and we should be helping them to survive and they’re doing an amazing job.”

Donald J. Trump – when asked by Fox News on what he would do differently than Pres. Biden on Ukraine.

This makes about as much sense as any of his other incoherent, fact free and stream of consciousness rambling.

For the Divisional Round, Red was 3-1 only missing out on the utter collapse of the Buffalo Bills. That loss was especially hurtful because Red had picked the Bills to win it all this season. His second choice in the AFC was Kansas City which is still alive despite a less than inspiring performance against a game Jacksonville team. Red was particularly happy that the “Red Rule” was back in place. If not familiar, that Rule simply reads “Score 13 points and beat the Cowboys.” It was violated repeatedly this season as the Cowboys cranked out points, but it was back in play when it was really needed. On to the penultimate week of the season.

Chiefs over Bengals – A lot of this prediction depends on the state of the right ankle of one Mr. P. Mahomes. Question for the day: Is a high ankle sprain better or worse than a low ankle sprain? Question for tomorrow: When the Bengals go after Mr. P. Mahomes lower legs, will the redoubtable Chad Henne be able to step up again? Before answering, Red must give all imaginable props to Henne for coming in as cold as any quarterback since say, hmm Brock Purdy, and leading the Chiefs on the game-defining 98 yard drive that really set the tone for the Chiefs. Answers: Yes and yes. Then there is Travis Kelce who continues to break his own records (14 catches in a playoff game) and a defense which never let T. Lawrence get comfortable and played good enough to win. And of course there is Mr. Mahomes himself – who is a better quarterback on one leg than any quarterback in the history of at least one franchise (Yes, Texans Red is talking about you). Of course, the Bengals have a very different story line than the Cinderella tale played out by the Jags over the last half of the season. The Bengals started slow and so far have finished like a steamroller. Ask the Bills who were never really in the game on Sunday. The Bills missing Von Miller and their No. 1 run stopper allowed the Bengals relatively pathetic running game to resemble something akin to the reincarnation of Larry Csonka and Mercury Morris. And with Mahomes hobbled, there seems to be no question that Joe Burrow is the top quarterback in the AFC this week, (while somewhere Josh Allen is still wondering what hit him). Red does not count the Bengals out in any way. They have been the best team in the AFC since about Week 6 and have everything needed to win this game. But the Chiefs have home field and are playing in the AFC Championship for the 5th straight year. Add to that, the fact that Mahomes has never beaten Burrow and you have the makings of a very close win. Hold on to your war bonnets. Kansas City 34 Cincinnati 30.

Eagles over 49ers – The Eagles choked the Giants to death on their dust on Saturday. No one can really be too surprised by that outcome. They got ahead early and then literally ran the Giants into the ground with 268 yards rushing on 44 attempts. For once J. Hurts did not have to carry the load which was handled nicely by Gainwell and Sanders. The Eagles defense played extremely well with the lead. It is easy to get the lead when your opponent’s first six possessions are Downs, Interception, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt. S. Barkley was a non-factor once the Eagles were up by 21. So this game really did not tell us too much about the Eagles except that they can readily dispatch inferior competition. On the other side, the Cowboys were not supposed to be inferior competition according to the pundits. Turns out the pundits were wrong. This is a team that continues to underachieve in the big moments and Sunday night was no exception. The Niners were methodical and frankly rather unimpressive on offense. The Niners defense is the real reason that they are playing for the NFC crown. They have been the best defensive unit this season. And when you make whopping errors like Dak P. did – well, turn out the lights. Losing Tony Pollard definitely hurt the Cowboys, but still 76 yards on the ground is not going to cut it. All that said, the Niners should have their hands full with Mr. Hurts and company. The Brock Purdy story has been rather incredible, but all incredible stories eventually seem to realize that they are in fact incredible. The Eagles were the best team in the NFC despite their late season stumbles. The Niners were the second best team. These are the matchups fans want to see (except in large parts of North Texas). This is likely to be a low scoring game decided by whoever wins the 4th quarter. In other words, a complete toss up. Philadelphia 19 San Francisco 17.

Last week Red chose the 49ers, Chargers, Bills, Vikings, Bengals and Bucs to win. And for his effort Red was 3-3. The Vikings and Chargers had legitimate shots at winning. The Bucs had a legitimate shot at complete embarrassment and pretty much took it. Despite his rather mediocre showing from “Super Wild Card Weekend” Red trudges on. Again, let’s take them in order.

Chiefs over Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence and the Jags pulled out a minor miracle last week by turning the ball over 5 times, falling behind 27-0 and still managing to win largely because of a gutsy decision to go for 2 points when a simple try would have closed the gap to 3 points. That allowed a last minute field goal to seal the victory of the “licking their wounds on the way back to California” Chargers. Never let it be said that the Chargers will not disappoint you given half the chance. Meanwhile the Chiefs have not really disappointed their supporters in the playoffs since getting butt-whipped by the Buccaneers in SB (insert Roman Numeral here) in 2020 playoffs. Sure the Chiefs lost to the Bengals in a barnburner of an AFC Championship game last year to a team that had not won a playoff game in the previous 30+ seasons, but it was a close game. And the whipping that the Bucs put on the Chiefs was largely because the Chiefs were decimated in the offensive line and Patrick Mahomes was running for his life on practically every play. The Jags have an average defense at best and second-rate secondary. That does not inspire abject fear or bode well for the fearsome Chiefs passing attack. The Chiefs pass to set up the run and always seem to manage to have a running back ready to pounce. At the beginning of the season, it was thought to be Clyde E-H, but the Chiefs quickly turned to I. Pacheco who has looked great since taking over in Week 6. And many forget about Jerrod McKinnon who has 56 receptions and 9 receiving touchdowns. Mahomes spreads the wealth around as 11 players have receiving TDs this season with only All-Pro TE T. Kelce in double digits with 12. Simply put, you don’t know who is going to beat you on any given Sunday (but its more likely to be Kelce). If Mahomes overcomes his love affair with his arm and doesn’t make stupid plays, the Chiefs are damn near unbeatable. It’s been a magic year for the Jags, but the smoke machines sometimes fail and the mirrors always need polishing. Kansas City 31 Jacksonville 17.

49ers over Cowboys – The Cowboys must be on a high after finally beating Tom Brady and winning a road playoff game for the first time in 30 years. And while Red puts no real stock in such matters, the Cowboys playoff record in San Francisco is spotty at best. Coincidentally, the Cowboys last road playoff win before Monday night was against the 49ers in 1992. Expect the 49ers to rely heavily on their excellent rushing attack against a Cowboys defense that is mediocre at best in stopping the run. That sets up likely offensive Rookie of the Year Brock Purdy for the short passing game that will negate the Cowboys fearsome pass rush. If the 49ers can hold the Cowboys defense to 2-3 sacks and limit the hurries and knock-downs, the Cowboys will be in trouble. On the other side, the vaunted Cowboys rushing attack has been a bit suspect despite cranking out 128 yards (aided by garbage time) against the Bucs. Can the Cowboys play another near perfect game (except for the kicking disaster) with no turnovers, only 1 sack and Dak with 4 passing TDS and a 143.7 QB rating? Who knows, but they certainly could win with those kind of stats. Face it, the Bucs were probably the crappiest team of the 14 in the playoffs even with TB at the helm. The Niners are probably number 4 or 5 and playing on par with the Eagles in the NFC. They have two days extra rest and a decided home field advantage. The Cowboys are playing on a short schedule and have to be wondering what time zone they are in. As noted before, Red is perfectly okay with the Cowboys winning one playoff game every decade. They did that last week. San Francisco 24 Dallas 20.

Bills over Bengals – This is clearly the hardest call of the Divisional round games. The Bengals have been playing as well as any team over the last half of the season despite having some trouble with the Ravens last week. But for Tyler Hundley’s goal line foolishness, the Bengals could be sitting at home this weekend. The Bengals have everything it takes to reach the Superb Owl. Meanwhile the Bills have been less than impressive over the last half of the season living on a diet of one score wins. And they were certainly less than fearsome in having the Dolphins (led by a 3rd string quarterback) take them down to the wire. All those who had heard of Skylar Thompson before the beginning of the season, please raise their hand. Red thought so. Josh Allen needs to step up on Sunday. He has been a turnover machine the last half of the season and seems to be suffering from Patrick Mahomes Disease (main symptom is love affair with arm) or alternatively, holding on the ball too long and refusing to just throw it away (sacked 7 times by a less than awesome Dolphins defense). This one probably comes down to turnovers and special teams play – the most unpredictable of factors. As for the other bizarre factors – including the expected appearance of Damar Hamlin and the Bengals enormous shoulder chip about the cancelled game and the decision to not play this one at a neutral site, your guess is as good as anyone’s. And unfortunately, while it may snow on Sunday it will likely be too warm for a true blizzard game. Buffalo 28 Cincinnati 27.

Eagles over Giants – The Eagles should beat the Giants. Almost every other team in the playoffs (except for the Bucs and Vikings obviously) should beat the Giants. But D. Jones and S. Barkley are probably the most unique running combination in the playoffs right now and the Giants are on the rise. Predicting an Eagles victory is assuming that the Eagles will try to keep Jalen Hurts primarily behind the line of scrimmage or only running for the sidelines when absolutely necessary. Realistically, all indications are that the Giants are peaking and the Eagles are on the decline. And there is the third matchup jinx. It’s hard to beat any team three times in one season – mostly because if you made the playoffs despite losing twice to a division rival it’s fairly likely that you don’t completely suck. Red thinks this one comes down to the best one/two receiving combo left in the playoffs in Brown and Smith (not to mention a more than capable TE in Goedert). If Miles Sanders still has some gas in the tank and can have a decent day on the ground, it will be hard for the Giants to contain the two big WRs. But this one pretty much comes down to the shoulder of Mr. Hurts. It’s playoff time, the choices should be difficult. Philadelphia 23 New York 21.

Red is sticking with the Bills winning it all.  The Bills, Chiefs and Eagles are the only teams Red views as being able to beat all comers (except of course when matched against one another).   Every other team can lose depending on the breaks.

Red includes the Niners in the un-invincible group based on the rather poor track record of QBs in their first playoff game and the even worse record of rookie QBs in their first playoff game.  According to J. Breech (my new favorite NFL analyst):  “Since 2002, quarterbacks making their first career playoff start in the wild-card round are 12-35 straight-up, including 1-4 last year and that one win only happened because two first-time playoff starters were facing each other (Joe Burrow vs. Derek Carr).”  But Red you say, “Isn’t Geno Smith also making his playoff debut?”  A rather large turd plops into Red’s morning latte.   We shall see which playoff newbie pulls through on the west coast.  

Jaguars/Chargers and Vikings/Giants are likely the most entertaining games from a disinterested fan viewpoint.   Chargers cannot stop the run and Jags cannot stop the pass.  At 47, I would take the over and run.  Meanwhile, the Vikings and Giants both have negative point differentials and earn the highest O/U of the week at 48.   Red likes a parley here.  Bet the over on the first game and then all or nothing on the over on Sunday. 

Red also thinks that it is just possible that the Bucs run the Cowboys out of the building with the ghost of Dandy Don singing “Turn out the Lights” in the middle of the 4^th quarter.  But if not look for the Cowboy’s usual last second loss scenario to play out.  As the old joke goes, this one is like watching your ex-wife drive over a cliff in your new Cadillac.  On second thought, Red isn’t sure that analogy makes any sense at all.  Maybe the Iran-Iraq war will have to do.

Finally, Red was so excited about the Bills/Dolphins game that he booked an 11:45 tee time on Sunday.  His over/under right now is about 87 –if playing from the old man tees.  Probably taking the over on Sunday.