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No Football until August, yet somehow we will survive.

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AKA – Red’s 2024 Season Finale – Super Bowl Pick.

It’s been a long season to say the least. Red did okay on preseason picks for the playoffs, was super in the Wildcard Round, 50% in both the Conference Semi-Finals and Finals and now has to pick the NFL Champion for the 2024 Season.

Red picked both the Chiefs and Eagles to win their divisions. Red has been riding the Eagles bandwagon for a while and shorting the Chiefs (and looking foolish).

The Chiefs sure look like the Team of Destiny in going for the third title in a row – a feat only accomplished by the Packers in the 30s and 60s. It would cap off a six year run of almost unmatched excellence in league history – with the prospect of an even longer run. Mahomes has the magic touch, a good offensive line, plenty of downfield targets and a running game that works because the passing offense is so fearsome to most defenses. Is there a way to stop the Chiefs’ offensive juggernaut? Maybe. Looked at objectively and ignoring the W/L record, the Chiefs offense has been rather mediocre all season – mostly doing just enough to win. KC has scored 30+ points exactly twice this season. They put up 30 in a squeaker against the lowly Panthers in November, and 32 against the Bills in the Conference final. They failed to score at least 20 points four times during the regular season. So on average the Chiefs offense is good for 22.6 ppg. That is just good enough to edge out the Cowboys for 16th place. The running game is even worse at only 105.3 yards per game – or somewhere close to the top of the bottom third of the league. Passing stats are better, but not spectacular. So how do they do it? Red is hesitant to say “smoke and mirrors” or blame the “refs” and the football gods. However, the gods are looking better and better as an explanation. The Chiefs have had multiple semi-miraculous finishes to close out games this season. Whether they win the Big One today may just depend on that. Red thinks the Chiefs may have gone to the well once too often.

The Eagles are averaging 27.2 ppg but the real stat in their favor is the massive advantage in rushing yards. They have gained 3048 yards on the ground which is about 1250 yards more than the Chiefs. The Eagles also sport a massive offensive line that looks to be capable of mashing any defense into the ground and is almost uniformly thought to be the best in the game in producing rushing yards. It’s no wonder that Saquon Barkley wanted to play for the Eagles. His greatness is only augmented by the beasts up front. His 2005 yards tops the league and Red isn’t even going to bother to scroll down to find the top Chiefs running back. This doesn’t even take into account the top two downfield targets in Brown and Smith who only had 135 catches between them because of the dominant running game – but who would likely have 100+ receptions on any other team. And both are pretty good downfield blockers to boot. That leaves Mr. Hurts who is dual threat – not quite on the level of LJ or Hayden, but has to be accounted for on every play. (Mahomes is no slouch but it seems clear that Andy doesn’t want him to run anymore than absolutely required). If the Eagles can put up 200+ rushing yards . . .

So the bottom line is here. Red is taking the Eagles to win in a shootout. Philadelphia 32 Kansas City 27. Down to the wire. In the immortal words of Al Davis, it’s time for the Eagles to “Just win baby.”

See you next year.

Love, Red

Trump has cracked the code

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With his 1500+ pardons of January 6 traitors and insurrectionists, Red thinks Trump has finally figured out how to break the Constitution (more or less legally) and create his own band of jack-booted thugs to scare the living shit out of his opponents in DC.

It’s a simple plan, Trump can tell these scum of the earth to do whatever he pleases in DC or on federal property anywhere in the country and simply pardon them – or better yet not even have them arrested. That’s the first step.

Then he brings a test case to the Supreme Court asking them to extend the Presidential pardon power to state crimes. A servile and spineless majority of the Court agrees. The Court could avoid that by just holding that Trump ordering violence against his enemies is within the scope of his official duties and wash their hands of the whole matter.

As a result, Trump will be free to unleash a violent and unauthorized “militia”of Proud Boys, Oathkeepers, Rednecks and Nazis (yes they call themselves that) on anyone who disagrees or stands in his way. News reporters, members of Congress, state and local politicians, loudmouths like Red and anyone else in the way of his insatiable thirst for money and power will be in the line of fire – literally perhaps.

What can we do? Red wishes he had the answer.

Red’s NFL 2024 Conference Championships Pick

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Red has a special guest this week as he welcomes the BIG DOG to the blog for his Conference Championship pick. What say ye, Dog?

Thank you, Red,

First, some interesting items:

Saint Tom- 29 years as head coach.   12 conference title appearances.  5 wins.   Trounced a couple of times but also had some bad luck there and in the Super Bowl.   

Belicheat 29/13/9.   

Reid 25/12/5.   

Walsh 10/4/3.  Add seifert and you get 18/9/5 (the 97 appearance was a Mauricci).

Gibbs 12/5/4.   Bonus points for doing it w 4 different QBs.  (Not counting round two under Danny boy.)   Missed playoffs twice w 10-6 record and good teams back before it turned into a 12 or 14 team thing 

Andy is in some rarified air.   

RED ADDS:

Chuck Noll enters the room (22/7/4)

Noll: Hey Tom, how’s it going.

Landry:  Who let this SOB in?

And now back to the BIG DOG.

On the Texans and the refs-  Mahomes was on the wrong end of Brady calls in 2018 and 2020.   Now he’s on the fun end of Mahomes calls.   I don’t agree with either penalty.  But neither is a surprise.   I’m more focused on nine sacks (I counted nine, stats might say eight) given up, missed kicks and generally not turning yards into points.   Which tends to be made harder when you give up sacks and miss kicks.   At least they won the bill O’Brien invitational again- 6-2 in the wild card game, all at home, all in the early time slot on Saturday.   Followed by 0-6 in the divisional round with another loss at the site of Bill O’s Waterloo.    This one was competitive, like the first one at Baltimore.   Bookending four beat downs.   

Speaking of sacks- they’ve made a semi comeback in the playoffs.   As a kid of the 80s I’m a turnover and sacks junkie.  Nothing more fun than watching QBs get put on their ass.   Hope it continues this weekend.   

This weekend we get a couple of interesting stars.   We have the five year rule in play- since the merger a coach /QB combo who doesn’t win the Super Bowl in their first five years as coach /primary starter never does.  It works pre-merger too if you factor out Stram/Dawson or count an AFL title.    Harbaugh/Flacco and Dungy/Manning did it in five.    McDermott/Allen are in year seven.  So are Harbaugh/Jackson but they’ll now get to 8.    The sweet spot seems to be 3 or 4 years.    

The Chiefs have been the Bills’ roadblock.    They’ve won at home and on the road.   With the better team and the lesser team.   Neither team looked great last week.  Buffalo was content to turtle up and let Baltimore find a way to hand them the game.   Minus 2012 that has been a Harbaugh/Ravens specialty.   And it worked.   It won’t tomorrow.  

The Chiefs are close to a threepeat as we’ve seen since the 49ers in 1990 – home game, won the first matchup, opponent with backup QB.   The Giants needed a fake punt and a late fumble to win 15-13 and deprive us of a Steve Young Super Bowl start (Montana suffered the two year injury late).  Here, the Chiefs are at home and favored, where I expected the Bills to be -2 or so.    The teams that overcome their playoff roadblock going back to the 70s tend to be at home.  Buffalo isn’t.   Andy and Mahomes are 4-2 in this game.   Two losses (and one win) in overtime.   Buffalo needs to beat them in this game before I believe they actually can.  The BIG DOG will take Kansas City.

RED pops in again:

Red is taking the BIlls -getting the ball first in OT and winning the game.   Buffalo 31 KC 24.

Take it away DOG!

On the other side the Commanders matter for the first time in 30 plus years.   The first thing I think of with these teams is the body bag game.  And how Washinton went back to Philly two months later and killed them and ended the Buddy Ryan era.   

Lots of talk about rookie QBs going 0-5 in conference title games.   Which makes me wonder why guys who do this for a living don’t remember Dieter Brock as a 34 year old rookie in 1985.   

All six of them (counting Brock) lost and the only two not to get trounced were Flacco Joe (threw big pick six when he had a chance to lead game winning TD drive ) and Shaun King (execrable performance but only lost 11-6 behind elite Tampa defense, and he might’ve won 6-5 if dungy had turtled up).  Daniels could be the first to win.  Philly should win this game pounding the ball.  Paradoxically they do better if Hurts has less passing yardage in the playoffs.    The Commanders seem to have something going.  Not a team of destiny- I don’t buy that crap or that teams play better with “something to play for” like the LA wildfires.   They are rolling offensively, can get pressure on Hurts, and can win a shootout even if Barkley breaks one off.   This is kind of a sentimental pick because of how much I enjoyed the Gibbs teams.   Hurts is also injured- if his mobility is limited it’ll be a factor.   The stats say Philly should win by two scores.   The spectre of injury is there for Daniels – it sunk the Niners when Purdy was a rookie.  But I think Daniels has another big day and makes a lifetime of enemies in Philly.  

Red one last time. Red thinks Barkley and the Eagles defense carry the day. Philadephia 29 Washington 19.

The last days of sanity

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Red is moving into another decade this week and while the future is less and less of a problem for him, he does have friends and family to worry about. So far from washing his hands, Red will continue to speak out when the outrageous happens – or at least some of the time – because it’s probably going to be outrageous every day after lunch on Jan. 20.

Get ready for 4 years of the endless grift that is a Trump presidency. Get ready for government of the billionaires, by the billionaires and for the billionaires. Get ready for incompetence in our national defense and the halls of “justice.” Get ready for more inflation. Get ready for a recession. Get ready for a pandemic that will be denied. Get ready for an assault on the most vulnerable members of our society. Get ready for the scorn of the civilized world. Get ready for foolish military misadventures. Get ready for the alienation of our allies. Get ready for a triumphant Putin. Get ready for the glorification of dictatorship. Get ready for the worst.

Red’s 202(4) NFL Conference Semi-Final Picks

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For those of you paying attention and thinking about throwing some hard earned money at the misnamed “gaming” industry this weekend, you might note that Red was 6 for 6 straight up last week.

For those of you playing the line, Red was 5-0-1, with only the Commanders/Buccaneers matchup being a push. Red doesn’t typically pick base on the odds, but you might just want to think about that.

So on to the misnamed “Divisional Round” – a round in which two teams who were not division champions could face each other. Red will go to the mat in fighting to call this weekend the Conference Semi-Finals – only because that is exactly what these games are. On to the picks:

Texans over Chiefs. Call Red crazy – he doesn’t mind because he probably is for making this pick. Let’s look back at the Texans’ painful playoff history against the Chiefs.

In the 2015 playoffs the Chiefs walloped the 9-7 Texans at NRG 30 to ZIP. This game was pretty much over after Knile Davis took the opening kickoff 106 yards for a score. Ugh. Red had almost forgotten that long Saturday afternoon.

What Red clearly remembers is the beacon of hope that shone in the first 18 minutes of the Texans/Chiefs game on Jan. 12, 2020. The football world was shocked when the Texans went up 24-0 on the Chiefs. Normality was restored by halftime with the Chiefs leading 28-24 in route to a 51-31 rout. It would take several years for the Texans to shake off that ass whomping.

So why should this year be any different? The Chiefs are not the same juggernaut they have been for the past many years. The running game is suspect. Mahomes has to carry the team – which would be a dream come true for most. CJ Stroud seems to have shaken off his sophomore slump and if Joe Mixon can bruise and cruise for over 150 yards and a brace of TDS, the Texans have a chance. But more critically, Red thinks the Chiefs have run out of rabbits and maybe even the hat to pull them out of. A team only gets some many miraculous finishes in one season. And the Texans showed real signs of life last week against a very good Chargers team. It’s a close call. Houston 27 KC 24.

Lions over Commanders. The Lions are the best team in the NFC by a long shot. Red thinks that only the Rams might have a chance against them if they make it through a frigid Sunday afternoon in Philly. Goff is playing at his best (ask the Vikings), Gibbs is bruising defenses and the Lions defense is good enough to hold down the fort. The Commanders have had a good season (meaning any season the Cowboys don’t win the NFC East) and certainly should be thinking they have a chance. But Red isn’t saying that. Take the Lions forget about the spread. Detroit 45 Washington 17.

Eagles over Rams. People are raving about how the Rams played down the stretch. But tell Red this, other than beating the Bills at home in a wild 44-42 game that could have gone either way – who did the Rams beat before waxing the overrated Vikings in the Wildcard round? The Patriots, Saints, Jets, 49ers, Cardinals – no one of consequence. Red knows you can probably say the same thing about the Eagles. And while Red doesn’t normally place much meaning in a regular season matchup, the Eagles did dispatch the Rams with some ease back in November. Only a garbage time touchdown by the Rams kept that game from looking like more of a rout. The Rams had no answer for Mr. Barkley who had 255 yards on 26 carries. Red will let you do the math. If Hurts has just an average game, with the best back in the game right now controlling the ball, Red just doesn’t see the Rams as being able to keep up. It may be close for a while, but the Eagles close out strong. Philadelphia 31 Los Angeles 20.

Bills over Ravens. Red hates picking this one. These are two teams who both deserve a shot at the Conference title. The Bills have been pretty consistent all year with but a few bumps in the road (maybe the loss to the Texans doesn’t look so bad and losing to the Ravens and Rams is no mark of disgrace). The Ravens started the season 0-2, then corrected course for a while beating the Bills 35-10, then it was up and down but come mid-December they have been really unchallenged and playing their best football. This one all comes down to who has the better game Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. The difference might be a single sack, an interception or a turnover on downs. This one is down to the wire as it should be. And is too much to ask for a blizzard game? Buffalo 31 Baltimore 28.

Red’s Wildcard Weekend Picks

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Red will keep it succinct.

Texans shake of the rust and upset Chargers. Herbert does not yet have playoff mojo. CJS does. Low scoring suits the Texans 24-17.

Ravens demolish the sagging Stealers who foolishly stick with Russell Wilson. Mr. Jackson secures more votes for his 3rd MVP award. 42 – 10.

Bills win a laugher over the overachieving Broncos. 38 -6.

Eagles take down Packers in a close one. 24-23.

Commanders win first playoff game of their new non-offensive era. Bucs cry in the parking lot. 25-17

Rams continue hot streak against the Vikings. 28-24.

Red’s 2024 Weekly NFL Rankings – Week 17

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RED  Week 17

Red missed a lot of action last week what with the holidays, multiple family visits, overeating, and general EOY listlessness.  But he springs back into action for your final 2024 weekly ranking because after this week it’s the playoffs and none of this will matter. 

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1).  Not quite as dramatic this week.  Who will sit for the meaningless game against the Broncos?
  2. Minnesota Vikings (14-2).  Turns out Darn Old Sam has the Vikings on the verge of a top finish in the NFC and a 1st round bye.  The Lions may have something to say about that.
  3. Buffalo Bills (13-3).  Nobody wants to play the Bills in the playoffs – well, except for maybe the Chiefs.
  4. Detroit Lions (14-2).  Did not look impressive in eking out a win over the more or less hapless 49ers on Monday.  The defense has to play better or it could be one and done for the Cats. This week against the Vikings is a must win heading into the playoffs for the Lions to prove they’ve got the stuff. (with apologies to Cheech and Chong).
  5. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3).  Who needs Jalen Hurts against the hapless Cowboys?  Certainly not the Eagles.  But they may need Kenny Pickett this week.  Eagles fans should be pleading “please, please, please do not let Saquon Barkly play even if the single season rushing record is within reach.”
  6. Baltimore Ravens (11-5).  Outscoring their opponents by a 3 to 1 mark over the last 3 games is something you might call an indication of the havoc the Ravens could wreak as a lower seed in the playoffs.  The Texans are the likely first fodder on the route to an AFC championship game.
  7. Washington Commanders (11-5).  The Commanders could win 12 games.  The Commanders could win 12 games.  The Commanders  could win . . .  No matter how many times he says it, Red still can’t believe it.
  8. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6).  Chargers could make some noise, but realistically they are the 4th best team in the AFC.  But it’s a funny game with an oddly shaped ball.
  9. Green Bay Packers (11-5).  Red sees the Packers, packing it in, packing their bags and heading home in the first round.
  10. Pittsburgh Stealers (10-6).  Hopefully, the Stealers are happy just to be in the playoffs because not much else has gone right lately with three losses in a row against the better competition. And there is only better competition in the playoffs.
  11. Los Angeles Rams (10-6).  It looked very unlikely at the mid point of the season and even less so after a 1-4 start, but the Rams are in.  The offense has not been clicking for 3 weeks, but that could change.  
  12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7).  Maybe?
  13. Denver Broncos (9-7).  The Broncos may catch the Chiefs during a bye week for the big stars which could put the Broncos into the playoffs just in time to get stomped by a real team.
  14. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8).  A hard luck season deserves a fairy tale ending.  But fairy tales are just that.
  15. Houston Texans (9-7).  When Tank Dell went out, the lights went out in Houston.  C.J. Stroud has struggled down the stretch. Among the many ugly losses in franchise history, the utter ass-whomping the Ravens gave them on Christmas day has to rank way up there. A playoff win would be miraculous at this point.  
  16. Seattle Seahawks (9-7).  Are better than some teams playing in the postseason.  The inexplicable loss to the Giants early on has the Hawks at home for the new year.
  17. Miami Dolphins (8-8).  It just doesn’t appear that Tua will ever stay healthy enough to pull this team through.
  18. Atlanta Falcons (8-8).  They’re not dead yet!
  19. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)  Is anyone really surprised the Cards tanked?
  20. San Francisco 49ers (6-10).  Game until the end, but the end is nigh. Well about half past nigh anyway.
  21. Indianapolis Colts (7-9).  Defense let them down time and time again this season. And for the last time against the Giants?  Ugh. Oh wait, there is another game in which the Colts D can still suck.
  22. New Orleans Saints (5-11).  Will get to watch the Superb Owl from the comfort of Bourbon St. Drink up boys!
  23. Dallas Cowboys (7-9).  If you think having Dak back is going to lead this team out of the wilderness next season, well you have another think coming.  Red just wishes he could rank the Cowboys lower than this, but he is a fair man.  Not a good man, but a fair man.
  24. Carolina Panthers (4-12).  Are you still reading? What is your problem?
  25. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12).  The parade of 4-12 teams continues.
  26. Chicago Bears (4-12).  Not the worst of the 4-12 teams is damning with faint praise.
  27. New York Jets (4-12).  Aaron Rodgers is not the most sacked QB of all time.  So the Jets have that going for them.
  28. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12).  The only way is up from this season.  There are some reasons for hope in Brian Thomas, Jr. and the return of Trevor Lawrence. And they play in a shit division.
  29. New York Giants (3-13).  Red would really have liked to rank the Giants last, but they are such a disappointment to him – what with winning a game and all.
  30. Cleveland Browns (3-13).  Another year, another shitty Browns season.
  31. Tennessee Titans (3-13).  If you don’t have anything nice to say – you probably should be apply to be a bloviator on ESPN.
  32. New England Patriots (3-13).  Even Red is surprised that the Pats are the laughing stock of the league. But he’s still laughing.

Red’s 2024 Weekly NFL Rankings – Week 15

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There is a lot of complaining about the MNF double-headers this season. To be fair, no one complained much when there was only one double-header on opening weekend. But this year, there will be four – capped off in week 15 starting with the Bears at the Vikings and followed 30 minutes later by the Falcons at the Raiders. Red doesn’t know about you, but maybe one of these two games might actually offer some excitement. Red isn’t holding his breath.

On to more important things.

  1. Detroit Lions (12-1) – It took a lot to beat the Packers, but beat them they did.
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) Running out of different ways to win games on the last play.
  3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) Beating all comers right now. That is, if the Panthers rate as a “comer.”
  4. Minnesota Vikings (11-2) Red hasn’t believed. Red may be wrong.
  5. Pittsburgh Stealers (10-3) Stealers have not won in Philadelphia since 1965. LBJ was president and the Vietnam War was heating up. LBJ is dead. Vietnam is more or less an ally and the Stealers will have to wait another 8 years.
  6. Buffalo Bills (10-3) Josh Allen is the first player in NFL history to rush for 3 touchdowns and throw for 3 touchdowns in a single game – and yet it wasn’t enough. Bills defense is cratering.
  7. Green Bay Packers (9-4) Losing the close games to good teams does not bode well for a playoff run.
  8. Baltimore Ravens (8-5) Oh how the mighty have fallen. Edgar, Allan and Poe are ready to shout “Nevermore.”
  9. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5) Ignore the Chargers at your peril.
  10. Seattle Seahawks (8-5) Four wins in a row. The hottest team not named the Lions, Chiefs or Eagles.
  11. Denver Broncos (8-5) Continuing to surprise Red – and most of the league.
  12. Washington Commanders (8-5) Favorable schedule down the stretch has this team on the inside track for a wild card spot.
  13. Los Angeles Rams (7-6) Matthew Stafford is 11-1 in December since moving to the west coast.
  14. Houston Texans (8-5) Since stomping the Cowboys, the Texans have been decidedly mediocre.
  15. Tampa Buccaneers (7-6) Control their fate in the weak NFC South.
  16. Arizona Cardinals (6-7) What has happened to Marvin Jr.?
  17. San Francisco 49ers (6-7) Their injury list would make a grown man weep.
  18. Indianapolis Colts (6-7) Every game is now a playoff game for the Colts.
  19. Atlanta Falcons (6-7) Every other game is now a playoff game for the Falcons.
  20. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) “If I only had a defense” – a new verse for the Wizard of Oz classic song.
  21. Miami Dolphins (6-7) Maybe?
  22. New Orleans Saints (5-8) Maybe not.
  23. Chicago Bears (4-9) Definitely not.
  24. Dallas Cowboys (5-8) Red predicts a 1-3 finish for the team in Arlington. Will they ever win a home game?
  25. Carolina Panthers (3-10) Red can say this, the Panthers are the best 3-10 team in the NFL.
  26. Cleveland Browns (3-10) At least they are entertaining.
  27. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10) The Jaguars have won 3 games? Was Red asleep?
  28. Tennesee Titans (3-10) The AFC South has more than its fair share of 3-10 teams.
  29. New York Jets (3-10) Maybe 3-10 is the new parity?
  30. New England Patriots (3-10) Yep.
  31. New York Giants (2-11) Sad times in the Big A.
  32. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) Red is not betting on the come.

Red’s Predictions for 2025 – More or Less Texas Version

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Red has always thought of himself as mildly psychic or perhaps just mildly delusional.  But Red had a dream last night in which he saw the future of Texas in the year of our Lord 2025.

1.            The Texas Longhorns will not win the National Championship.

2.            Fans will claim the Horns got robbed.

3.            The Texas legislature will fail to pass a bill banning all cannabis products.

4.            Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick will commence to throw a hissy fit and bandy threats about.

5.            The Muskrat will be involved in a near fatal Tesla crash and will blame it on the godless leftist radicals.

6.            Another deep freeze – another power grid failure.

7.            Austin housing market will continue to nose dive and office vacancy rates will soar.

8.            Bastrop will go to hell as the Muskmelon moves in.

9.            The Dallas Cowboys will miss the playoffs for the second straight season.  Panic ensues.

10.         Trump will visit Texas at least 4 times accompanied by the Muskellunge. Crowds will be decidedly smaller but  several attendees will die from heat stroke and/or be crushed trying to get a look at their emperor god.

11.         Matthew McConaghy will not run for governor.

12.         A new TV series set in Amarillo will be in the works starring John Travolta as a used car dealer.

13.         Dismantling of the FDA causes massive listeria outbreak when MAGATS begin to drink raw milk.

14. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is appointed as ambassador to Bhutan. No, he is totally snubbed.

15. Houston Texans win the AFC South with 12-5 record.

16. San Antonio Spurs return to the NBA playoffs.

17. Texas Governor Abbott is injured in a mysterious wheelchair accident involving dwarves.

18. A major art theft hits a noted Texas museum.

19. El Paso attempts to secede and join New Mexico.

20. When Trump attempts to invade Mexico, swarms of immigrants swoop across the Rio Bravo.