Tag Archives: Denver Broncos

Red’s NFL Picks – AFC West

The Wild Wild West.  A dangerous place for the pundit.

Raiders. Raiders would have almost certainly been playing in the second round of the playoffs if not for losing first and second string quarterbacks and suffering a season-ending loss to the Broncos that cost them a division title and home field advantage.  The only team in recent memory to win a playoff game with a third stringer under center was the Texans in 2011 with T.J. Yeates.  But they beat the Bengals so it almost doesn’t count.  And nothing against Connor Cook, but when your QB is 18 of 45 with 3 INTs and rating of 30.0, it’s going to be a long plane flight back to California.  With even an average Derek Carr day, the Raiders had a decent shot at beating a Texans team with Brock Osweiler at the helm.  So Carr (brother of David – who, by the way, still sucks) and most of the offensive weaponry is still intact.  And they now have “The Beast”. With that addition, Latavius Murray might become the league’s best third down back and catch about 60 passes when it really counts. The Raiders defense is the weak link here – which is a surprise on a Jack Del Rio coached team. The Raiders end their championship drought when they clinch the title in the last game  against the Chargers.  The emaciated ghost of Al Davis croaks “Just win Baby” as the champagne pours.  But sadly, Walking Dead Al continues to roam the soon-to-be abandoned corridors of Oakland Coliseum hoping for an Uber ride to Vegas for all eternity.  Oakland takes home the silver and black cake with an 11-5 record.

Chiefs. It’s hard to bet against the Chiefs.  Red thinks they got the steal of the draft in Patrick Mahomes.  He looks like the real thing and may be starting by November.  Of course he will have to find someone other than Travis Kelce to throw to.  And C.J. Spiller and the running back committee will have to take charge at times.  A lot rides on the Thursday night opener in Foxboro.  If they knock off the champions, then the Chiefs may swoop in on their war ponies and beat enough of the weaklings and mediocrities on the schedule to grab a wildcard spot.  A humiliating loss could send the team into a tail spin.  Red likes the Chiefs chances.  Kansas City grabs the last AFC Wildcard spot with 9-7 record.

Broncos. New head coach Vance Joseph is going to be a winner.  But sorry Vance, probably not this season.  Yes the Broncos defense will keep them in a lot of games.  But this may be a year that Red’s Rule (score 13 points and beat the Cowboys) takes a road trip to Colorado.  Neither Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch is going to drag this offense over the goal line anywhere near enough times for the Broncos to have a shot at playing in January.  Having the injury prone Jamaal Charles and C.J. Anderson as your best options in the backfield is not encouraging.  Denver stumbles out of the gate and are lucky to finish 8-8.

Chargers. Red has always like this franchise.  Everyone in Southern California seemed so happy at the games sitting half-naked in the warm sunshine of Jack Murphy Stadium. The fans were in fact beautiful and so was the way the Chargers played the game. The offense was exhilirating and the high scoring games were entertaining.  Having Red’s favorite LT for a decade helped cement his love for this franchise.  But that love has been a one-way street.  Red has repeatedly picked the Chargers and they have rewarded him with disdain.  So the best thing Red could do for the Charges is shit all over their prospects for this season.  That he will gladly do.  Charges are woeful in their new home.  Just how stupid do you have to be leave San Diego?  You’ll go  4-12 and like it.

 

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Red’s NFL Picks – Super Bowl

“If it’s the ultimate game, how come they’re playing it again next year?”

Duane Thomas – former running back for the Cowboys, Chargers, Redskins and Hawaiians (WFL).

According to legend, Thomas was overwhelmingly selected as the MVP of Superb Owl VI after the Cowboys stomped on the Dolphins for their first of five wins. But because of DT’s prickly relations with the press (basically ignoring them all season), Larry Klein of Sport magazine which presented the award, named Roger Staubach instead.

Red Rates Himself – For Conference Championship Week Red was 2-0. For the season Red is now 60-46. What money goes to Vegas stays in Vegas – unless you have Red by your side.

Your Ultimate Pick of the Week: Panthers over Broncos. This should be an interesting game. Of course, Red thought that two years ago when you had an incredible Broncos offense facing a tremendous Seahawks defense. My how the worm has turned. This one features an anemic Broncos offense going up against a very good Panthers defense. And a superb Panthers offense facing off against a world-beating Broncos defense. In the modern NFL, Red typically bets on the offense.

First, let’s consider the Broncos – who have won 11 of their 14 victories by seven points or less in the regular season and playoffs which are the most such nail biters by any team in the Superb Owl era. In other words, the Broncos have been winning by the skin of their mouth guards no thanks to the offense. Even PMS was forced to acknowledge this. “Like I’ve said from the get-go, our defense has gotten us to this point. Let’s make that very clear.” On the positive front, the Broncos have five wins against playoff teams having beat the Chiefs, Vikings, Packers, Patriots and Bengals. That is nothing short of incredible in the modern NFL. With probably the best secondary in the league, the Broncos can afford to focus on stopping the run – something they will have to do against the Panthers who happen to have a very good running back playing under center. But then there is that fairly awful offense led by the aged PMS. Last game PMS launched a bomb (maybe 40 yards in the air) against the Pats just as if to say, “I can still do this.” Well maybe so, maybe no. The Broncos have to establish a semblance of a running game to keep this one close and keep PMS from being taken off the field in a basket. CJ Anderson must break at least 2 long runs (he had one against the Stealers and one against the Pats) and the Broncos need 120 yards of rushing. With that, the excellent Panthers defense will free up some space for PMS. If it’s a close game, don’t bet against the Broncos.

 

Moving on to the Panthers, there is almost nothing bad to say about this team beyond the ugly home uniforms. Even that won’t be a factor since they are the visiting team on Sunday. The only real mystery is how the Falcons managed to beat them. With a defense already good enough to win a bunch of games, the Panthers added a top-ranked offense cranking out 31 points per game and never looked back. The Panthers beat three playoff teams – Texans, Packers and OTNA’s – two of whom prevailed in the PEFAPFD that were the AFC South and NFC East this season. So until the playoffs, the Panthers had not really beaten down on a good team other than the Packers – but boy did they bring down the hammer in those games. But more than any other team except perhaps the Patriots, the success of the Panthers rests on the shoulders (and legs) of one man – MVP to be Cam Newton. The Panthers rushing game is what has kept defenses honest, but it is the extraordinary playmaking ability of CN that grabs the headlines. The only real question for the Panthers is will CN somehow wilt in the spotlight. That seems improbable given his demeanor, however, he was somewhat shaky the last time he played for a championship at Auburn. If there is a second set of shoulders here it would be the very capable ones of Greg Olsen. He is clearly the second-best TE in the game with a 14.3 yards per catch average based on his ability to catch and run.

The one stat that really sticks out as the difference between these teams is the +20 turnover margin for the Panthers as opposed to the -4 margin for the Broncos. It is probably weak-kneed, trite and lame to claim that the game will come down to turnovers – except that it probably will. I do expect the Broncos defense to acquit itself respectably in this game, but the likelihood is that the Panthers get a short field at least once and stop a promising Broncos drive at least once simply because of the way the ball bounces.

Red’s record on Superb Owl bets is admittedly spotty. The Panthers giving up 6 is a lot given the Broncos record of keeping games close. The 44.5 O/U is more attractive. Red likes the under here – which means the game probably is going to OT.

Final Prediction of the Season. Carolina 24 Denver 17.

 

Red’s NFL Picks – Conference Championships

“The stash of games is getting low.”

Said many years ago by an old stoner friend of Red’s (who loved football almost as much as he liked the weed). Indeed, it is. Indeed, it is.

Red Rates Himself – For Round 2 of the Playoffs Red was 2-2. For the season Red is now 58-46. Omaha, Omaha.

Your Rocky Mountain High Pick of the Week: Broncos over Patriots. Red is breaking tradition and all the rules by picking the Broncos – even though the Patriots were his preseason AFC Champ. If this game were in Foxboro, Red would call it the other way. If you didn’t notice, every home team won last week and every game was a “one score” game in that one score by the losing team would have won or tied the game. Red expects the same this weekend. There will be no blowouts of the last teams standing but the home field advantage in this type of game is enormous. The Patriots strategy last week was to pretend like the solid front 7 of the Chiefs defense simply did not exist and throw, throw some more and keep throwing the entire game. There was a mere pretense of a running game – not surprising since the Pats were down to retired retread Steven Jackson as their main option in the backfield. No knock on Jackson who had a solid career but expecting him to come out of retirement a couple of weeks before the playoffs and rush for 100 yards is a little much even for the Pats. That strategy will not work against the best defense in the league. Miller, Ware, Jackson and Wolfe will be turned loose on Brady. Pressure will be the key. So what will Belicheat pull out of the hat this week in the face of the team who gets after the QB better than anyone else? If Red knew that he wouldn’t be working for a living.   Red expects the Broncos’ sputtering offense will need to score 24 to win and they can do that with smart game management and a decent game from the disappointing C.J. Anderson. The Broncos need at least 130 yards on the ground and the clock chewing that entails, if they are going to win. And PMS needs to not suck – a tall order right now. Red likes the Broncos plus 3, but the O/U at 44.5 scares him. Denver 24 New England 23.

Your Wildwood Weed Pick of the Week: Panthers over Cardinals. Cardinals surprised Red last week. He thought that the Packers wild finish would finish off a team that had to be wondering “What the Hell just happened?” But Larry Fitzgerald put an end to Red’s dream of correctly picking both Superb Owl teams – so now he hates them. On the other side, the Panthers have simply been the best team in the league all season. Notwithstanding the Seahawks furious comeback in the second half, what the Panthers did to the Hawks in the first half ought to be illegal. Red expects a similarly fast start to this one – again followed by a spirited rally that falls short. And although, Red would desperately like to see the first ever all Mountain Time Zone Superb Owl (with the only two teams that could possibly make that happen), he can’t go against a Carolina team that has bested all comers but one – and looked pretty snappy doing so. Red likes the Panthers giving up 3 and the over at 44.5.   Carolina 35 Arizona 29.