Tag Archives: New England Patriots

Red’s NFL Picks 2018(sort of) – Division Championships

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After going 0-4 on Wildcard Weekend, Uncle Red decided to skip the poorly named Divisional Round but would probably have gone 3-1 (picking the Chargers foolishly) if he had bothered.  But he didn’t – so no countee!  But today is a bit slow and Red is a bit down in the mouth and what better time could there be to make some more foolish choices and almost cap off a season of sub-mediocrity in the prognostication game.

AFC Championship –  Chiefs over Patriots.  How can the Pats have possibly played in 8 consecutive AFC Championship games?  The odds of that happening in the modern NFL are pretty low – given “parity”, injuries, the odd bounce of the ball and bad calls.  But they have done it – so a tip of the ancient sombrero to Bellicheat and gang who call it up year after year after year after year . . . shampoo, rinse, repeat.  But notably, the Pats have only won 2 NFL Championships during that run and both of those were very close calls in which the opposition essentially self-destructed (Pete the Cheat’s absurd call on the goal line that kept the Seahawks from winning in the 2014 playoffs and the Falcons total meltdown to lose in OT after 2017 season.   Is there any real reason to pick against the Pats here?  Probably not.  The offense was absurdly efficient in destroying the Chargers last week.  Here is the one glitch in Perfect Pats Playoff Performance.  They haven’t won a road playoff game since 2007 and the only time they have won the AFC title game on the road in the B&B era is when they played at Pittsburgh in 2001 and 2004 playoffs.  First, no wonder Stealer fans have a special place in Hell reserved for the Pats.  And second that is, of course, ancient history in the NFL scheme of things.  However, more recent history does not look that great for the Pats.  They were 3-5 on the road this season and all 5 road losses were to non-playoff teams.   Bad weather will probably mean nothing to the Pats and will more likely impact the Chiefs wild offensive scheme.  The latest forecast seems to have the precipitation moved out by Sunday – but with brutally cold (below 10F) temperatures.

As for the Chiefs, they were Red’s preseason pick to win it all and he certainly is not going back on that call.  Mahomes is almost certain to win the MVP in his second season.  He is playing with confidence.  Even after the wild 43-40 loss to the Patriots in the regular season, it seemed to Red that the Chiefs were walking off the field thinking “Yeah, we can play with these guys” while the Pats looked like “What the hell just happened and how did we win that one?”  The Chiefs simply have to score early and often before the Pats defense makes the inevitable in-game adjustments.   And maybe just maybe the Chiefs defense is playing with some confidence after ass-whomping the Colts last week.  All in all it adds up to Red picking Kansas City 31 New England 24.

NFC Championship Game – Saints over Rams.  No weather worries here.  Saints have huge homefield advantage in the Superdome with a rabid Saints crowd.  If you haven’t been to a Saints game, you just really cannot appreciate how crazy that scene is for a big game. Yes, the Saints have looked vulnerable at times this season – losing to the Cowboys doesn’t seem quite as bad as it did at the time and the opening game loss to the Buccaneers seems darn near inexplicable now (the season-ending loss to the Panthers was meaningless).  But other than a few such glitches the Saints have been about the most consistent team in the league.

Meanwhile, the Rams only lost to the Saints, Bears and Eagles (all playoff teams) and they won the wild shoot-out with the Chiefs in week 11.  They clearly can play with anyone.  This just might be the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history.  And of course you ask – what was the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history.  Well, actually it’s a tie between the Chargers 41-38 win over the Bengals in 1981 and the Bills 41-38 win over the Oilers in 1992 (the game  which made Red never really care about the outcome of another game after that).  Both were overtime games won by a field goal obviously.  Red is not predicting OT here, just massive amounts of yardage gained and goal lines crossed.  Brees and Goff both have so many weapons at their disposal.  On defense, the Rams gave up 30 or more points seven times and more than 40 points twice.  Meanwhile, the Saints gave up more than 30 only four times and those included  the inexplicable (Bucs) and the meaningless (Panthers) losses of the season.  Given all of this, Red is calling for a “Don’t miss a minute of this one because you might miss out on 3 scores” doozy of a game.  New Orleans 45 Los Angeles 38.   

Red’s 2018 NFL Predictions – AFC East

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New England Patriots  –  This is where every year Red writes that it is spineless and weak to continue to pick the Patriots but that he will continue to do so until proven wrong.  Red has yet to be proven wrong.  Pats are a bit down but still finish atop a weak division even with a relatively weak schedule.  Red is looking forward to week 15 matchup with Stealers.  New England sits at 11-5

Buffalo Bills  – Red kind of likes Josh Allen who seems to have a bit of Carson Wentz – QB out of nowhere feel to him and will not be surprised if he moves in to the lineup at some point.  Sorry all you AJ McCarron fans out there – both of you.  It’s just too bad there is so little else to like about this team.   There is a good secondary on defense, but lack of offensive weapons is very troublesome.  Buffalo (Orchard Park) is 8-8 material

Miami Dolphins –  Red swears there are rumor that there is still an NFL team in the greater Miami region.  Beyond that Red is clueless.  Miami at 6-10.

New York Jets –  Meet the Jets, Greet the Jets, Step right up and beat the Jets.  Red still remembers an older fraternity brother singing that one at breakfast one bright shining morning.  Funny what you remember.  Funny what is still true.    Led by tired old Josh McCown (Sam Houston State for the Texas reference), the Jets are likely to be featured in at least half a dozen Shit Bowls this year.  Jets are 3-13.

Red’s NFL Picks – The Championship

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Last week – Red was 0-2 in the Conference Championship games.  Bleech!

The Jaguars had a real chance to off the Patriots but fell into the trap of not pressuring Brady with the game on the line.  Here’s the deal, if you don’t pressure him, he’s going to beat you.  If you do pressure him, he’s only probably going to beat you.  Not a tough choice in Red’s humble opinion.  The game came down to that and the Jags coaching staff blinked.

The Vikings – Eagles game was simpler.  In the matchup of two Texas quarterbacks, Case Keenum played like the Case Keenum of old – a creaky, unsure, seat of the pants, turnover machine Case Keenum.  Meanwhile, Nick Foles played like the Nick Foles of old – the can do no wrong best 2/3rd of a season of almost any quarterback in NFL history Nick Foles.  That was the game. The Superb Owl host jinx didn’t help either.

Your NFL Championship Game Pick of the Week –  Patriots over Eagles. 

The Eagles Last Championship – The Eagles last won the NFL Championship in 1960 at muddy Franklin Field with a 17-13 win over the Packers.  The game was Vince Lombardi’s only playoff loss (9-1).  Led by the Dutchman, Norm Van Brocklin, the Eagles only secured a victory when Chuck Bednarik stopped Packer’s fullback Jim Taylor at the 10 yard line after a reception from Bart Starr.  If the Packers had scored Taylor would likely have been the MVP of the game.  It would be 18 years before the Eagles returned to the playoffs losing to the Falcons in 1978.  Since then, the Eagles have been rather regular NFL playoff participants with only one major dry spell between the 1981 and 1988 seasons.  But real success has been elusive.  They have lost two Championship games – to the Raiders after the 1979 season (perhaps the best Eagles team since 1960) and to the Patriots after the 2004 season.  That was a close 24-21 loss for the Eagles.  McNabb’s 3 interceptions and the collapse of the Eagles rushing attack sealed the deal for the Pats.

The Patriots Last Championship – The Patriots last won the NFL Championship last season in the second biggest comeback in NFL playoff history (Oilers fans still remember the biggest).  And as for the rest of the story – does anyone really need to read about it here?

The Eagles Story – If Carson Wentz were still under center, Red would have no problem picking the Eagles.   Well, maybe a little problem.  There is certainly an argument that the Eagles feasted on a weak regular season schedule.  By Red’s hallmark (Quality Wins – meaning wins over Playoff teams and teams with winning records), the Eagles have four with wins over the Chargers (9-7 missed playoffs), Panthers (11-5 playoffs) and Rams (11-5 playoffs) and Cowboys (9-7 missed playoffs).  That is not bad by any means – even though Red discounts the win over the Cowboys because the only reason that team finished with a winning record was because of their 6-0 win in Week 17 over the Eagles who fielded a team largely made up of high school all-stars.  Throw in two impressive playoff wins over the redoubtable Falcons and the insurgent Vikings and its a pretty damn good season for the Eagles.  The only chance the Eagles have is to establish their running game early and put together some solid 5-7 minute scoring drives to keep Brady off the field and tire out the Pats defense.  If Foles has to throw 30 or fewer times and the defense sacks Brady 4 times and keeps the pressure up through the 4th quarter, there is a possibility that the Eagles could pull out a close one.  But Red doesn’t like those chances.  Alternatively, maybe the worst thing the Eagles could do would be to come out and rack up a sizable lead.  That seems to not work at all against the Pats.  Maybe they need to be behind by 10 going into the 4th quarter and then . . . oh, forget it!  In the unlikely event the Eagles win it will be on the last play of the game.

The Patriots 2017 Story –  The Patriots had six Quality Wins (Saints, Chargers, Falcons, Bills (2) and Stealers).  That is an impressive total for any team and just your average season for the Pats.  Home losses to the Chiefs and Panthers were unexpected but not terribly surprising.  The only real blip on the schedule was the late season loss to the Dolphins.   The hallmark of this season was the consistency of the Patriots offense.  They scored 30+ points seven times and only scored less than 20 once in a 19-14 win on the road against the sad-sack Buccaneers.  Odds are the Eagles are going to have to score at least 30 to have a chance. Given the Pats defense that is not likely.  After a shaky start, the Pats surrendered more than 20 points only twice after the first 4 games – in the loss to the Dolphins and in beating the Stealers on the road.  They kept the opposition in single digits three times.  On the other side of the ball with Tom Brady at the helm, confidence is always high on the Patriots sideline.  Having your legacy already fixed gives you some leeway in a game like this.  If Brady has a terrible game – it will not alter the perception of him at all.  It will make a lot of folks ridiculously happy but it will not change the historical perspective on Brady.  The only question here is what relatively unknown player will step up and have the game of his career in the championship game.  It happens every time the Pats win.  Picking that player is beyond Red’s prognostic abilities.

Suffice it to say, that after Red has scarfed down a half dozen of his Superb Ribs and a heap of potato salad and coleslaw, he will settle in for the inevitable second half where the Pats either put it away or mount another annoying yet incredible come from behind win.

New England 35 Philadelphia 27.   See you next season.

Red’s NFL Picks – AFC East

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Ah, the NFC East – also known as the “uncontested lay-up” division for all pundits.

Patriots. As long time readers know (and Red hopes they are both awake and not hungover this morning), this is where Red always writes that it is “cowardly and spineless to pick the Patriots year after year” and then confirms his cowardice and utter lack of vertebral support by picking the Patriots anyway. In fairness to Red, look at the rest of this division – details to follow below.   Red has finally come to terms with the fact that Brady and Bellicheat long ago made a pact with the Dark Lord and while their souls may be damned for all eternity at least they will both end up in the Hall of Fame. Realistically, Red thinks this may be the season where Tom Brady finally looks tired and old and Bellicheat gets his playbook stolen by Russian hackers.  That coupled with a brutal stretch after the Week 9 bye; from November 12 to December 17 the Pats play 5 of 6 games on the road against real competition (Broncos, Raiders, Dolphins and Stealers).  Oh, for crying out loud. Quit kidding yourself Red, you know you have no balls when it comes to this division.  Save your foolishness for the NFC West. Who on the schedule can beat the Pats even on a bad day?  Maybe the Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Falcons and Stealers? Certainly not the Texans as long as Tom Brady is in the house.   New England breezes to another divisional crown with a 12-4 record.  Red really hates himself today.

Bills.  The Bills have not made the playoffs in 17 years – the longest active post-season drought in the NFL (yes – worse than Cleveland even).  Red sees no reason that streak ends anytime soon.  Yes, the inevitably flawed “Rex Ryan as a head coach” experiment ended up with broken glass on the floor and poisonous gasses filling the laboratory/locker room.  Trump supporter Ryan failed in his promise to make Bills’ fans “tired of winning.”  New coach Sean McDermott will at least not be flaunting absurd predictions  of success.  Rather, the Bills seem to be building an offense suited to the limited repertoire of QB Tyrod Taylor.  Coordinator Rick Dennison is implementing a version of the vaunted “West Coast Offense” with short routes mixed with long bombs and quick decisions.   If Sammy Watkins can stay on the field, he leads a corps of competent wideouts.  And then there is the redoubtable LeSean McCoy.  Red isn’t about to guess what to make of his 2017 season.  On the defensive side, out is the Ryan family’s complicated 3-4 scheme and back in with a traditional 4-3.  The Bills seem headed in the right direction after years of aimless wandering, but that probably only translates to a less than awful season.  Orchard Park is reasonably happy with an 8-8 campaign.

Dolphins.  The Dolphins at least went 10-6 and made the playoffs last year. But against the Pats, they were behind 31-3 in week 3 before rallying to lose by only 7 and then were blown out 35-14 in week 17.  In the playoffs the Stealers pushed them aside like a Latvian President and that was it for the aquatic mammals.  The Dolphins cupboard is not bare with up and coming talent like Jay Ajayi and others.  But when your season depends on Jay Cutler . . .  [insert bad thing happening here].  Miami regresses to 7-9.

Jets. The Jets have been a reality TV show for the last several seasons – and a really bad reality TV show at that.  Of course, when the White House is pretty much a reality TV show, maybe Red is on the wrong side of this issue.  Probably not, but Red is an open-minded sort of guy.  But the Jets! What is going on with this franchise? When Red went to the Jets  official website – they did not have a depth chart posted!  Maybe when your choices for starting quarterback include the appropriately named Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty it’s just as well to keep everyone in the dark.  What is going on is a massive roster dump to get the first draft pick next season – thought to be USC quarterback Sam Darnold. Every season Red’s fondest wish is for a 6-10 team to make the playoffs.  His runner-up wish is for a team to go winless.  The Jets love Red this season –  0-16 Baby!

Red’s 2017 NFL Picks – AFC East

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As long time readers know (and Red hopes they are both awake and not too terribly hung-over this morning), this part of the annual predictions is where Red always writes that it is “cowardly and spineless to pick the Patriots year after year” and then confirms his cowardice and utter lack of vertebral support by picking the Patriots anyway.

In fairness to Red, look at this division.

Patriots. Red has finally come to terms with the fact that Brady and Bellicheat long ago made a pact with the Dark Lord and while their souls may be damned for all eternity to the lake of fire at least they will both end up in the Hall of Fame – which may not be an altogether bad trade-off. Realistically, Red thinks this may be the season where Tom Brady finally looks tired and old and Bellicheat gets his playbook stolen by Russian hackers.  Quit kidding yourself Red, you know you have no balls when it comes to this division.  Save your foolishness for the NFC West. Who on the schedule can beat the Pats even on a bad hair day for Tom?  Maybe the Chiefs, Raiders, Falcons and Stealers?  “Maybe” being the operative word here.  New England breezes to a 13-3 record.  Red hates himself today.

Bills.  This team hasn’t made the playoffs in 17 years – the longest active post-season drought in the NFL (yes – worse than Cleveland even). Do they deserve a second look in 2017?  Anquan Boldin quit on them. Emphatically not! The misery continues in Orchard Park 6-10.

Dolphins. At least this team went 10-6 and with some help made the playoffs last year. But against the Pats, they were behind 31-3 in week 3 before rallying to lose by only 7 and then were blown out 35-14 in week 17.  In the playoffs the Stealers pushed them aside like a Latvian President and that was it for the Fish.  There is a void in the backfield. And to the rescue comes Jay Cutler? At least he has rising star Jay Ajayi to hand the ball to.   Red holds out some hope for the Dolphins in 2017.  He also still plays the lottery.  Miami 8-8.

Jets.  When you’re a Jet, you’re a Jet all the way, from your first losing bet, to your knees for to pray. When you’re a Jet, you lose the division.  The Jets have been a reality TV show for the last several seasons – and a really bad reality TV show at that.  What is going on with that franchise.  Go to their official website – they don’t even have a depth chart posted!  Maybe when your choices for starting quarterback are the appropriately named Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty it’s just as well to keep everyone in the dark. Jets 2-14.

Red’s NFL Picks – Superb Owl

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NFL Picks 2016 – Superb Owl

It’s very hard to imagine how big a deal the Superb Owl is until it comes to your town. Red happened to be in downtown Houston last Thursday night and walked over to Discovery Green.  DG is a wonderful little urban park on the east side of downtown across from the massive George R. Brown Convention Center.  For the Superb Owl, DG, the GRB and the surrounding area have been turned in ground zero for all things NFL and SB in particular.  At 9:30 on a Thursday night more than a week before the game, there were probably 75 workers hard at it.  Fox has built what appears to be a 10,000 sq. ft. temporary studio on the main lawn. There is a massive temporary café/bar, a full concert stage, a huge NASA display, light show in the pond and other attractions.  That doesn’t include the other four square blocks all tented up for music, food, conviviality and possibly lots of drinking.  Or the entire “NFL Experience” set up inside GRB.  There are also massive projections on nearby buildings and of course the mandatory barriers, metal detectors and road closings that accompany any such event nowadays.  Red estimates that somewhere between $15-25 million has been spent in this one area of downtown alone and maybe much more than that.  Who knows what is going on at NRG park – maybe just a game.

Red was a dismal 0-2 in the Conference Championship games. He was hoping against hope that the Stealers would show up and not terribly surprised when they did not. So, we have the Patriots in the SB again. Can we hear a vigorous “Ho Hum” from everybody?  Red thought so.

Red was taken aback, however, by the Packers pathetic performance. We knew the Falcons offense was fearsome, but what has made them a true contender for the Lombardi Trophy is the turnaround from the front 7 on defense.  That should have ultimately been expected with Dan Quinn in charge, but the arrival of a top caliber defense is ahead of schedule.

With apologies to Ray Magliozzi, Red has to say “Well, it’s happened again, you’ve wasted another perfectly good NFL season, reading Red’s bad NFL weekly picks.” Why stop now?

Your Last Pick of the Week – Falcons over Patriots

They used to say that defense and rushing wins championships.   They used to say that cheaters never win, too. Bill Bellicheat and Tom Brady put an end to such nonsense. Don’t misunderstand, the Pats have had respectable defenses and managed to turn stiffs like LaGarrette Blount (aka the Fat Pig), Antowain Smith and Stevan Ridley into reasonable facsimiles of real NFL running backs for brief periods of time.  Inter-column quiz:  Who is the Patriots all-time leading rusher?  Had to think didn’t you?  It’s Sam “Bam” Cunningham for Christ sakes – who was with the team for 9 seasons and gained all of 5453 yards.  He also had more career fumbles than touchdowns.  There is not a single running back in Patriots history headed for the Hall of Fame or even the Hall of Very Good.  The Hall of Mediocrity might accept one or two, but that’s it.  This season is no different.  BB has figured out that you really don’t need a superstar back if your offensive scheme is good enough.  Just plug in a horse that you use to exploit defensive weakness and go on about your business.

The Pats defense is another story. It was the best defense in the only category that matters – scoring.  The Pats allowed fewer points than any other team in the league and that kept them in a few games when the offense was not clicking – a very few.

But let’s look at who the Pats beat this season. They beat 3 playoff teams (if you include the Texans as a playoff team – a questionable proposition).  They beat the Stealers, Dolphins (twice) and the Texans.  Their two losses were to the Bills (sans Brady) and the Seahawks.  They also had very few close games – posting only four (4) one-score victories. Two of those were in the first two weeks of the season when they beat the Cards and Dolphins in close contests. The later beat the Jets and Ravens by one touchdown each.  Other than that, they either lost or pretty much blew out their opponents.  Defense was the key to cruising to victory most weeks.  Only the Cards, Dolphins, Bills, Seahawks and Ravens could score more than 20 points and only the Seahawks scored more than 30.

Meanwhile in Georgia, the Falcons offense was keyed by a successful running tandem all season. Freeman and Coleman were the best backfield all season.  Good for two guys who were mid round picks in 2014 and 2015.  That is not to say that the Falcons’ incredible passing attack should be overlooked.  It is simply incredible how Julio Jones and his posse can tear up opposing secondaries.  But the respect for the running game that opposing defenses must show, makes the passing attack all that much more fearsome.  How fearsome?  The Falcons failed to score at least 23 points only once all season in an inexplicable loss to the Eagles after a 10-day layoff.  They scored more than 30 points 11 times and more than 40 points 5 times.  They lost 3 games by a total of 13 points with only the bizarre loss to the Eagles coming by more than one score.  The analyst could say, the Falcons will find a way to lose a close game.  The analyst should shut up.

The Falcons defense is not on par with the Pats. But it has steadily improved all season and clearly was in full stride against the Packers.  That performance must have built a new level of confidence.  They will need it against the Pats.

The Pats are favored by 3 and the over/under is around 58. Red really likes the Falcons and 3 points.  If they lose, it will be close.  If you can get 3.5 points, take it and run.  Red wonders a bit about the O/U.  SB’s can be notoriously slow starting on the offensive front.  Ah, screw it.  Go with the over and hope for an exciting game that doesn’t last 4 hours.  See you next season. Atlanta 33 New England 28.

Red’s NFL Picks – Conference Championships

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“The stash of games is getting low.”

Said many years ago by an old stoner friend of Red’s (who loved football almost as much as he liked the weed). Indeed, it is. Indeed, it is.

Red Rates Himself – For Round 2 of the Playoffs Red was 2-2. For the season Red is now 58-46. Omaha, Omaha.

Your Rocky Mountain High Pick of the Week: Broncos over Patriots. Red is breaking tradition and all the rules by picking the Broncos – even though the Patriots were his preseason AFC Champ. If this game were in Foxboro, Red would call it the other way. If you didn’t notice, every home team won last week and every game was a “one score” game in that one score by the losing team would have won or tied the game. Red expects the same this weekend. There will be no blowouts of the last teams standing but the home field advantage in this type of game is enormous. The Patriots strategy last week was to pretend like the solid front 7 of the Chiefs defense simply did not exist and throw, throw some more and keep throwing the entire game. There was a mere pretense of a running game – not surprising since the Pats were down to retired retread Steven Jackson as their main option in the backfield. No knock on Jackson who had a solid career but expecting him to come out of retirement a couple of weeks before the playoffs and rush for 100 yards is a little much even for the Pats. That strategy will not work against the best defense in the league. Miller, Ware, Jackson and Wolfe will be turned loose on Brady. Pressure will be the key. So what will Belicheat pull out of the hat this week in the face of the team who gets after the QB better than anyone else? If Red knew that he wouldn’t be working for a living.   Red expects the Broncos’ sputtering offense will need to score 24 to win and they can do that with smart game management and a decent game from the disappointing C.J. Anderson. The Broncos need at least 130 yards on the ground and the clock chewing that entails, if they are going to win. And PMS needs to not suck – a tall order right now. Red likes the Broncos plus 3, but the O/U at 44.5 scares him. Denver 24 New England 23.

Your Wildwood Weed Pick of the Week: Panthers over Cardinals. Cardinals surprised Red last week. He thought that the Packers wild finish would finish off a team that had to be wondering “What the Hell just happened?” But Larry Fitzgerald put an end to Red’s dream of correctly picking both Superb Owl teams – so now he hates them. On the other side, the Panthers have simply been the best team in the league all season. Notwithstanding the Seahawks furious comeback in the second half, what the Panthers did to the Hawks in the first half ought to be illegal. Red expects a similarly fast start to this one – again followed by a spirited rally that falls short. And although, Red would desperately like to see the first ever all Mountain Time Zone Superb Owl (with the only two teams that could possibly make that happen), he can’t go against a Carolina team that has bested all comers but one – and looked pretty snappy doing so. Red likes the Panthers giving up 3 and the over at 44.5.   Carolina 35 Arizona 29.