Category Archives: NFL Picks

Red’s 2021 NFL Predictions – AFC South

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Red used to refer to the AFC South as “The Division of Excellence” or something like that because like Rodney Dangerfield it “got no respect” from most of the pundits despite frequently having among the best collective records of any division in the NFL.   Of course, the AFC South has all of one – count it one – NFL Championships coming with the Colts win over the Bears in 2006.  The Colts accounted for the division’s only other AFC Championship but lost to the Saints in the 2009 Superb Owl.

Last season, the division was dominated by two excellent squads with Tennessee and Indianapolis both posting 11-5 records while the Texans (4-12)  and Jaguars (1-15) soiled the bed linens.  Neither the Colts nor the Titans could make it out of the Wild Card round as the Titans lost a tough game against the Ravens while the Colts almost knocked off the Bills. 

Moving on to this season, Red doesn’t see much reason for change at the top or the bottom of this division.

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Tennessee  Titans (11-6).  Red picks the Titans to repeat as division champs.  Admittedly, it is hard to look at the Titans 2021 schedule and not wonder how exactly 10 wins will be forthcoming.   Other than the 4 games against the Texans and Jaguars there appears to be only one soft spot on the schedule in week 4 against the Jets.  But with loyal fans like Jana (originally from Germany but now woefully ensconced somewhere in Florida) who had her car “wrapped in the Tennessee Titans logo” and whose “biggest wish is for the team to autograph my car” – how can this team miss?  With the amount of offensive firepower Coach Mike Vrabel and new OC Todd Downing have at their disposal, this team should easily be among the AFC leaders in points scored if not for the fact that they play in the same conference with the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens and Browns.  Geez guys you got A J Brown, Derrick Henry and Julio Jones.  Even All-Mediocre QB Ryan Tannehill should be able to do something with that bunch. Red also likes the addition of wily veteran Jackrabbit Jenkins to the secondary  and Bud Dupree to linebacking corps.  JRJ earns the wily designation because he has scored 10 career touchdowns ranking first among active defensive players (JJ Watt may beg to differ).  If Dupree is fully recovered from his torn ACL he gives the Titans another legit edge rusher.  

99 DT DeForest Buckner

Indianapolis Colts (9-8).   The most exciting news out of the Colts training camp does not involve who will replace P. Rivers under center, but rather the Throwback Game on November 28  against the NFL Champion Buccaneers.  The big feature of the throwbacks will be the double horseshoes on the back of the helmet.  Red for one can hardly wait to see the ghosts of  Weeb Eubank, Jonny Unitas , Don Ameche and Tom Matte rallying the Colts to an OT win over the hated Buccaneers.  And for Dad, the Colts Cheerleaders (claiming to be the NFL’s first cheer squad) will also be sporting throwbacks.  Sorry no pictures available.  As for the team, who knows?  Sam Ehlinger from Texas could be the starting QB by Week 13 when the Colts come to Houston.  Ehlinger is undefeated at NRG having trounced Rice in 2019 and Missouri in the 2017 Texas Bowl.  The Colts could do worse.  As with the Titans, the Colts don’t have a favorable schedule and one that is possibly harder than the Titans with the matchup against the aforementioned defending champion Bucs.  Other than the weaklings of the AFC South and the Jets, every game looks like a toss-up. 

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Jacksonville Jaguars (6-11).  No team in the league has tried harder to get better with fewer results than the Jags.  Given the current pathetic state of London’s favorite team, it is hard to believe that the Jags were one touchdown away from playing in the Superb Owl in 2017.  Things do change fast in this era.  In the biggest news since Donald Trump professed his undying love for North Korean Dictator Kim Jung Un, new Jaguars Head Coach Urban Meyer recently declared, “I love Bobby Bowden” while mourning the death of his long-time Florida football rival at age 91.  Oh yeah, and in addition to adding the second most successful college coach of the last 20 years, the Jags have a new QB who is the latest in a long line of “can’t miss” top of the draft class rookies.  Red thinks the book is out on Trevor Lawrence until at least a couple of chapters are written.  Ask Jonny Manziel, Sam Bradshaw, Jamarcus Russell, David Carr, Vince Young, Andre Ware and Joey Harrington about this.  Coming into a sad-sack franchise often plays a role in the transformation from an NFL career back to being a working stiff (albeit a rather wealthy stiff) in civil society – and the sacks don’t get much sadder than they do in Jacksonville. 

Houston Texans (3-13-1).  Hey Bill, how many games do you think the Texans will win this year without your brilliant leadership skills? See photo above for answer.  Well the Texans would be right in claiming that  “Bad luck and trouble -my only friends.”  Perhaps the Texans were born under a bad sign.  Red won’t recount his personal travails with the franchise (like the 1422 days after the franchise opening win against the Cowboys and attending another game in which they eked out a win).  The fallout from the Bill O the Clown era will be with the team for a good while.  If there has been a more incompetent team leader, Red sure can’t summon up the name.  BO the C routinely gave the store away in trades, ran off good players, pissed off the media and the fans, repeatedly showed his incompetence in game management and yet, somehow managed to win four AFC South division titles and two playoff games.  Notably, BO the C only had one season with more than 10 wins in 2017 but then his team got gobsmacked by the Colts in the Wild Card round.   Admittedly, some blame has to be placed on the shoulders of Team President (and leading candidate for starring in a Captain Kangaroo revival) Cal McNair whose only qualification for the job is being winner of the lucky sperm club.  Oh enough whining Red.  Last year it took Red about 2 seconds to take the Texans up on their generous offer to defer purchasing season tickets.  This year it took Red at least 5 minutes to pull the plug on his 20 year run as season-ticket holder.  All that said, Red thinks the Texans will surprise a few teams.  Make  that embarrass.   Oh, and Red hears there is some news about DeShaun Watson.  Do tell.   

Top Ten NFL Players? Always a Lively Debate – Red Weighs In

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Red thinks that a little diversion from the Reality TV Show Joke of a President, his inept response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the GOPs relentless voter suppression campaign and forced togetherness couple with boredom is in order.  So  looking ahead to an NFL season that may or may not happen as planned, Red offers the following:

Numerous sports writers like to put out their top player lists.  So even though Red is not a member of the scribe tribe, he will put out his top ten list for the coming season and maybe compare to a couple of others.

Red’s Top Ten NFL players for the 2020 Season;

  1. Patrick Mahomes – can there even really be a debate about this one?  Mahomes led his team to come from behind victories in three consecutive playoff games to cap the 2019 season with the Chiefs first Superb Owl win in 50 years.  More of the same in 2020.
  2. Lamar Jackson – the reigning MVP (a unanimous choice) had a breakout season leading the league in a number of categories including passing touchdowns, touchdown percentage and rushing yards for a quarterback.  He has all his offensive weapons back and another year to adjust to Harbaugh’s scheme.  And he has the sting of consecutive first round play-off exits as motivation.
  3. Derrick Henry – Led the league in carries, rushing yards, touchdowns and yards per game.  He has size, speed, toughness, vision and will be playing for a big contract.  If he becomes a pass catching threat out of the backfield, Katy bar the door.
  4. Christian McCaffery –  Mr. All-around. The league leader in total offense with 2392 yards.  What is not to like.  A new quarterback is going to rely on this guy even more.
  5. Khalil Mack – the best defensive player in the league needs to be in the top ten.  His stats are not that impressive because he is always a target for the offense.
  6. Michael Thomas – A tough call, but Red has him as the best wide receiver in the game.  149 receptions, 1725 yards!!  The only question is can he get to 2000 receiving yards in a season before Drew Brees expires in the huddle.
  7. DeAndre Hopkins –  There is a decent argument for him as the best receiver based on a slightly longer resume than MT.  But he was nowhere close to MT last season.  Don’t be surprised if he lead the league in multiple categories in Kingsbury’s offense.
  8. Russell Wilson – Never a favorite of Red’s but he has to give him his due.  He has missed the playoffs once in his career and won at least one playoff game in every other season except for 2017 when the Cowboys and refs robbed him.  He is still in his prime and very dangerous.
  9. Aaron Donald –  The offense must account for this guy on every play – usually with a double team.  Toss-up between him and Mack for best defender in the league.  Lots of folks think he is the best player in the league bar none.
  10. Travis Kelce – A defensive coordinator’s nightmare.  He beats you short, long, in, out and when he doesn’t even appear to be trying that hard.  The best tight end in the game as modern tight ends go.  He doesn’t get near enough credit for making the Chiefs offense the juggernaut that it is.

Other Guys Picks:

Pete Blackburn – CBS Sports

  1. Patrick Mahomes
  2. Aaron Donald
  3. Russell Wilson
  4. Michael Thomas
  5. Christian McCaffrey
  6. Stephon Gilmore
  7. Lamar Jackson
  8. Chandler Jones
  9. Khalil Mack
  10. Aaron Rodgers

Pete Prisco – CBS

  1. Patrick Mahomes
  2. aaron Donald
  3. Russel Wilson
  4. Michael Thomas
  5. Christian McCaffery
  6. Stephon Gilmore
  7. Lamar Jackson
  8. Chandler Jones
  9. Khalil Mack
  10. Aaron Rodgers

NFL Players Rank – 2019

  1. Aaron Donald
  2. Drew Brees
  3. Khalil Mack
  4. Patrick Mahomes
  5. Todd Gurley
  6. Tom Brady
  7. Antonio Brown
  8. Aaron Rodgers
  9. Julio Jones
  10. Von Miller

 

 

Recap of Red’s 2018 NFL Predictions

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Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. This truism works for the NFL prediction game as well as major political and military blunders. As such, every season, Red does a light critical analysis of his previous season predictions. Red usually isn’t too far off the guys and gals who actually get paid for such heavy lifting. Last season was no different. Well, maybe a little different.
NFC – Red had the Eagles, Falcons, Vikings and Rams as division champs and the Bears and Saints as wild card entrants. That was 4 out of the 6 playoff teams. Red missed bigly on the Falcons who had a horrid start and have never regained their 2016 form. The Vikings just plain sucked. The biggest surprise here was the Cowboys 7 of their last 8 and then eking out a win over the Seahawks in the playoffs.
AFC – Red had the Patriots, Stealers, Texans and Chiefs as division winners and the Chargers and Browns as wild card winners. Again 4 out of 6. The Colts making the dance were the biggest surprise to Red – especially starting 1-5 and then going on a tear culminating with them ripping the Texans a new one in the first round of the playoffs (on the road no less). The Ravens earned their spot the hard way starting 4-5 and lucked out when Flacco Joe went down and Lamar Jackson rallied the troops. The Stealers had too many injuries, holdouts and other excuses, while the Browns blew at least 3 games they should have won which would have put them in the hunt.
Overall – Picking 8 of the 12 playoff teams is about Red’s average. He had 10 correct one year, but most years he bounces around between 7 and 9. So, if you had gone to Vegas on Red’s picks to make the playoffs, you might have done okay.
Playoffs – Red had the Chiefs as his NFL Champion (beating the Falcons – ugh!). And as for the rest of the playoffs, Red screwed the pooch with his only correct prediction being the Chiefs actually playing in the AFC Championship game. Well, they were just one completion (and/or an overtime rule change) short of beating the Pats and if that had happened the Superb Owl would have been something with the high-powered Chiefs and Rams offenses marching up and down the field. Instead, there was a pathetic 13-3 snooze-fest won by the undeserving Pats. Oh well.

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 5

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Don’t miss out on this week’s six-pack of NFL picks.

A big rally for Red last week going 5-1 and only missing out by picking the Jets over the seemingly faltering Seahawks. The ship is still listing but not taking on water quite as fast.  On the season Red is now 10-14.  Maybe Cousin Red needs a tough line up of games every week.

Sure Bet Pick of the Week – Patriots over Browns. Needs no explanation.  The line is hovering around 10 to 10.5 with an under/over of 46.5 to 47.  Red doesn’t like going that long, but this is the week.  Give up the points and take the under. New England 26 Cleveland 10.

Underdog Pick of the Week – Falcons over Broncos. Broncos are playing lights out, but so are the Falcons since Week 1 averaging 42 points over the last 3 games. Last week Matt Ryan entered the rarified air of 500 yards passing with over 300 of it to Julio Jones.  Mr. Ryan briefly flirted with breaking the longest standing individual game record around.  What’s that you ask?  Norm “the Dutchman” Van Brocklin’s single game record of 554 yards passing has stood since September 28, 1961 when he completed 27 of 41 passes and also threw for 5 touchdowns.  Maybe the years of promise are finally being realized in Georgia.  The Broncos defense hasn’t seen an act like this one yet.    Atlanta 41 Denver 35.

Rivalry Game Pick of the Week – Raiders over Chargers. Not much to choose from in the rivalry column this week.  These two old AFL foes have played each other at least twice every year since 1960, but have only met once in the playoffs with the Chargers winning a shoot out after the 1980 season.  Red has been on the Raiders bandwagon for a while now and it seems to be paying off.  The Chargers have had the better of this series for almost 15 years, but the times they are a changing in California. Oakland 33 San Diego 17 .

Texas Franchise Pick of the Week – Bengals over Cowboys.  Der Bengals need this one.  They need a win on the road against a hot team and to avoid falling into a 2-3 hole in what is looking to be tough division (excluding the lowly Browns of course).  Meanwhile, Los Cowboys have exceeded all expectations so far.  But don’t get too excited Cowboy Nation.  The wins have come against the weak sisters OTNAs, Bears and 49ers – who will be lucky to finish the season with 18 wins between them.  And but for a play or two, the Boys could easily be 1-3. And their rookies are playing out of their shoes –  Ezekiel Elliot leads the league in rushing and Dak Prescott has yet to throw a pick.  But it’s not December, so the carriage hasn’t turned back into a pumpkin, yet – and that makes this a nervous pick for old Uncle Red.  The difference here is the  Bengals getting back Tyler Eifert this week.  The combination of AJ Green, Eifert and LaFell is pretty daunting for any secondary especially when coupled with the versatile duo of Hill and Gio in the backfield.  Plus the Bengals defense gets back an element of thuggishness with the return of Vontaze Burfict.  If he doesn’t cost them the game with stupid penalties, he might be the difference maker this week.      Cincinnati 27 Dallas 21.

Prime Time Pick of the Week – Packers over Giants.  Red’s pick of the Giants is starting to look suspect.  The loss in Week 3 to the OTNAs before two tough road games against the NFC North was likely the start of a 3 game losing streak.  Packers are lucky to be 2-1 having failed to dominate anyone yet mostly because of erratic second half play.  A Rodg has thrown 7 TDs with no interceptions in the first half of games and 0 TDs with 1 INT after halftime so far.  This one will be tight and could go either way. Green Bay 24 New Jersey 23.

Shit Bowl Pick of the Week – Colts over Bears. This awful anal assault features two teams coming in at a deserved 1-3.  The Bears have the advantage of a 1 game winning streak.  The Colts have the advantage of facing Brian Hoyer – who had his one good game for the season last week.  Sorry Brian, that’s all you get.  Sorry fans, they still televise every game including the Shit Bowl. Red might watch this one out of morbid curiosity at how bad the Colts really might be this season.  But he will be careful to lock up the liquor cabinet lest he drink himself into a stupor by quarter four. Indianapolis 29 Chicago 21.