Tag Archives: Philadelphia Eagles

No Football until August, yet somehow we will survive.

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AKA – Red’s 2024 Season Finale – Super Bowl Pick.

It’s been a long season to say the least. Red did okay on preseason picks for the playoffs, was super in the Wildcard Round, 50% in both the Conference Semi-Finals and Finals and now has to pick the NFL Champion for the 2024 Season.

Red picked both the Chiefs and Eagles to win their divisions. Red has been riding the Eagles bandwagon for a while and shorting the Chiefs (and looking foolish).

The Chiefs sure look like the Team of Destiny in going for the third title in a row – a feat only accomplished by the Packers in the 30s and 60s. It would cap off a six year run of almost unmatched excellence in league history – with the prospect of an even longer run. Mahomes has the magic touch, a good offensive line, plenty of downfield targets and a running game that works because the passing offense is so fearsome to most defenses. Is there a way to stop the Chiefs’ offensive juggernaut? Maybe. Looked at objectively and ignoring the W/L record, the Chiefs offense has been rather mediocre all season – mostly doing just enough to win. KC has scored 30+ points exactly twice this season. They put up 30 in a squeaker against the lowly Panthers in November, and 32 against the Bills in the Conference final. They failed to score at least 20 points four times during the regular season. So on average the Chiefs offense is good for 22.6 ppg. That is just good enough to edge out the Cowboys for 16th place. The running game is even worse at only 105.3 yards per game – or somewhere close to the top of the bottom third of the league. Passing stats are better, but not spectacular. So how do they do it? Red is hesitant to say “smoke and mirrors” or blame the “refs” and the football gods. However, the gods are looking better and better as an explanation. The Chiefs have had multiple semi-miraculous finishes to close out games this season. Whether they win the Big One today may just depend on that. Red thinks the Chiefs may have gone to the well once too often.

The Eagles are averaging 27.2 ppg but the real stat in their favor is the massive advantage in rushing yards. They have gained 3048 yards on the ground which is about 1250 yards more than the Chiefs. The Eagles also sport a massive offensive line that looks to be capable of mashing any defense into the ground and is almost uniformly thought to be the best in the game in producing rushing yards. It’s no wonder that Saquon Barkley wanted to play for the Eagles. His greatness is only augmented by the beasts up front. His 2005 yards tops the league and Red isn’t even going to bother to scroll down to find the top Chiefs running back. This doesn’t even take into account the top two downfield targets in Brown and Smith who only had 135 catches between them because of the dominant running game – but who would likely have 100+ receptions on any other team. And both are pretty good downfield blockers to boot. That leaves Mr. Hurts who is dual threat – not quite on the level of LJ or Hayden, but has to be accounted for on every play. (Mahomes is no slouch but it seems clear that Andy doesn’t want him to run anymore than absolutely required). If the Eagles can put up 200+ rushing yards . . .

So the bottom line is here. Red is taking the Eagles to win in a shootout. Philadelphia 32 Kansas City 27. Down to the wire. In the immortal words of Al Davis, it’s time for the Eagles to “Just win baby.”

See you next year.

Love, Red

Red’s NFL 2024 Conference Championships Pick

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Red has a special guest this week as he welcomes the BIG DOG to the blog for his Conference Championship pick. What say ye, Dog?

Thank you, Red,

First, some interesting items:

Saint Tom- 29 years as head coach.   12 conference title appearances.  5 wins.   Trounced a couple of times but also had some bad luck there and in the Super Bowl.   

Belicheat 29/13/9.   

Reid 25/12/5.   

Walsh 10/4/3.  Add seifert and you get 18/9/5 (the 97 appearance was a Mauricci).

Gibbs 12/5/4.   Bonus points for doing it w 4 different QBs.  (Not counting round two under Danny boy.)   Missed playoffs twice w 10-6 record and good teams back before it turned into a 12 or 14 team thing 

Andy is in some rarified air.   

RED ADDS:

Chuck Noll enters the room (22/7/4)

Noll: Hey Tom, how’s it going.

Landry:  Who let this SOB in?

And now back to the BIG DOG.

On the Texans and the refs-  Mahomes was on the wrong end of Brady calls in 2018 and 2020.   Now he’s on the fun end of Mahomes calls.   I don’t agree with either penalty.  But neither is a surprise.   I’m more focused on nine sacks (I counted nine, stats might say eight) given up, missed kicks and generally not turning yards into points.   Which tends to be made harder when you give up sacks and miss kicks.   At least they won the bill O’Brien invitational again- 6-2 in the wild card game, all at home, all in the early time slot on Saturday.   Followed by 0-6 in the divisional round with another loss at the site of Bill O’s Waterloo.    This one was competitive, like the first one at Baltimore.   Bookending four beat downs.   

Speaking of sacks- they’ve made a semi comeback in the playoffs.   As a kid of the 80s I’m a turnover and sacks junkie.  Nothing more fun than watching QBs get put on their ass.   Hope it continues this weekend.   

This weekend we get a couple of interesting stars.   We have the five year rule in play- since the merger a coach /QB combo who doesn’t win the Super Bowl in their first five years as coach /primary starter never does.  It works pre-merger too if you factor out Stram/Dawson or count an AFL title.    Harbaugh/Flacco and Dungy/Manning did it in five.    McDermott/Allen are in year seven.  So are Harbaugh/Jackson but they’ll now get to 8.    The sweet spot seems to be 3 or 4 years.    

The Chiefs have been the Bills’ roadblock.    They’ve won at home and on the road.   With the better team and the lesser team.   Neither team looked great last week.  Buffalo was content to turtle up and let Baltimore find a way to hand them the game.   Minus 2012 that has been a Harbaugh/Ravens specialty.   And it worked.   It won’t tomorrow.  

The Chiefs are close to a threepeat as we’ve seen since the 49ers in 1990 – home game, won the first matchup, opponent with backup QB.   The Giants needed a fake punt and a late fumble to win 15-13 and deprive us of a Steve Young Super Bowl start (Montana suffered the two year injury late).  Here, the Chiefs are at home and favored, where I expected the Bills to be -2 or so.    The teams that overcome their playoff roadblock going back to the 70s tend to be at home.  Buffalo isn’t.   Andy and Mahomes are 4-2 in this game.   Two losses (and one win) in overtime.   Buffalo needs to beat them in this game before I believe they actually can.  The BIG DOG will take Kansas City.

RED pops in again:

Red is taking the BIlls -getting the ball first in OT and winning the game.   Buffalo 31 KC 24.

Take it away DOG!

On the other side the Commanders matter for the first time in 30 plus years.   The first thing I think of with these teams is the body bag game.  And how Washinton went back to Philly two months later and killed them and ended the Buddy Ryan era.   

Lots of talk about rookie QBs going 0-5 in conference title games.   Which makes me wonder why guys who do this for a living don’t remember Dieter Brock as a 34 year old rookie in 1985.   

All six of them (counting Brock) lost and the only two not to get trounced were Flacco Joe (threw big pick six when he had a chance to lead game winning TD drive ) and Shaun King (execrable performance but only lost 11-6 behind elite Tampa defense, and he might’ve won 6-5 if dungy had turtled up).  Daniels could be the first to win.  Philly should win this game pounding the ball.  Paradoxically they do better if Hurts has less passing yardage in the playoffs.    The Commanders seem to have something going.  Not a team of destiny- I don’t buy that crap or that teams play better with “something to play for” like the LA wildfires.   They are rolling offensively, can get pressure on Hurts, and can win a shootout even if Barkley breaks one off.   This is kind of a sentimental pick because of how much I enjoyed the Gibbs teams.   Hurts is also injured- if his mobility is limited it’ll be a factor.   The stats say Philly should win by two scores.   The spectre of injury is there for Daniels – it sunk the Niners when Purdy was a rookie.  But I think Daniels has another big day and makes a lifetime of enemies in Philly.  

Red one last time. Red thinks Barkley and the Eagles defense carry the day. Philadephia 29 Washington 19.

Red’s 202(4) NFL Conference Semi-Final Picks

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For those of you paying attention and thinking about throwing some hard earned money at the misnamed “gaming” industry this weekend, you might note that Red was 6 for 6 straight up last week.

For those of you playing the line, Red was 5-0-1, with only the Commanders/Buccaneers matchup being a push. Red doesn’t typically pick base on the odds, but you might just want to think about that.

So on to the misnamed “Divisional Round” – a round in which two teams who were not division champions could face each other. Red will go to the mat in fighting to call this weekend the Conference Semi-Finals – only because that is exactly what these games are. On to the picks:

Texans over Chiefs. Call Red crazy – he doesn’t mind because he probably is for making this pick. Let’s look back at the Texans’ painful playoff history against the Chiefs.

In the 2015 playoffs the Chiefs walloped the 9-7 Texans at NRG 30 to ZIP. This game was pretty much over after Knile Davis took the opening kickoff 106 yards for a score. Ugh. Red had almost forgotten that long Saturday afternoon.

What Red clearly remembers is the beacon of hope that shone in the first 18 minutes of the Texans/Chiefs game on Jan. 12, 2020. The football world was shocked when the Texans went up 24-0 on the Chiefs. Normality was restored by halftime with the Chiefs leading 28-24 in route to a 51-31 rout. It would take several years for the Texans to shake off that ass whomping.

So why should this year be any different? The Chiefs are not the same juggernaut they have been for the past many years. The running game is suspect. Mahomes has to carry the team – which would be a dream come true for most. CJ Stroud seems to have shaken off his sophomore slump and if Joe Mixon can bruise and cruise for over 150 yards and a brace of TDS, the Texans have a chance. But more critically, Red thinks the Chiefs have run out of rabbits and maybe even the hat to pull them out of. A team only gets some many miraculous finishes in one season. And the Texans showed real signs of life last week against a very good Chargers team. It’s a close call. Houston 27 KC 24.

Lions over Commanders. The Lions are the best team in the NFC by a long shot. Red thinks that only the Rams might have a chance against them if they make it through a frigid Sunday afternoon in Philly. Goff is playing at his best (ask the Vikings), Gibbs is bruising defenses and the Lions defense is good enough to hold down the fort. The Commanders have had a good season (meaning any season the Cowboys don’t win the NFC East) and certainly should be thinking they have a chance. But Red isn’t saying that. Take the Lions forget about the spread. Detroit 45 Washington 17.

Eagles over Rams. People are raving about how the Rams played down the stretch. But tell Red this, other than beating the Bills at home in a wild 44-42 game that could have gone either way – who did the Rams beat before waxing the overrated Vikings in the Wildcard round? The Patriots, Saints, Jets, 49ers, Cardinals – no one of consequence. Red knows you can probably say the same thing about the Eagles. And while Red doesn’t normally place much meaning in a regular season matchup, the Eagles did dispatch the Rams with some ease back in November. Only a garbage time touchdown by the Rams kept that game from looking like more of a rout. The Rams had no answer for Mr. Barkley who had 255 yards on 26 carries. Red will let you do the math. If Hurts has just an average game, with the best back in the game right now controlling the ball, Red just doesn’t see the Rams as being able to keep up. It may be close for a while, but the Eagles close out strong. Philadelphia 31 Los Angeles 20.

Bills over Ravens. Red hates picking this one. These are two teams who both deserve a shot at the Conference title. The Bills have been pretty consistent all year with but a few bumps in the road (maybe the loss to the Texans doesn’t look so bad and losing to the Ravens and Rams is no mark of disgrace). The Ravens started the season 0-2, then corrected course for a while beating the Bills 35-10, then it was up and down but come mid-December they have been really unchallenged and playing their best football. This one all comes down to who has the better game Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. The difference might be a single sack, an interception or a turnover on downs. This one is down to the wire as it should be. And is too much to ask for a blizzard game? Buffalo 31 Baltimore 28.

Red’s 2018 NFL Predictions – NFC East

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Let’s start with the division of your NFL Champion Philadelphia Eagles.

Philadelphia Eagles –  Here is Red’s favorite to repeat as NFC East champion.  After all this team won the Superb Owl with a backup quarterback and a couple of trick plays over the greatest team of the 21st century led by perhaps the winningest quarterback the NFL will ever see.  That said, the track record for championship teams the next season is spotty at best (putting aside the Patriots of course).  Ask yourself, what have the Giants, Stealers, Saints, Broncos and Ravens done for you lately?  And that said, the Eagles still have the best defense in the East, a returning Superb Owl MVP as the backup quarterback, a decent corps of wide receivers (addition of Mike Wallace could be big) and question marks in the backfield (see you later Fat Pig aka LaGarrette Blount).   And that said, there is always the issue of the champions’ schedule.  That schedule is doubly brutal this year as the Eagles are playing the AFC South which looks to have two playoff teams and the NFC South with potentially tough games against the Saints, Panthers and Falcons in the season opener on September 6.  Looking up and down the Eagles’ schedule, the only games that one could count as sure wins are home games against the Giants and OTNA’s and maybe the Colts and Buccaneers.   With the difficult schedule and a few question marks Philadelphia goes 11-5.

New York (Jersey) Giants – One possible last hurrah for Manning the Younger this season.  A muted hurrah at best though.  The Giants seem to be headed in the right direction with a new GM in Dave “the Gentlemen” Gettleman and head coach Pat Shurmur (formerly OC for the Vikings – who would have been surprise of the 2017 season but for the aforementioned Eagles).  Shoring up the offensive line with Nate Solder (late of the Pats) and Rookie Will Hernandez may mean that EM is not running for his life on every other play.  But the big reason to have hope among the Giants’ faithful is the addition of RB Saquon Barkley.  Recent trials have shown that a fresh young running back – who can run, block and catch – lifts the entire offense.  As Cowboys’ fans about E. Elliot and Jaguars’ fans about L. Fournette.  If Barkley is the real deal, the Giants will not start 0-5 – maybe 2-3 with a brutal opening stretch of Jaguars, Cowboys, Texans, Saints and Panthers.  New Jersey is 9-7.  No soup for you.

Dallas (Arlington) Cowboys –  It was something of a miracle that the Cowboys managed to win 9 games last year with their pathetic excuse for a defense through a good part of the season (giving up more 27+ points six times) and the offense that disappeared for six games.  The only real changes are the subtractions of future HOFer Jason Whitten and future Huntsville resident Dez Bryant.  This season rests on the ability of the Boys to consistently score 25 points per game.  And that rests on the shoulders of the offensive line (still very good but no longer great) Dak P. (good) and E. Elliot (very very good).   The Red Rule is back in play however.  And for those who don’t remember that rule is – “Score 14 points and beat the Cowboys.” Here’s a stat for you – only the Cowboys, OTNAs and Lions have failed to play for an NFC Championship in the last 22 seasons.  That doesn’t change for anyone this year.  Arlington Cowboys are 8-8. 

Washington (Landover, Md.) OTNAs – For new readers that means “Offensive Term for Native Americans.”  The real offensive thing will be how badly the OTNAs stink this year.  This is a franchise that aspires to mediocrity and just missed that mark with a season-ending loss to the godawful Giants in 2017.  Alex Smith will be a boost as he is a guy who knows how to get the best out of the talent around him.  It is the talent around him that is questionable.  The offensive line is serviceable but skill positions are a lot of question marks.  Red likes Smith and thinks he deserves a shot at the big ring.  He just won’t get it with this season and not likely ever with this team.  Landover, Md. struggles to a 7-9 record again.

PS: Red will throw in his annual bitch about the Cowboys TV schedule.   The team that hasn’t sniffed a championship in going on 23 years now gets five primetime games (including the mandatory Thursday nighter) and six national TV late games (including the prime Thanksgiving spot) only one of which (Seahawks) is time zone related.   At some point, people just aren’t going to hate the Cowboys enough for this ridiculousness to make sense.

Red’s NFL Picks – The Championship

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Last week – Red was 0-2 in the Conference Championship games.  Bleech!

The Jaguars had a real chance to off the Patriots but fell into the trap of not pressuring Brady with the game on the line.  Here’s the deal, if you don’t pressure him, he’s going to beat you.  If you do pressure him, he’s only probably going to beat you.  Not a tough choice in Red’s humble opinion.  The game came down to that and the Jags coaching staff blinked.

The Vikings – Eagles game was simpler.  In the matchup of two Texas quarterbacks, Case Keenum played like the Case Keenum of old – a creaky, unsure, seat of the pants, turnover machine Case Keenum.  Meanwhile, Nick Foles played like the Nick Foles of old – the can do no wrong best 2/3rd of a season of almost any quarterback in NFL history Nick Foles.  That was the game. The Superb Owl host jinx didn’t help either.

Your NFL Championship Game Pick of the Week –  Patriots over Eagles. 

The Eagles Last Championship – The Eagles last won the NFL Championship in 1960 at muddy Franklin Field with a 17-13 win over the Packers.  The game was Vince Lombardi’s only playoff loss (9-1).  Led by the Dutchman, Norm Van Brocklin, the Eagles only secured a victory when Chuck Bednarik stopped Packer’s fullback Jim Taylor at the 10 yard line after a reception from Bart Starr.  If the Packers had scored Taylor would likely have been the MVP of the game.  It would be 18 years before the Eagles returned to the playoffs losing to the Falcons in 1978.  Since then, the Eagles have been rather regular NFL playoff participants with only one major dry spell between the 1981 and 1988 seasons.  But real success has been elusive.  They have lost two Championship games – to the Raiders after the 1979 season (perhaps the best Eagles team since 1960) and to the Patriots after the 2004 season.  That was a close 24-21 loss for the Eagles.  McNabb’s 3 interceptions and the collapse of the Eagles rushing attack sealed the deal for the Pats.

The Patriots Last Championship – The Patriots last won the NFL Championship last season in the second biggest comeback in NFL playoff history (Oilers fans still remember the biggest).  And as for the rest of the story – does anyone really need to read about it here?

The Eagles Story – If Carson Wentz were still under center, Red would have no problem picking the Eagles.   Well, maybe a little problem.  There is certainly an argument that the Eagles feasted on a weak regular season schedule.  By Red’s hallmark (Quality Wins – meaning wins over Playoff teams and teams with winning records), the Eagles have four with wins over the Chargers (9-7 missed playoffs), Panthers (11-5 playoffs) and Rams (11-5 playoffs) and Cowboys (9-7 missed playoffs).  That is not bad by any means – even though Red discounts the win over the Cowboys because the only reason that team finished with a winning record was because of their 6-0 win in Week 17 over the Eagles who fielded a team largely made up of high school all-stars.  Throw in two impressive playoff wins over the redoubtable Falcons and the insurgent Vikings and its a pretty damn good season for the Eagles.  The only chance the Eagles have is to establish their running game early and put together some solid 5-7 minute scoring drives to keep Brady off the field and tire out the Pats defense.  If Foles has to throw 30 or fewer times and the defense sacks Brady 4 times and keeps the pressure up through the 4th quarter, there is a possibility that the Eagles could pull out a close one.  But Red doesn’t like those chances.  Alternatively, maybe the worst thing the Eagles could do would be to come out and rack up a sizable lead.  That seems to not work at all against the Pats.  Maybe they need to be behind by 10 going into the 4th quarter and then . . . oh, forget it!  In the unlikely event the Eagles win it will be on the last play of the game.

The Patriots 2017 Story –  The Patriots had six Quality Wins (Saints, Chargers, Falcons, Bills (2) and Stealers).  That is an impressive total for any team and just your average season for the Pats.  Home losses to the Chiefs and Panthers were unexpected but not terribly surprising.  The only real blip on the schedule was the late season loss to the Dolphins.   The hallmark of this season was the consistency of the Patriots offense.  They scored 30+ points seven times and only scored less than 20 once in a 19-14 win on the road against the sad-sack Buccaneers.  Odds are the Eagles are going to have to score at least 30 to have a chance. Given the Pats defense that is not likely.  After a shaky start, the Pats surrendered more than 20 points only twice after the first 4 games – in the loss to the Dolphins and in beating the Stealers on the road.  They kept the opposition in single digits three times.  On the other side of the ball with Tom Brady at the helm, confidence is always high on the Patriots sideline.  Having your legacy already fixed gives you some leeway in a game like this.  If Brady has a terrible game – it will not alter the perception of him at all.  It will make a lot of folks ridiculously happy but it will not change the historical perspective on Brady.  The only question here is what relatively unknown player will step up and have the game of his career in the championship game.  It happens every time the Pats win.  Picking that player is beyond Red’s prognostic abilities.

Suffice it to say, that after Red has scarfed down a half dozen of his Superb Ribs and a heap of potato salad and coleslaw, he will settle in for the inevitable second half where the Pats either put it away or mount another annoying yet incredible come from behind win.

New England 35 Philadelphia 27.   See you next season.

Red’s NFL Picks – NFC East

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Some call this the highest profile division in the entire NFL. It’s hard to argue with geography and tradition. When you have teams from the big cities in the Amtrak corridor (Giants, Eagles and OTNAs), and the hated and loved (but seldom indifferent to) Cowboys, not to mention three teams that have won multiple NFL Championships – then yes a lot of people are watching what happens here.  And maybe more than any other division, the NFC East in recent years has been up for grabs like a Matt Schaub floater in the slot.  No team has repeated as division champion since the Eagles in 2004.  And since 2011, every team has won at least one division title with the Cowboys and OTNAs each grabbing a pair. Unlike the AFC East, this is a tough call

Eagles have done more than any other team to boost their offense at the skill position with Torrey Smith, Alshon Jeffery, Donnel Pumphrey, and LaGarrette Blount (aka the Fat Pig). The Fat Pig will function as the anti-Darren Sproles. Trading Jordan Matthews is a serious and unexpected blow, but the defense needed help. Most analysts think the Eagles are a year away.  Red thinks that the Carson Wentz workshop will be cranking out a bunch of touchdowns with his new tools and a solid O line.  Eagles score early and often.  The addition of Derek Barnett may give the Eagles the best pass rush in the NFL.  Red predicts Bosa, Barnett, Graham and Cox may combine to break the NFL team sack record in 2017.  And just so you don’t have to look it up that would be the Bears 72 sacks in 1984.  A relatively easy early schedule (at least compared to the division rivals) has the Eagles at 6-2 at halftime and with some breathing room.  It gets tougher and the season-ending matchup at home against the Cowboys will be loser goes home.  Eagles don’t lose.  Philadelphia wins division with a hard fought 10-6 record.

Cowboys.  Smart money is on the Cowboys with 2016 ROY Dak Prescott and suspended girl-beater Ezekiel Elliott returning from unbelievable stellar rookie seasons. If all that JerryWorld had to worry about was a sophomore slump from those two, then the Cowboys would be an easy pick.  But hold on Hoss.  Forty percent of the best O-line in football is gone with the unexpected retirement of excellent RT Doug Free and coveted LG Ronald Leary heading to the Broncos. They are not easy to replace and a unit that played together for several seasons is not readily replicated.  Add to that, the near complete fruit basket turnover in the Cowboys secondary with CBs Claiborne and Carr and Safeties Chuch and Wilcox being shown the door.  That leaves Byron Jones as the only remaining starter.  Unless the pass rush is much better than anticipated, expect to see the secondary getting burned early and often by the excellent wide receivers in this division.  And don’t forget the tougher champions schedule.  The only potential nothing-burgers on the schedule are the Rams and 49ers.  Every other team can beat the Cowboys.  Red sees Arlington making it to  9-7 at best.

Giants will have the best defense in the NFL this season. The line has been solid and the secondary took a big step forward with addition of Janoris Jenkins.  The big question for the Giants is the offense.  Young Manning is now 36 and coming off his worst season in years.  Maybe adding Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram helps, but unless the Giants can run the ball, look out for trouble.  As with the Boys, the Giants have a tough schedule.  The Week 2 matchup with the Cowboys could be critical since they will likely be coming off a loss to the Patriots in Week 1.  Realistically, New Jersey comes in as 8-8 material, but they could grab second with the Elliott suspension looming.

OTNAs (that’s Offensive Term for Native Americans for the new readers) will blow.  Disarray carries the day.  Landover, Md. will be lucky to see 6-10.