Tag Archives: Buffalo Bills

Red’s NFL 2024 Conference Championships Pick

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Red has a special guest this week as he welcomes the BIG DOG to the blog for his Conference Championship pick. What say ye, Dog?

Thank you, Red,

First, some interesting items:

Saint Tom- 29 years as head coach.   12 conference title appearances.  5 wins.   Trounced a couple of times but also had some bad luck there and in the Super Bowl.   

Belicheat 29/13/9.   

Reid 25/12/5.   

Walsh 10/4/3.  Add seifert and you get 18/9/5 (the 97 appearance was a Mauricci).

Gibbs 12/5/4.   Bonus points for doing it w 4 different QBs.  (Not counting round two under Danny boy.)   Missed playoffs twice w 10-6 record and good teams back before it turned into a 12 or 14 team thing 

Andy is in some rarified air.   

RED ADDS:

Chuck Noll enters the room (22/7/4)

Noll: Hey Tom, how’s it going.

Landry:  Who let this SOB in?

And now back to the BIG DOG.

On the Texans and the refs-  Mahomes was on the wrong end of Brady calls in 2018 and 2020.   Now he’s on the fun end of Mahomes calls.   I don’t agree with either penalty.  But neither is a surprise.   I’m more focused on nine sacks (I counted nine, stats might say eight) given up, missed kicks and generally not turning yards into points.   Which tends to be made harder when you give up sacks and miss kicks.   At least they won the bill O’Brien invitational again- 6-2 in the wild card game, all at home, all in the early time slot on Saturday.   Followed by 0-6 in the divisional round with another loss at the site of Bill O’s Waterloo.    This one was competitive, like the first one at Baltimore.   Bookending four beat downs.   

Speaking of sacks- they’ve made a semi comeback in the playoffs.   As a kid of the 80s I’m a turnover and sacks junkie.  Nothing more fun than watching QBs get put on their ass.   Hope it continues this weekend.   

This weekend we get a couple of interesting stars.   We have the five year rule in play- since the merger a coach /QB combo who doesn’t win the Super Bowl in their first five years as coach /primary starter never does.  It works pre-merger too if you factor out Stram/Dawson or count an AFL title.    Harbaugh/Flacco and Dungy/Manning did it in five.    McDermott/Allen are in year seven.  So are Harbaugh/Jackson but they’ll now get to 8.    The sweet spot seems to be 3 or 4 years.    

The Chiefs have been the Bills’ roadblock.    They’ve won at home and on the road.   With the better team and the lesser team.   Neither team looked great last week.  Buffalo was content to turtle up and let Baltimore find a way to hand them the game.   Minus 2012 that has been a Harbaugh/Ravens specialty.   And it worked.   It won’t tomorrow.  

The Chiefs are close to a threepeat as we’ve seen since the 49ers in 1990 – home game, won the first matchup, opponent with backup QB.   The Giants needed a fake punt and a late fumble to win 15-13 and deprive us of a Steve Young Super Bowl start (Montana suffered the two year injury late).  Here, the Chiefs are at home and favored, where I expected the Bills to be -2 or so.    The teams that overcome their playoff roadblock going back to the 70s tend to be at home.  Buffalo isn’t.   Andy and Mahomes are 4-2 in this game.   Two losses (and one win) in overtime.   Buffalo needs to beat them in this game before I believe they actually can.  The BIG DOG will take Kansas City.

RED pops in again:

Red is taking the BIlls -getting the ball first in OT and winning the game.   Buffalo 31 KC 24.

Take it away DOG!

On the other side the Commanders matter for the first time in 30 plus years.   The first thing I think of with these teams is the body bag game.  And how Washinton went back to Philly two months later and killed them and ended the Buddy Ryan era.   

Lots of talk about rookie QBs going 0-5 in conference title games.   Which makes me wonder why guys who do this for a living don’t remember Dieter Brock as a 34 year old rookie in 1985.   

All six of them (counting Brock) lost and the only two not to get trounced were Flacco Joe (threw big pick six when he had a chance to lead game winning TD drive ) and Shaun King (execrable performance but only lost 11-6 behind elite Tampa defense, and he might’ve won 6-5 if dungy had turtled up).  Daniels could be the first to win.  Philly should win this game pounding the ball.  Paradoxically they do better if Hurts has less passing yardage in the playoffs.    The Commanders seem to have something going.  Not a team of destiny- I don’t buy that crap or that teams play better with “something to play for” like the LA wildfires.   They are rolling offensively, can get pressure on Hurts, and can win a shootout even if Barkley breaks one off.   This is kind of a sentimental pick because of how much I enjoyed the Gibbs teams.   Hurts is also injured- if his mobility is limited it’ll be a factor.   The stats say Philly should win by two scores.   The spectre of injury is there for Daniels – it sunk the Niners when Purdy was a rookie.  But I think Daniels has another big day and makes a lifetime of enemies in Philly.  

Red one last time. Red thinks Barkley and the Eagles defense carry the day. Philadephia 29 Washington 19.

Red’s 202(4) NFL Conference Semi-Final Picks

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For those of you paying attention and thinking about throwing some hard earned money at the misnamed “gaming” industry this weekend, you might note that Red was 6 for 6 straight up last week.

For those of you playing the line, Red was 5-0-1, with only the Commanders/Buccaneers matchup being a push. Red doesn’t typically pick base on the odds, but you might just want to think about that.

So on to the misnamed “Divisional Round” – a round in which two teams who were not division champions could face each other. Red will go to the mat in fighting to call this weekend the Conference Semi-Finals – only because that is exactly what these games are. On to the picks:

Texans over Chiefs. Call Red crazy – he doesn’t mind because he probably is for making this pick. Let’s look back at the Texans’ painful playoff history against the Chiefs.

In the 2015 playoffs the Chiefs walloped the 9-7 Texans at NRG 30 to ZIP. This game was pretty much over after Knile Davis took the opening kickoff 106 yards for a score. Ugh. Red had almost forgotten that long Saturday afternoon.

What Red clearly remembers is the beacon of hope that shone in the first 18 minutes of the Texans/Chiefs game on Jan. 12, 2020. The football world was shocked when the Texans went up 24-0 on the Chiefs. Normality was restored by halftime with the Chiefs leading 28-24 in route to a 51-31 rout. It would take several years for the Texans to shake off that ass whomping.

So why should this year be any different? The Chiefs are not the same juggernaut they have been for the past many years. The running game is suspect. Mahomes has to carry the team – which would be a dream come true for most. CJ Stroud seems to have shaken off his sophomore slump and if Joe Mixon can bruise and cruise for over 150 yards and a brace of TDS, the Texans have a chance. But more critically, Red thinks the Chiefs have run out of rabbits and maybe even the hat to pull them out of. A team only gets some many miraculous finishes in one season. And the Texans showed real signs of life last week against a very good Chargers team. It’s a close call. Houston 27 KC 24.

Lions over Commanders. The Lions are the best team in the NFC by a long shot. Red thinks that only the Rams might have a chance against them if they make it through a frigid Sunday afternoon in Philly. Goff is playing at his best (ask the Vikings), Gibbs is bruising defenses and the Lions defense is good enough to hold down the fort. The Commanders have had a good season (meaning any season the Cowboys don’t win the NFC East) and certainly should be thinking they have a chance. But Red isn’t saying that. Take the Lions forget about the spread. Detroit 45 Washington 17.

Eagles over Rams. People are raving about how the Rams played down the stretch. But tell Red this, other than beating the Bills at home in a wild 44-42 game that could have gone either way – who did the Rams beat before waxing the overrated Vikings in the Wildcard round? The Patriots, Saints, Jets, 49ers, Cardinals – no one of consequence. Red knows you can probably say the same thing about the Eagles. And while Red doesn’t normally place much meaning in a regular season matchup, the Eagles did dispatch the Rams with some ease back in November. Only a garbage time touchdown by the Rams kept that game from looking like more of a rout. The Rams had no answer for Mr. Barkley who had 255 yards on 26 carries. Red will let you do the math. If Hurts has just an average game, with the best back in the game right now controlling the ball, Red just doesn’t see the Rams as being able to keep up. It may be close for a while, but the Eagles close out strong. Philadelphia 31 Los Angeles 20.

Bills over Ravens. Red hates picking this one. These are two teams who both deserve a shot at the Conference title. The Bills have been pretty consistent all year with but a few bumps in the road (maybe the loss to the Texans doesn’t look so bad and losing to the Ravens and Rams is no mark of disgrace). The Ravens started the season 0-2, then corrected course for a while beating the Bills 35-10, then it was up and down but come mid-December they have been really unchallenged and playing their best football. This one all comes down to who has the better game Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. The difference might be a single sack, an interception or a turnover on downs. This one is down to the wire as it should be. And is too much to ask for a blizzard game? Buffalo 31 Baltimore 28.

Red’s 2024 Weekly NFL Rankings – Week 17

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RED  Week 17

Red missed a lot of action last week what with the holidays, multiple family visits, overeating, and general EOY listlessness.  But he springs back into action for your final 2024 weekly ranking because after this week it’s the playoffs and none of this will matter. 

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1).  Not quite as dramatic this week.  Who will sit for the meaningless game against the Broncos?
  2. Minnesota Vikings (14-2).  Turns out Darn Old Sam has the Vikings on the verge of a top finish in the NFC and a 1st round bye.  The Lions may have something to say about that.
  3. Buffalo Bills (13-3).  Nobody wants to play the Bills in the playoffs – well, except for maybe the Chiefs.
  4. Detroit Lions (14-2).  Did not look impressive in eking out a win over the more or less hapless 49ers on Monday.  The defense has to play better or it could be one and done for the Cats. This week against the Vikings is a must win heading into the playoffs for the Lions to prove they’ve got the stuff. (with apologies to Cheech and Chong).
  5. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3).  Who needs Jalen Hurts against the hapless Cowboys?  Certainly not the Eagles.  But they may need Kenny Pickett this week.  Eagles fans should be pleading “please, please, please do not let Saquon Barkly play even if the single season rushing record is within reach.”
  6. Baltimore Ravens (11-5).  Outscoring their opponents by a 3 to 1 mark over the last 3 games is something you might call an indication of the havoc the Ravens could wreak as a lower seed in the playoffs.  The Texans are the likely first fodder on the route to an AFC championship game.
  7. Washington Commanders (11-5).  The Commanders could win 12 games.  The Commanders could win 12 games.  The Commanders  could win . . .  No matter how many times he says it, Red still can’t believe it.
  8. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6).  Chargers could make some noise, but realistically they are the 4th best team in the AFC.  But it’s a funny game with an oddly shaped ball.
  9. Green Bay Packers (11-5).  Red sees the Packers, packing it in, packing their bags and heading home in the first round.
  10. Pittsburgh Stealers (10-6).  Hopefully, the Stealers are happy just to be in the playoffs because not much else has gone right lately with three losses in a row against the better competition. And there is only better competition in the playoffs.
  11. Los Angeles Rams (10-6).  It looked very unlikely at the mid point of the season and even less so after a 1-4 start, but the Rams are in.  The offense has not been clicking for 3 weeks, but that could change.  
  12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7).  Maybe?
  13. Denver Broncos (9-7).  The Broncos may catch the Chiefs during a bye week for the big stars which could put the Broncos into the playoffs just in time to get stomped by a real team.
  14. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8).  A hard luck season deserves a fairy tale ending.  But fairy tales are just that.
  15. Houston Texans (9-7).  When Tank Dell went out, the lights went out in Houston.  C.J. Stroud has struggled down the stretch. Among the many ugly losses in franchise history, the utter ass-whomping the Ravens gave them on Christmas day has to rank way up there. A playoff win would be miraculous at this point.  
  16. Seattle Seahawks (9-7).  Are better than some teams playing in the postseason.  The inexplicable loss to the Giants early on has the Hawks at home for the new year.
  17. Miami Dolphins (8-8).  It just doesn’t appear that Tua will ever stay healthy enough to pull this team through.
  18. Atlanta Falcons (8-8).  They’re not dead yet!
  19. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)  Is anyone really surprised the Cards tanked?
  20. San Francisco 49ers (6-10).  Game until the end, but the end is nigh. Well about half past nigh anyway.
  21. Indianapolis Colts (7-9).  Defense let them down time and time again this season. And for the last time against the Giants?  Ugh. Oh wait, there is another game in which the Colts D can still suck.
  22. New Orleans Saints (5-11).  Will get to watch the Superb Owl from the comfort of Bourbon St. Drink up boys!
  23. Dallas Cowboys (7-9).  If you think having Dak back is going to lead this team out of the wilderness next season, well you have another think coming.  Red just wishes he could rank the Cowboys lower than this, but he is a fair man.  Not a good man, but a fair man.
  24. Carolina Panthers (4-12).  Are you still reading? What is your problem?
  25. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12).  The parade of 4-12 teams continues.
  26. Chicago Bears (4-12).  Not the worst of the 4-12 teams is damning with faint praise.
  27. New York Jets (4-12).  Aaron Rodgers is not the most sacked QB of all time.  So the Jets have that going for them.
  28. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12).  The only way is up from this season.  There are some reasons for hope in Brian Thomas, Jr. and the return of Trevor Lawrence. And they play in a shit division.
  29. New York Giants (3-13).  Red would really have liked to rank the Giants last, but they are such a disappointment to him – what with winning a game and all.
  30. Cleveland Browns (3-13).  Another year, another shitty Browns season.
  31. Tennessee Titans (3-13).  If you don’t have anything nice to say – you probably should be apply to be a bloviator on ESPN.
  32. New England Patriots (3-13).  Even Red is surprised that the Pats are the laughing stock of the league. But he’s still laughing.

Red’s 2024 – NFL Rankings Week 4

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Red was undecided about the title. Should it be Week 3 because that is the week have just finished and rankings are based on those results or Week 4 because that is the week that is coming up. Not that it matters, but the consensus is this is Week 4.

  1. Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs seem to be living on borrowed time. They are not scoring in the red zone, relying on field goals and where the hell is Mr. Kelce? But as noted until they lose the defending champs hold on to No. 1 spot.
  2. Buffalo Bills – The Bills offense is just playing better than any other team in the league right now.
  3. Minnesota Vikings – Surprise, surprise, surprise. With apologies to PFC Pyle. And if you don’t get that reference – well good for you. Total domination of the previously undefeated Texans.
  4. Seattle Seahawks – Seahawks will be hard pressed to stay undefeated unless the offensive line plays better.
  5. Pittsburgh Stealers – Red zone offense is horrible, yet they are 3-0. Red doesn’t argue with success.
  6. Philadelphia Eagles – Injuries and turnovers by Mr. Hurts abound. Eagles need to right the ship before division play.
  7. Detroit Lions – Another team with red zone troubles. Red senses a trend here.
  8. San Francisco 49ers – Injuries to the big playmakers (Deebo, McCaffery and Kittle) are a major cause for worry in Santa Somewhere.
  9. New Orleans Saints – Tayson Hill makes this offense very hard to defend against. Saints fans hope for a quick return.
  10. Los Angeles Chargers – Without Herbert look for a quick drop in the rankings next week.
  11. Green Bay Packers – Red doesn’t believe. But then again who cares what Red thinks?
  12. Houston Texans – Last week the Texans were . . . um . . . pummeled . . . yes pummeled is the word Red was looking for. And they get the biggest drop of the week as a reward.
  13. Baltimore Ravens – Ravens got a desperately needed win against the sagging Cowboys. They were swirling the drain in the 4th quarter but managed to hang on in what could be a season saver.
  14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Lack of rushing yards, not a problem as yet.
  15. New York Jets – Beating up on the weak sisters of the league only gets you so far.
  16. Washington Commanders – Moving in the right direction. Win over the Cardinals would be big right now.
  17. Arizona Cardinals – Trouble on the O line gets the Cards top spot as mediocre team of the week.
  18. Los Angeles Rams -Being down your top two wideouts usually spells trouble in this league.
  19. Atlanta Falcons – A credible showing against the Chiefs. NFC South looks to be a dog fight between 3 teams right now.
  20. Dallas Cowboys – Cowboys defense has been wretched in first 4 games. Barely beating the Giants on Thursday was not a good look.
  21. Cleveland Browns – Is Flacco Joe still available? No. Hmmm.
  22. Miami Dolphins – Is Flacco Joe still available? See above.
  23. Las Vegas Raiders – An unbalanced attack forced by having to continually play from behind spells trouble in the desert.
  24. Indianapolis Colts – Should not be this bad. Anthony Richardson needs to step up or step down.
  25. Chicago Bears – Untapped potential so far this season.
  26. Denver Broncos – Red always manages to end up with a worthless Bronco running back on his fantasy team.
  27. New York Giants – Credible effort against a sagging Cowboys squad.
  28. Jacksonville Jaguars – “I’ve seen teams suck before, but they were the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked.” H. Simpson. A useful quote likely to be heard again this season.
  29. Carolina Panthers – Who needs Flacco Joe when you have the Red Rifle? Very impressive, but can he keep it up?
  30. New England Patriots – How the mighty have fallen. Flat on their face apparently.
  31. Cincinnati Bengals – On life support right now.
  32. Tennessee Titans – Someone pull the plug, please.

Red’s 2018 NFL Predictions – AFC East

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New England Patriots  –  This is where every year Red writes that it is spineless and weak to continue to pick the Patriots but that he will continue to do so until proven wrong.  Red has yet to be proven wrong.  Pats are a bit down but still finish atop a weak division even with a relatively weak schedule.  Red is looking forward to week 15 matchup with Stealers.  New England sits at 11-5

Buffalo Bills  – Red kind of likes Josh Allen who seems to have a bit of Carson Wentz – QB out of nowhere feel to him and will not be surprised if he moves in to the lineup at some point.  Sorry all you AJ McCarron fans out there – both of you.  It’s just too bad there is so little else to like about this team.   There is a good secondary on defense, but lack of offensive weapons is very troublesome.  Buffalo (Orchard Park) is 8-8 material

Miami Dolphins –  Red swears there are rumor that there is still an NFL team in the greater Miami region.  Beyond that Red is clueless.  Miami at 6-10.

New York Jets –  Meet the Jets, Greet the Jets, Step right up and beat the Jets.  Red still remembers an older fraternity brother singing that one at breakfast one bright shining morning.  Funny what you remember.  Funny what is still true.    Led by tired old Josh McCown (Sam Houston State for the Texas reference), the Jets are likely to be featured in at least half a dozen Shit Bowls this year.  Jets are 3-13.

Red’s NFL Picks – AFC East

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Ah, the NFC East – also known as the “uncontested lay-up” division for all pundits.

Patriots. As long time readers know (and Red hopes they are both awake and not hungover this morning), this is where Red always writes that it is “cowardly and spineless to pick the Patriots year after year” and then confirms his cowardice and utter lack of vertebral support by picking the Patriots anyway. In fairness to Red, look at the rest of this division – details to follow below.   Red has finally come to terms with the fact that Brady and Bellicheat long ago made a pact with the Dark Lord and while their souls may be damned for all eternity at least they will both end up in the Hall of Fame. Realistically, Red thinks this may be the season where Tom Brady finally looks tired and old and Bellicheat gets his playbook stolen by Russian hackers.  That coupled with a brutal stretch after the Week 9 bye; from November 12 to December 17 the Pats play 5 of 6 games on the road against real competition (Broncos, Raiders, Dolphins and Stealers).  Oh, for crying out loud. Quit kidding yourself Red, you know you have no balls when it comes to this division.  Save your foolishness for the NFC West. Who on the schedule can beat the Pats even on a bad day?  Maybe the Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Falcons and Stealers? Certainly not the Texans as long as Tom Brady is in the house.   New England breezes to another divisional crown with a 12-4 record.  Red really hates himself today.

Bills.  The Bills have not made the playoffs in 17 years – the longest active post-season drought in the NFL (yes – worse than Cleveland even).  Red sees no reason that streak ends anytime soon.  Yes, the inevitably flawed “Rex Ryan as a head coach” experiment ended up with broken glass on the floor and poisonous gasses filling the laboratory/locker room.  Trump supporter Ryan failed in his promise to make Bills’ fans “tired of winning.”  New coach Sean McDermott will at least not be flaunting absurd predictions  of success.  Rather, the Bills seem to be building an offense suited to the limited repertoire of QB Tyrod Taylor.  Coordinator Rick Dennison is implementing a version of the vaunted “West Coast Offense” with short routes mixed with long bombs and quick decisions.   If Sammy Watkins can stay on the field, he leads a corps of competent wideouts.  And then there is the redoubtable LeSean McCoy.  Red isn’t about to guess what to make of his 2017 season.  On the defensive side, out is the Ryan family’s complicated 3-4 scheme and back in with a traditional 4-3.  The Bills seem headed in the right direction after years of aimless wandering, but that probably only translates to a less than awful season.  Orchard Park is reasonably happy with an 8-8 campaign.

Dolphins.  The Dolphins at least went 10-6 and made the playoffs last year. But against the Pats, they were behind 31-3 in week 3 before rallying to lose by only 7 and then were blown out 35-14 in week 17.  In the playoffs the Stealers pushed them aside like a Latvian President and that was it for the aquatic mammals.  The Dolphins cupboard is not bare with up and coming talent like Jay Ajayi and others.  But when your season depends on Jay Cutler . . .  [insert bad thing happening here].  Miami regresses to 7-9.

Jets. The Jets have been a reality TV show for the last several seasons – and a really bad reality TV show at that.  Of course, when the White House is pretty much a reality TV show, maybe Red is on the wrong side of this issue.  Probably not, but Red is an open-minded sort of guy.  But the Jets! What is going on with this franchise? When Red went to the Jets  official website – they did not have a depth chart posted!  Maybe when your choices for starting quarterback include the appropriately named Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty it’s just as well to keep everyone in the dark.  What is going on is a massive roster dump to get the first draft pick next season – thought to be USC quarterback Sam Darnold. Every season Red’s fondest wish is for a 6-10 team to make the playoffs.  His runner-up wish is for a team to go winless.  The Jets love Red this season –  0-16 Baby!

Red’s 2017 NFL Picks – AFC East

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As long time readers know (and Red hopes they are both awake and not too terribly hung-over this morning), this part of the annual predictions is where Red always writes that it is “cowardly and spineless to pick the Patriots year after year” and then confirms his cowardice and utter lack of vertebral support by picking the Patriots anyway.

In fairness to Red, look at this division.

Patriots. Red has finally come to terms with the fact that Brady and Bellicheat long ago made a pact with the Dark Lord and while their souls may be damned for all eternity to the lake of fire at least they will both end up in the Hall of Fame – which may not be an altogether bad trade-off. Realistically, Red thinks this may be the season where Tom Brady finally looks tired and old and Bellicheat gets his playbook stolen by Russian hackers.  Quit kidding yourself Red, you know you have no balls when it comes to this division.  Save your foolishness for the NFC West. Who on the schedule can beat the Pats even on a bad hair day for Tom?  Maybe the Chiefs, Raiders, Falcons and Stealers?  “Maybe” being the operative word here.  New England breezes to a 13-3 record.  Red hates himself today.

Bills.  This team hasn’t made the playoffs in 17 years – the longest active post-season drought in the NFL (yes – worse than Cleveland even). Do they deserve a second look in 2017?  Anquan Boldin quit on them. Emphatically not! The misery continues in Orchard Park 6-10.

Dolphins. At least this team went 10-6 and with some help made the playoffs last year. But against the Pats, they were behind 31-3 in week 3 before rallying to lose by only 7 and then were blown out 35-14 in week 17.  In the playoffs the Stealers pushed them aside like a Latvian President and that was it for the Fish.  There is a void in the backfield. And to the rescue comes Jay Cutler? At least he has rising star Jay Ajayi to hand the ball to.   Red holds out some hope for the Dolphins in 2017.  He also still plays the lottery.  Miami 8-8.

Jets.  When you’re a Jet, you’re a Jet all the way, from your first losing bet, to your knees for to pray. When you’re a Jet, you lose the division.  The Jets have been a reality TV show for the last several seasons – and a really bad reality TV show at that.  What is going on with that franchise.  Go to their official website – they don’t even have a depth chart posted!  Maybe when your choices for starting quarterback are the appropriately named Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty it’s just as well to keep everyone in the dark. Jets 2-14.