Tag Archives: NFL Playoffs

No Football until August, yet somehow we will survive.

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AKA – Red’s 2024 Season Finale – Super Bowl Pick.

It’s been a long season to say the least. Red did okay on preseason picks for the playoffs, was super in the Wildcard Round, 50% in both the Conference Semi-Finals and Finals and now has to pick the NFL Champion for the 2024 Season.

Red picked both the Chiefs and Eagles to win their divisions. Red has been riding the Eagles bandwagon for a while and shorting the Chiefs (and looking foolish).

The Chiefs sure look like the Team of Destiny in going for the third title in a row – a feat only accomplished by the Packers in the 30s and 60s. It would cap off a six year run of almost unmatched excellence in league history – with the prospect of an even longer run. Mahomes has the magic touch, a good offensive line, plenty of downfield targets and a running game that works because the passing offense is so fearsome to most defenses. Is there a way to stop the Chiefs’ offensive juggernaut? Maybe. Looked at objectively and ignoring the W/L record, the Chiefs offense has been rather mediocre all season – mostly doing just enough to win. KC has scored 30+ points exactly twice this season. They put up 30 in a squeaker against the lowly Panthers in November, and 32 against the Bills in the Conference final. They failed to score at least 20 points four times during the regular season. So on average the Chiefs offense is good for 22.6 ppg. That is just good enough to edge out the Cowboys for 16th place. The running game is even worse at only 105.3 yards per game – or somewhere close to the top of the bottom third of the league. Passing stats are better, but not spectacular. So how do they do it? Red is hesitant to say “smoke and mirrors” or blame the “refs” and the football gods. However, the gods are looking better and better as an explanation. The Chiefs have had multiple semi-miraculous finishes to close out games this season. Whether they win the Big One today may just depend on that. Red thinks the Chiefs may have gone to the well once too often.

The Eagles are averaging 27.2 ppg but the real stat in their favor is the massive advantage in rushing yards. They have gained 3048 yards on the ground which is about 1250 yards more than the Chiefs. The Eagles also sport a massive offensive line that looks to be capable of mashing any defense into the ground and is almost uniformly thought to be the best in the game in producing rushing yards. It’s no wonder that Saquon Barkley wanted to play for the Eagles. His greatness is only augmented by the beasts up front. His 2005 yards tops the league and Red isn’t even going to bother to scroll down to find the top Chiefs running back. This doesn’t even take into account the top two downfield targets in Brown and Smith who only had 135 catches between them because of the dominant running game – but who would likely have 100+ receptions on any other team. And both are pretty good downfield blockers to boot. That leaves Mr. Hurts who is dual threat – not quite on the level of LJ or Hayden, but has to be accounted for on every play. (Mahomes is no slouch but it seems clear that Andy doesn’t want him to run anymore than absolutely required). If the Eagles can put up 200+ rushing yards . . .

So the bottom line is here. Red is taking the Eagles to win in a shootout. Philadelphia 32 Kansas City 27. Down to the wire. In the immortal words of Al Davis, it’s time for the Eagles to “Just win baby.”

See you next year.

Love, Red

Red’s NFL 2024 Conference Championships Pick

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Red has a special guest this week as he welcomes the BIG DOG to the blog for his Conference Championship pick. What say ye, Dog?

Thank you, Red,

First, some interesting items:

Saint Tom- 29 years as head coach.   12 conference title appearances.  5 wins.   Trounced a couple of times but also had some bad luck there and in the Super Bowl.   

Belicheat 29/13/9.   

Reid 25/12/5.   

Walsh 10/4/3.  Add seifert and you get 18/9/5 (the 97 appearance was a Mauricci).

Gibbs 12/5/4.   Bonus points for doing it w 4 different QBs.  (Not counting round two under Danny boy.)   Missed playoffs twice w 10-6 record and good teams back before it turned into a 12 or 14 team thing 

Andy is in some rarified air.   

RED ADDS:

Chuck Noll enters the room (22/7/4)

Noll: Hey Tom, how’s it going.

Landry:  Who let this SOB in?

And now back to the BIG DOG.

On the Texans and the refs-  Mahomes was on the wrong end of Brady calls in 2018 and 2020.   Now he’s on the fun end of Mahomes calls.   I don’t agree with either penalty.  But neither is a surprise.   I’m more focused on nine sacks (I counted nine, stats might say eight) given up, missed kicks and generally not turning yards into points.   Which tends to be made harder when you give up sacks and miss kicks.   At least they won the bill O’Brien invitational again- 6-2 in the wild card game, all at home, all in the early time slot on Saturday.   Followed by 0-6 in the divisional round with another loss at the site of Bill O’s Waterloo.    This one was competitive, like the first one at Baltimore.   Bookending four beat downs.   

Speaking of sacks- they’ve made a semi comeback in the playoffs.   As a kid of the 80s I’m a turnover and sacks junkie.  Nothing more fun than watching QBs get put on their ass.   Hope it continues this weekend.   

This weekend we get a couple of interesting stars.   We have the five year rule in play- since the merger a coach /QB combo who doesn’t win the Super Bowl in their first five years as coach /primary starter never does.  It works pre-merger too if you factor out Stram/Dawson or count an AFL title.    Harbaugh/Flacco and Dungy/Manning did it in five.    McDermott/Allen are in year seven.  So are Harbaugh/Jackson but they’ll now get to 8.    The sweet spot seems to be 3 or 4 years.    

The Chiefs have been the Bills’ roadblock.    They’ve won at home and on the road.   With the better team and the lesser team.   Neither team looked great last week.  Buffalo was content to turtle up and let Baltimore find a way to hand them the game.   Minus 2012 that has been a Harbaugh/Ravens specialty.   And it worked.   It won’t tomorrow.  

The Chiefs are close to a threepeat as we’ve seen since the 49ers in 1990 – home game, won the first matchup, opponent with backup QB.   The Giants needed a fake punt and a late fumble to win 15-13 and deprive us of a Steve Young Super Bowl start (Montana suffered the two year injury late).  Here, the Chiefs are at home and favored, where I expected the Bills to be -2 or so.    The teams that overcome their playoff roadblock going back to the 70s tend to be at home.  Buffalo isn’t.   Andy and Mahomes are 4-2 in this game.   Two losses (and one win) in overtime.   Buffalo needs to beat them in this game before I believe they actually can.  The BIG DOG will take Kansas City.

RED pops in again:

Red is taking the BIlls -getting the ball first in OT and winning the game.   Buffalo 31 KC 24.

Take it away DOG!

On the other side the Commanders matter for the first time in 30 plus years.   The first thing I think of with these teams is the body bag game.  And how Washinton went back to Philly two months later and killed them and ended the Buddy Ryan era.   

Lots of talk about rookie QBs going 0-5 in conference title games.   Which makes me wonder why guys who do this for a living don’t remember Dieter Brock as a 34 year old rookie in 1985.   

All six of them (counting Brock) lost and the only two not to get trounced were Flacco Joe (threw big pick six when he had a chance to lead game winning TD drive ) and Shaun King (execrable performance but only lost 11-6 behind elite Tampa defense, and he might’ve won 6-5 if dungy had turtled up).  Daniels could be the first to win.  Philly should win this game pounding the ball.  Paradoxically they do better if Hurts has less passing yardage in the playoffs.    The Commanders seem to have something going.  Not a team of destiny- I don’t buy that crap or that teams play better with “something to play for” like the LA wildfires.   They are rolling offensively, can get pressure on Hurts, and can win a shootout even if Barkley breaks one off.   This is kind of a sentimental pick because of how much I enjoyed the Gibbs teams.   Hurts is also injured- if his mobility is limited it’ll be a factor.   The stats say Philly should win by two scores.   The spectre of injury is there for Daniels – it sunk the Niners when Purdy was a rookie.  But I think Daniels has another big day and makes a lifetime of enemies in Philly.  

Red one last time. Red thinks Barkley and the Eagles defense carry the day. Philadephia 29 Washington 19.

Red’s 202(4) NFL Conference Semi-Final Picks

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For those of you paying attention and thinking about throwing some hard earned money at the misnamed “gaming” industry this weekend, you might note that Red was 6 for 6 straight up last week.

For those of you playing the line, Red was 5-0-1, with only the Commanders/Buccaneers matchup being a push. Red doesn’t typically pick base on the odds, but you might just want to think about that.

So on to the misnamed “Divisional Round” – a round in which two teams who were not division champions could face each other. Red will go to the mat in fighting to call this weekend the Conference Semi-Finals – only because that is exactly what these games are. On to the picks:

Texans over Chiefs. Call Red crazy – he doesn’t mind because he probably is for making this pick. Let’s look back at the Texans’ painful playoff history against the Chiefs.

In the 2015 playoffs the Chiefs walloped the 9-7 Texans at NRG 30 to ZIP. This game was pretty much over after Knile Davis took the opening kickoff 106 yards for a score. Ugh. Red had almost forgotten that long Saturday afternoon.

What Red clearly remembers is the beacon of hope that shone in the first 18 minutes of the Texans/Chiefs game on Jan. 12, 2020. The football world was shocked when the Texans went up 24-0 on the Chiefs. Normality was restored by halftime with the Chiefs leading 28-24 in route to a 51-31 rout. It would take several years for the Texans to shake off that ass whomping.

So why should this year be any different? The Chiefs are not the same juggernaut they have been for the past many years. The running game is suspect. Mahomes has to carry the team – which would be a dream come true for most. CJ Stroud seems to have shaken off his sophomore slump and if Joe Mixon can bruise and cruise for over 150 yards and a brace of TDS, the Texans have a chance. But more critically, Red thinks the Chiefs have run out of rabbits and maybe even the hat to pull them out of. A team only gets some many miraculous finishes in one season. And the Texans showed real signs of life last week against a very good Chargers team. It’s a close call. Houston 27 KC 24.

Lions over Commanders. The Lions are the best team in the NFC by a long shot. Red thinks that only the Rams might have a chance against them if they make it through a frigid Sunday afternoon in Philly. Goff is playing at his best (ask the Vikings), Gibbs is bruising defenses and the Lions defense is good enough to hold down the fort. The Commanders have had a good season (meaning any season the Cowboys don’t win the NFC East) and certainly should be thinking they have a chance. But Red isn’t saying that. Take the Lions forget about the spread. Detroit 45 Washington 17.

Eagles over Rams. People are raving about how the Rams played down the stretch. But tell Red this, other than beating the Bills at home in a wild 44-42 game that could have gone either way – who did the Rams beat before waxing the overrated Vikings in the Wildcard round? The Patriots, Saints, Jets, 49ers, Cardinals – no one of consequence. Red knows you can probably say the same thing about the Eagles. And while Red doesn’t normally place much meaning in a regular season matchup, the Eagles did dispatch the Rams with some ease back in November. Only a garbage time touchdown by the Rams kept that game from looking like more of a rout. The Rams had no answer for Mr. Barkley who had 255 yards on 26 carries. Red will let you do the math. If Hurts has just an average game, with the best back in the game right now controlling the ball, Red just doesn’t see the Rams as being able to keep up. It may be close for a while, but the Eagles close out strong. Philadelphia 31 Los Angeles 20.

Bills over Ravens. Red hates picking this one. These are two teams who both deserve a shot at the Conference title. The Bills have been pretty consistent all year with but a few bumps in the road (maybe the loss to the Texans doesn’t look so bad and losing to the Ravens and Rams is no mark of disgrace). The Ravens started the season 0-2, then corrected course for a while beating the Bills 35-10, then it was up and down but come mid-December they have been really unchallenged and playing their best football. This one all comes down to who has the better game Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. The difference might be a single sack, an interception or a turnover on downs. This one is down to the wire as it should be. And is too much to ask for a blizzard game? Buffalo 31 Baltimore 28.

Red’s 2021 NFL Wrap-Up

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Red is skipping a good portion of the 2021 wrap-up because he failed to complete his picks for the NFC West and did not give a complete pre-season pick of the division champs and wild card entries.

Perhaps the less said the better about Red’s Playoff Picks. So Red will say less.

Wildcard Week

Red hit on the Chiefs, Buccaneers, Bills and Bengals. He missed out on calling the Cowboys over the Niners (YEA!) and the Cardinals over the Rams (UGH!). 4 out of 6 will get you somewhere

Week 2 aka the misnamed Divisional Round

Red scored with picking the Rams and the Chiefs but missed out on the Niners eking out a win over the hapless Packers and was totally shocked when the Bengals won two playoff games in a row and dispatched the beat up Titans after 31 years of misery. Sadly, other commitments caused Red to miss what may be have been the greatest game in NFL playoff history with the Chiefs pulling a miracle out of the bag to beat the Bills. 2-2 for the week.

Conference Championships

Red broke even that week. The Bengals continued to shock in dispatching the Chiefs, while picking the Rams to beat the Niners did not require much in the way of mental gymnastics. 1-1 in the big games.

Superb Owl

Red picked the Rams while holding his nose.

OVERALL – Red was 8-5 in his playoff prognostications.

Red’s NFL Weekly Ratings 2020 – Week 16

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Red’s long held dream of a 6-10 team making the playoffs is still alive thanks to the pathetic excuse for a professional football division that is the NFC East. If the 6-9 Washington FTs lose to the we-can’t-believe-we-are-out-of-it Philadelphia Eagles and the 5-10 New York Football Giants beat the 6-9 Dallas Cowboys then all three teams will finish with 6-10 records and the Giants will make the playoffs on a tiebreaker. Sadly, however, there appears to be no chance for a blizzard game in New Jersey on Sunday. You can’t have everything. But on a positive note, we did have Steve Kornacki breaking down the playoff picture on Sunday Night Football for NBC – wearing the Kornacki Khakis of course. Onward through the fog.

Red’s Top Ten:

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1). Having clinched the top seed in a sloppy game against the Falcons, the Chiefs will not play on the road until either the Superb Owl or next season. Red thinks the BIlls are the only AFC team that can beat the Chiefs.
  2. Buffalo Bills (12-3). Bills fans celebrate the first AFC East Championship since the days of Jim Kelly. That a complete dismemberment of the Patriots on MNF makes for a glorious season. Only the Chiefs stand in the way of another Superb Owl loss (or possibly victory).
  3. Green Bay Packers (12-3). Packers were certainly impressive in dispatching the Titans as if they were a Trump lawsuit challenging the election results.
  4. New Orleans Saints (11-4). Four straight NFC South Division Titles and a dollar will get you a Jack-in-the-Box taco. That said, Red doesn’t think that Alvin Kamara is going to rest on his record tying 6 rushing touchdowns against the Vikings on Christmas Day. AK tied Ernie Nevers who had 6 for the Chicago Cardinals in 1929. Red isn’t sure but that probably was the longest standing single game record left in the books. That probably leaves Norm Van Brocklin’s single game passing yardage record as the longest outstanding single game record.
  5. Pittsburgh Stealers (12-3). The Stealers rebounded with a big come-from-behind victory against the chocking Colts. Red still wonders if the Stealers will make it out of the first round of the playoffs against the Dolphins, Ravens or Titans.
  6. Seattle Seahawks (11-4). Give the Seahawks their due, they punched the Rams to the brink of playoff elimination while securing the NFC West title. That may be as good as it gets for the Seahawks.
  7. Miami Dolphins (10-5). Is there another miracle finish in store for the Dolphins? The Dolphins are Just a victory over the Bills away from the playoffs. And Red is just a few hundred million short of being a billionaire. Miami will be a hot pick for the Superb Owl next season with oodles of draft picks and cap space.
  8. Baltimore Ravens (10-5). The Ravens have righted the ship and trimmed the sails with four consecutive wins over weak competition (with exception of the Browns). Can the Ravens beat a good football team?
  9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5). The reward for what Red views as an entirely mediocre season (the Bucs will likely finish with exactly one win over a team with a winning record (how this team beat down the Packers is a mystery) probably will be getting to play the winner of the NFC East and an almost assured second round playoff game against more formidable competition. If they win against the Falcons on Sunday, the Bucs might just be the worst 11-5 team in NFL history.
  10. Chicago Bears (8-7). Bears will clinch a playoff spot with an upset win over the Packers at Soldier Field.

Still in the Hunt:

11. LA Rams (9-6). A win against the Cardinals and they are in the playoffs. Sounds exciting.

12. Arizona Cardinals (8-7). A win against the Rams and they are in the playoffs. Sounds exciting.

13. Tennessee Titans (10-5). Red has been on the Titans’ bandwagon all year. His horn was ripped out of his hands this week by the Packers – who exposed all the flaws in the Titans. Titans still have a clear path to the playoffs if they can beat the Texans. And if they cannot, then the Titans deserve to sit and watch.

14. Cleveland Browns (10-5). Red can’t really blame the crippled Browns for losing to the Jets but it was about the most Browns’ thing yet this season. Red still thinks they can beat the Stealers at home and make it to the dance.

15. Indianapolis Colts (10-5). On life support now despite a pretty good season.

15. Washington FT’s (6-9). See above.

16. New York Giants (5-10). See above.

17. Dallas Cowboys (6-9). See above. Is Andy Dalton better than at least 10 other current starting quarterbacks in the league? Let’s see – Newton, Bridgewater, Cousins, Jones, Fitzpatrick (sort of) and whoever is starting for the Jaguars, Bengals, Broncos, Jets and Bears.

The Dogs of the Downs:

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-14). Nobody does football worse.
  2. New Jersey Jets (2-13). Red is rooting for a 3 game win streak to finish the season. Watch out 2021.
  3. Houston Texans (4-11). It’s not a dumpster fire on South Main – the entire dump is ablaze. Is Urban Meyer really interested in this franchise?
  4. Atlanta Falcons (4-11). Never have so many done so little with so much.
  5. Philadelphia Eagles (4-10-1). A truly pathetic season all around. And the prospects are not looking good.

In an amazing (but not altogether unpredictable) turn-around, the Houston Texans lost to the Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points after being up 24-0 in the second quarter of Sunday’s playoff game.  The 44 point swing may be the largest post-season change in NFL history.  Red is going to bother looking that one up, because it doesn’t matter if the Texans C-H-O-K-E is historic – the humiliation and disappointment is enough.

The Texans were effectively gifted 14 points on a blocked punt (give the special teams credit) and a muffed punt by KC speedster Tyreek Hill (curiously attempting a punt return for only the second time this season).   But still a 24-0 lead should guarantee a competitive game down the stretch.  Not so for the hapless Texans.  Red does not fault Head Coach Bill O’ the Clown O’Brien for taking a field goal when faced with 4th and 1 in the “red zone”.   But after the Chiefs marched effortlessly down the field following a brilliant kick-off return, BO botched the next series with a foolish fake punt that even Red could see coming.  That gave the Chiefs another short field and after another quick score to make it 24-14 –  a new lease on their playoff football life.

The Chiefs proceeded to ultimately score touchdowns on seven straight possessions while the Texans offense returned to the BO tank in which in normally lives.  Being outscored 51-7 in any stretch of any game is agony enough.  But when you had the game in hand it is a franchise altering result – or at least it should be.

If this debacle is not enough to get Bill O’ the Clown fired, then it is hard to imagine what would.  He and defensive coordinator Romeo “I’m not on the take from our opponents even though it sure looks like it” Cremel need to exit NRG this week.  If not, the talent on this team (and there is talent) will be wasted for at least one more season.

Really, the Texans need a clean sweep from top to bottom.  It starts with hiring an actual general manager who may be able to find someone, somewhere willing to take over this reclamation project.

Quote for the Day

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“If he plays into his forties, he may throw for a 100,000 yards.”

Archie Manning on Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes of Tyler, Texas.

Red just hopes he doesn’t throw for 500 of them on Sunday.  However, he is still picking the Chiefs to beat the Texans, if not handily, by more than one score.

Red’s NFL Picks Wild Card Weekend

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But first – a recap of Red’s playoff picks from the beginning of the season.

In the AFC – Red had Titans, Chiefs, Ravens and Patriots as division champs with the Chargers and Browns getting wild card spots.  So 4 out of 6 actually made the playoffs and the Titans had a shot at division crown until week 16.   Not bad, but the picks of the Chargers and Browns look comical now.  Red should have known better with the Chargers as they always disappoint him and play 16 road games.  The Browns – fool Red twice, shame on Red.

In the NFC – Red had the Cardinals, Bears, Eagles and Saints as division winners with the Packers and Seahawks as wild cards.  Again 4 out of 6 make the playoffs, but Red’s division winner picks were more than a little lame.  Red really believed in Kliff Kingsbury and the Kardinals (sounds like a 60’s British invasion group) but should have known better and Da Bears’ season went down the tubes in week one with an awful loss to Green Bay in an awful start to NFL’s 100th season.

Wild Card Weekend Picks

Texans over Bills –  Having a defensive end  playing at quarterback presents challenges for any defense.   Josh Allen will prevail on almost any [insert down here] and short situation.  His running ability allows the Bills to set up in multiple, interesting formations (like the Wing-T and somewhere Billy Kilmer is smiling). And he can be an effective passer at times. The Texans need to worry less about pass rush and concentrate on tight coverage to force Allen to make tough throws into coverage.  This will be a challenge since Romeo Cremel’s defensive scheme seems oddly designed to allow a variety of receivers to run openly and freely through the Texans’ secondary.  Which means this game probably comes down to the Texans’ offense putting enough points on the board to make up for what has become a Shit Bowl quality defense.  If Fulller V is healthy it probably all works out.  If not, . . .   Houston 31  Orchard Park 27.

Titans over Patriots –  A guy can dream can’t he.  The Pats looked disorganized and sad in the final game loss to the Dolphins (led by the redoubtable R. Fitzpatpick).  The Titans have looked very respectable since ditching Red’s one time favorite M. Mariota for one of the most amazing quarterbacks in NFL history – Ryan Tannehill.   Here is a guy who couldn’t solidify a spot as quarterback at Texas A&M until his senior season.  He had a decent season – but not good enough to keep the respected Mike Sherman from getting axed.  Then he more or less stumbled around in Miami for 6 seasons having a winning record in games started one time (8-5 in 2016) before catching something in a bottle this season to lead the Titans to a 7-3 record over the last 10 games of the season.  Is this a guy who has finally found the formula (i.e. play with the NFL’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry) or is this a one season wonder?  Who knows, Red sure doesn’t.  The aforementioned Mr. Henry presents a huge problem for any defense and then combined with possibly emerging superstar A.J. Brown making huge play after huge play at WR, the Titans offense can play with anybody – except maybe the Pats truly outstanding defense.  Meanwhile in the huddle, the Pats offense continues to unimpress.  TB 12 has looked tired and old much of the season and has been bailed out by Pats defense repeatedly this season. When facing the weak sisters, the Pats offense has looked completely respectable in dispatching the lame and infirm.  Against playoff teams, the Pats offense has put up 16, 20, 17, 22, 16 and 24.  Of course, that has been enough to go 3-3 beating the Bills twice and the then floundering Eagles.  By Red’s reckoning that means the Titans are at least a 50/50 shot to win.  The naysayers will remind Red that the Titans (then Oilers) have not won in Foxboro since 2003.  Red says BFD.  Tennessee 20  New England 19 

Seahawks over Eagles  –  This is the toughest call of the week.  At reasonably full strength, Red could see this game going either way and might lean towards the Eagles at home.  But the Eagles are so beat up right now, that it tips slightly towards Pete the Cheat’s crew.  Red would like to see Carson Wentz actually win a playoff game for his team, but when down to the wire, he would bet on R. Wilson.  Seattle 24 Philadelphia 20 

Saints over Vikings  –  Saints are out for revenge and it doesn’t matter who is in their way.  This week it is the unfortunate Vikings – the team that Red believes is most undeserving of the playoffs.  The Vikings beat one playoff team all season (the then floundering Eagles – is there a pattern here?).  Other than that, they did not beat a team with a winning record all season.  Yes, they were close in games against the Packers,  Chiefs and Seahawks (losing all by one score or less), but those are the proving ground games and the Vikings are unproven to date.  The Saints meanwhile have had trouble in games that they are supposed to win (remember the loss to the 7-9 division winning Seahawks in 2010).  Curiously, the Vikings have been the Saints most frequent playoff opponent with 4 matchups beginning with the Saints first ever playoff appearance in 1987.   And the Saints are 1-3 versus the Vikings having beaten them only in the 2009 Superb Owl winning season in the NFC championship game.  The Saints are loaded on offense but depend entirely too much on M. Thomas (an amazing 149 receptions for 1725 yards!!!!).  They need Cook and Ginn to take some of the load and Kamara to have a decent game.  The Vikings have Diggs and Cooks and some other guys including the overrated Kirk Cousins.  Red will take Drew Brees in his closing window of opportunity for at least one more week.  New Orleans 35 Minnesota 20. 

Red’s NFL Picks 2018(sort of) – Division Championships

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After going 0-4 on Wildcard Weekend, Uncle Red decided to skip the poorly named Divisional Round but would probably have gone 3-1 (picking the Chargers foolishly) if he had bothered.  But he didn’t – so no countee!  But today is a bit slow and Red is a bit down in the mouth and what better time could there be to make some more foolish choices and almost cap off a season of sub-mediocrity in the prognostication game.

AFC Championship –  Chiefs over Patriots.  How can the Pats have possibly played in 8 consecutive AFC Championship games?  The odds of that happening in the modern NFL are pretty low – given “parity”, injuries, the odd bounce of the ball and bad calls.  But they have done it – so a tip of the ancient sombrero to Bellicheat and gang who call it up year after year after year after year . . . shampoo, rinse, repeat.  But notably, the Pats have only won 2 NFL Championships during that run and both of those were very close calls in which the opposition essentially self-destructed (Pete the Cheat’s absurd call on the goal line that kept the Seahawks from winning in the 2014 playoffs and the Falcons total meltdown to lose in OT after 2017 season.   Is there any real reason to pick against the Pats here?  Probably not.  The offense was absurdly efficient in destroying the Chargers last week.  Here is the one glitch in Perfect Pats Playoff Performance.  They haven’t won a road playoff game since 2007 and the only time they have won the AFC title game on the road in the B&B era is when they played at Pittsburgh in 2001 and 2004 playoffs.  First, no wonder Stealer fans have a special place in Hell reserved for the Pats.  And second that is, of course, ancient history in the NFL scheme of things.  However, more recent history does not look that great for the Pats.  They were 3-5 on the road this season and all 5 road losses were to non-playoff teams.   Bad weather will probably mean nothing to the Pats and will more likely impact the Chiefs wild offensive scheme.  The latest forecast seems to have the precipitation moved out by Sunday – but with brutally cold (below 10F) temperatures.

As for the Chiefs, they were Red’s preseason pick to win it all and he certainly is not going back on that call.  Mahomes is almost certain to win the MVP in his second season.  He is playing with confidence.  Even after the wild 43-40 loss to the Patriots in the regular season, it seemed to Red that the Chiefs were walking off the field thinking “Yeah, we can play with these guys” while the Pats looked like “What the hell just happened and how did we win that one?”  The Chiefs simply have to score early and often before the Pats defense makes the inevitable in-game adjustments.   And maybe just maybe the Chiefs defense is playing with some confidence after ass-whomping the Colts last week.  All in all it adds up to Red picking Kansas City 31 New England 24.

NFC Championship Game – Saints over Rams.  No weather worries here.  Saints have huge homefield advantage in the Superdome with a rabid Saints crowd.  If you haven’t been to a Saints game, you just really cannot appreciate how crazy that scene is for a big game. Yes, the Saints have looked vulnerable at times this season – losing to the Cowboys doesn’t seem quite as bad as it did at the time and the opening game loss to the Buccaneers seems darn near inexplicable now (the season-ending loss to the Panthers was meaningless).  But other than a few such glitches the Saints have been about the most consistent team in the league.

Meanwhile, the Rams only lost to the Saints, Bears and Eagles (all playoff teams) and they won the wild shoot-out with the Chiefs in week 11.  They clearly can play with anyone.  This just might be the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history.  And of course you ask – what was the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history.  Well, actually it’s a tie between the Chargers 41-38 win over the Bengals in 1981 and the Bills 41-38 win over the Oilers in 1992 (the game  which made Red never really care about the outcome of another game after that).  Both were overtime games won by a field goal obviously.  Red is not predicting OT here, just massive amounts of yardage gained and goal lines crossed.  Brees and Goff both have so many weapons at their disposal.  On defense, the Rams gave up 30 or more points seven times and more than 40 points twice.  Meanwhile, the Saints gave up more than 30 only four times and those included  the inexplicable (Bucs) and the meaningless (Panthers) losses of the season.  Given all of this, Red is calling for a “Don’t miss a minute of this one because you might miss out on 3 scores” doozy of a game.  New Orleans 45 Los Angeles 38.   

Red’s 2018 NFL Predictions – Playoffs

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Red has picked all the divisions (see below) and now it is time to chart out the playoffs.

Red has it as follows:

NFC Division Champs:  Eagles, Falcons, Vikings and Rams.

NFC Wildcards:  Bears and Saints

AFC Division Champs:  Patriots, Stealers, Texans and Chiefs

AFC Wildcards:  Chargers and Browns

Red likes the Stealers and Chiefs in the AFC title game at Arrowhead with the Chiefs barely pulling it out.

Red sees the Eagles and Falcons in the NFC title match in Philly with the Falcons nabbing the banner.

Red goes all in for the Chiefs as the NFL Champions for the first time since 1969.