Category Archives: Red’s NFL Picks

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 3

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Red was 5-1 on straight up picks in Week 2.  That puts Red at a respectable 8-4 for the season.  Red also made some decent calls on the betting line.

Eagles/Chiefs over – paid $

Seahawks/Niners under – paid $

Broncos +3 – paid $

Falcons/Packers over – paid $

Broncos/Cowboys under – bust

Chargers/Dolphins over – bust

Ka-ching!

Answer to last week’s trivia question:  Warren Moon was inducted into the Canadian Football Hall of Fame in 2001 and the NFL Hall of Fame in 2006.  At the time of his retirement, Moon held combined CFl/NFL records for most pass attempts, pass completions, passing yards, and touchdowns, all of which have since been broken.

This week’s trivia question:

Which player had the longest scoring run from scrimmage in NFL history?

Your Longest Yard Pick of the Week – Raiders over OTNAs.  Red hasn’t finalized his season ending picks yet – which is kind of cheating – okay really cheating, but the Raiders in their current form and playing in a dilapidated POS of a stadium  are looking more and more like a team that could possibly, if they stay healthy, on a good weather day and with all the breaks going in their favor, actually beat the hated evil empire of the defending NFL Champion Patriots.  How’s that for a Conradesque sentence?  The Raiders offense (con El Beast) is trending towards unstoppable at times.  Meanwhile the OTNAs are living down to doormat of the NFC East status.  Take the Raiders giving up somewhere between 7 and 34.   Oakland 45 Landover, MD 10

Your Pennsylvania Pick of the Week – Eagles over Giants.  The Eagles loss to the peaking to soon Chiefs may be a good thing in the long run.  They lost no ground on the Cowboys and actually were in this game until Carson Wentz gave away 7 points.  You can’t give the Chiefs anything right now.  Meanwhile the Giants are muddled mess searching for an offense and wondering what happened to their vaunted D.  Take the Eagles giving up 3.5.  Take it to the bank.  Philadelphia 21 New Jersey 13

Your Texas Pick of the Week – Patriots over Texans.  Does Red really have to explain this pick?  Pats lead all-time series 8-1 (including playoff buttwhippings in 2012 and 2016 seasons).  Texans have never been close in a game played at Foxboro.  The closest they have come to winning a meaningful game against the Pats was in 2003 when they took them to OT in a sloppy game on a Sunday night in November.  The only victory in the series was the season-ender in 2009 when they eked out a win over a Pats team that had nothing to play for and Texans were fighting for their first winning season ever.  Tom Brady v. DeShaun Watson, Bellicheat v. Bill O’ the Clown.  Dynasty v. Definition of Mediocrity.  Maybe the Texans will surprise by keeping it close – a moral victory this early in the season.  Red likes the under at 43.5.  Texans are getting 13.5 which might look nice, but don’t be a sucker. New England  24 Houston 10.

Your Running Out of Bounds Pick of the Week – Browns over Colts.  The first Shit Bowl of the year.  And a particularly huge stinking turd of a game this will be – except for the fact that Browns fans will get to celebrate the first of a few hard fought wins this week.  If your are unfortunate enough to live in an area that will be broadcasting this game, please fasten your seat belts and put your tray tables in an upright position before settling in to watch this Boring Bowel Battle.  Cleveland (+2.5) is a favorite on the road for the first time in 3 years.  Which tells you two things: (1) if that somehow interests you and you are even thinking you might be somehow inclined to bet on this game, you my friend have a serious problem; and (2) the Colts have hit bottom and are still digging.  Cleveland 17 Indianapolis 9.

Your Heisman Trophy Pick of the Week –  Titans over Seahawks.   Mr. M. Mariota seemed to find the formula last week against a pretty good Jaguars defense.  Seahawks defense is probably better – but not that much better and Seahawks offense looks particularly inept right now – which is something of an insult to the inept.  Titans have a nice rushing duo with Henry and Murray and an efficient passing game.  They will win a lot of games the old-fashioned way –  with ball control and defense.    The under looks pretty tempting at 43, but Red says so with some trepidation as he can resist anything but temptation.   Tennessee 20 Seattle 10.

Your Rookie of the Year Pick of the Week –  Jaguars over Ravens.  The Jaguars travel to their home away from home at Wembley in London (future home of the London Lords in 2025 Red predicts) for the Sunday breakfast taco game at La Casa Rojo this week.   The Jags are actually 2-2 in England since the NFL began forcing them to play one home game a year “across the pond.”  And they have won the last two such “matches.”  They have a reasonably favorable draw in a beat-up Ravens team that can’t protect Flacco Joe and that will have to rely on Javorious Allen and some other guys for offensive punch. Meanwhile, potential ROY Leonard Fournette has one of his better games.  Red likes the Jags getting 4.5 right now.  Jacksonville 24 Baltimore 17.

 

Red’s NFL Picks – Week Two

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Red was 3-3 in Week One.

This week’s trivia question:  Who is the only player to inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio and the Canadian Football League Hall of Fame?

Your War and Peace Pick of the Week – Chiefs over Eagles.   Chiefs come off of long break high on the real thing – beating NFL Champs.  Chiefs look to have two incredible playmakers in Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill.  Throw in a top tier TE in Travis Kelce and maybe Alex Smith finally realizes his first overall pick potential.  Losing Eric Berry at Safety is a big hit, but the Chiefs  offense can win a lot of high scoring games.  Look for Chiefs to outscore everyone this season.  Eagles offense is no slouch either, but can’t keep up this week.  Take the over at whatever.  Kansas City 40 Philadelphia 35

Your Northwest Pick of the Week  – Seahawks over 49ers.  Seahawks are ashamed of  giant smelly turd they dropped in Wisconsin last week.  49ers are weeks away from being competitive – especially on hostile turf in the far Northwest.  Nonetheless, Seahawks offense looks inept and struggles to overcome itself but pulls away in the end.  Turd less smelly this week.  Red likes the under at 43.  Seattle 20 Santa Clara 9

Your Texas Pick of the Week  – Broncos over Cowboys.  Cowboys offense was efficient in moving ball but inefficient in scoring against a good Giants defense.  Will it fare better against a better Broncos defense? Probably not.  Broncos offense is no great shakes either.  This looks like tough defensive battle with first team to break 14 points winning.  Which means it will be a high-scoring affair.  Or not.  Or maybe.  Or not.  Make up your mind Red.  Not.  Take either the Broncos +3 or the under at 43.  Denver 15 Arlington 13.

Your Moon over Miami Pick of the Week –  Chargers get favorable draw with Dolphins attempting to overcome Reverse Triple Time Zone Hex, Tropical/Mediterranean Climate Shift Humidity and Hurricane Hangover Factor after having their city ripped up.  Will they win one for the displaced fans back home?  It didn’t work for Houston.  It won’t be enough for Dolphins either.  P. Rivers still capable of putting up awe inspiring numbers in any given week.  This is that week.  Chargers almost cover the over at 44 by their lonesome.  Los Angeles Chargers 43 Miami 21.

Your Run and Boot Pick of the Week –  Titans over Jaguars.  Jaguars are just excited to not completely suck anymore.  Of course, beating the Texans may not be much of a measure of absolute suckitude or lack thereof. Titans are disappointed after being pushed around by Raiders. With a good offensive line, Fournette looks capable of keeping Jags in a lot of games, but the loss of go-to wideout Robinson really hurts.  Titans will bounce back big time this week. Stay away from this one.   Tennessee 35 Jacksonville 20

Your Big Collapse Pick of the Week – Falcons over Packers.   This is Red’s NFL Game of the Week.  Neither team looked great last week with both teams winning by one score. The Falcons struggled on the road against the lowly Bears and the Packers were just efficient enough to dispatch the sinking Seahawks.  This will feature a match-up of what are likely to be the top two quarterbacks at season end.  And neither team has much of a defense to speak of.  The bookies think so as well with a big ass O/U line at 53.5.  Red likes over here.  Red also likes plain yogurt.  Atlanta 31 Green Bay 27. 

Just for grins if you are looking for a huge parlay, this weekend presents a rare opportunity for the intrepid bettor with multiple teams attempting to overcome the Reverse Triple Time Zone Hex.  Dolphins at Chargers, Jets at Raiders and OTNA’s at Rams all are looking at long plane rides home.

And again, Red is steering clear of the train wreck that is the Texans right now.  Although, Red kind of wishes he could have been there for the beginning of the end of the Bill O’ the Clown era of Texans football.  Pulling your starting quarterback in the first game of the season is a bush league move.  Bill O’ is a bush league kind of guy – having done that in 2 out of the last 3 seasons.

Red’s NFL Picks – AFC South

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The AFC South (once the division of excellence) is out of the woods this season and will not be the pathetic excuse for a professional football division that it has been for the last few years – despite the presence of the Jaguars.

Titans  Marcus Mariota is the best quarterback in this division. Sorry Andrew, Tom and whomever is starting for the Jaguars.  DeMarco Murray is the best running back in this division.  Titans have the best offensive line in this division.  Delanie Walker (decidedly a late bloomer) may be the best tight end in this division.  The wider receivers – eh!  But you can’t have it all.  The defense is just good enough to keep the Titans close in a lot of games.  If the ball bounces the Titans’ way this season, then they just might post the best record in the NFL.  Everyone will know after week 3 if the Titans are for real. If the Titans beat the Raiders in the opener and the Seahawks two weeks later (both home games), the buzz will be incredible as they roll into Houston on week 4.  Red can hear the bees humming now.  After dispatching the Texans, the schedule gets much easier with only three potential playoff teams (Stealers, Cardinals and Texans) on the schedule.   Titans stun the league with a 13-3 record and stroll to AFC South title.

Texans  The Texans have a great defense.  Not 84 Bears great, but possibly top twenty all time great if they force 30+ turnovers and have 50+ sacks this season.  And contrary to the public perception, it’s not all JJ Watt.  Red is suffering from a bit of JJW fatigue as heretical as that may sound.  Clowney and Whitney Mercilus (Red’s favorite) are the keys this year.  They both had tremendous seasons last year playing mostly without JJW.  Imagine what they can do when an offensive line has to focus on the big Wisconsinite as well.  The linebacking crew is solid enough and the secondary will miss Bouye but is good enough to hold coverage long enough to force opposing quarterbacks to make bad decisions.  But then there is the other side of the ball.  If the Texans can muster even a mediocre offense, they will be in a lot of games.  Red fears mediocrity may be an unreachable goal with either Savage or rookie DeShaun Watson under center and slim pickings at wideout.  Rookie D’Onta Foreman may be a force if not injured and Fiedorowizc may be moving up to elite TE status.   But may Red just say, he hopes Watson does not see serious action until late in the season.  In fact, Red will predict right now that DW will not take over until the mid-way in the Rams game in Week 10 with the 4-4 Texans trailing the Rams with the season on the line.  If Watson can right the ship at that point, the Texans have a chance to sneak into the playoffs.  But somewhere along the way, they are going to have to beat a good team.  Best chances will be at home against the Stealers or Cardinals.  Texans are 9-7 and slip under the door as the last wildcard team.

Jaguars  Can Tom Coughlin resuscitate the long dormant Jaguars? It seems like ancient history now, but when Coughlin was at the helm at the dawn of the franchise, the Jaguars surprised the football world by playing in the AFC championship game in their second season.  He made the playoffs the next 3 seasons as well – again playing for and losing the AFC title in season 5.  Since then, 3 winning seasons and no playoff victories.  By comparison, the Texans are entering their 16th season and have yet to make it past the second round of the playoffs in their 4 playoff appearances and a current 9 year playoff drought.  Coughlin has tidied up if not cleaned house with 5 new assistant coaches, multiple free agent acquisitions on defense and picking up LSU back Leonard Fournette with the 4th pick of the draft.  But under center is still Blake Bortles.  Red bet big on BB last season and doesn’t really want to talk about it. In his 4th season, BB had better show signs of life or accept his fate as a back-up quarterback.  The Jags are mediocre at best.  But after a 3-13 campaign in 2016, mere mediocrity may be viewed as a triumph.  Jacksonville goes 8-8.

Colts  Who are the Colts anymore anyway?  Red has no clue with the multiple roster changes since last season..  Unfortunately for the Colts neither does head coach Chuck Pagano who has seemed in over his head at times during back to back 8-8 seasons in a division that the Colts used rule like kings of old.  And speaking of old – there’s tired old Frank Gore who probably used up whatever was left in the tank last season when he became the first running back to rush for 1000 yards since John Riggins (OTNAs 1984).  Maybe the news gets any better on defense only because it really couldn’t get worse for the league’s 30th ranked defense.  A whole new linebacking corps led by Barkevious Mingo may help, but beyond Vontae Davis the secondary will likely remain porous.  The whole thing turns on the reappearance of Andrew Luck and that is not a good sign.  Luck at his best with a lot of fearsome weapons was not that good.  A more average Luck with little to work with could be plain awful.  But Luck is the Colts best chance to avoid ignominy this season. Maybe Punter Pat McAfee had it right.  After a nice 8 year career (including two Pro Bowl appearances) he hung up the cleats to try his had at stand-up comedy.  There will be laughs this season, but they’ll be laughing at the Colts not with them.  Indianapolis 2-14.

Red’s NFL Picks – Week One

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Red’s weekly six-pack of NFL picks features a weekly trivia question this year.  Reply with your answer and from the correct answer, Red will randomly choose a winner each week.  So here goes.  The weekly picks will provide some hints as to the correct answer.

Remember, Red picks the games straight up.  If you want to know his thoughts about betting the spread or over/under, you must read the fine print.

Which NFL coach holds the record for most career wins? 

Your Biggest Upset Pick of the Week – Giants over Cowboys

Nobody expects the Giants to win.  Nobody also expects the Spanish Inquisition.  The Giants two main weapons are a fearsome pass rush, an aging but wise quarterback  and a fanatical devotion to beating their hated division rival who gets all the fucking attention despite a near perfect track record of failure for over two decades while the Giants have actually been wining NFL Championships.  Red means the Giants three main weapons are . . .  Expect  a doozy on Sunday night.  A low scoring doozy but a doozy nonetheless.  The Cowboys are giving up 3.5 on the road which normally looks good, but this one is too close to put any serious money down.  New Jersey 19 Arlington 17

Your Ohio Pick of the Week – Bengals over Ravens

Having Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones suspended for this one might actually work in the Bengals favor.  They won’t be in the game to commit stupid penalties and turn victory into defeat.   Look for Joe Mixon to get some early action when the Bengals finally realize Jeremy Hill is not a starting RB.  Also look for Gio Bernard to be used correctly as a third-down back.  And finally look for Flacco Joe on his ass.  Red thinks the over/under at 43 is right on the money – but not Red’s money.  Cincinnati 24 Baltimore 20. 

Your Youngest NFL Head Coach Pick of the Week –  Rams over Colts

This one is just for fun.  Rams are getting better. Colts are getting  worse.  Luck is out.  Goff doesn’t suck quite as much behind better offensive line. The under at 47 looks very tempting, but only insane chimpanzee breeders and lapsed Zoroastrians with Mommy complexes would bet on this one.    Los Angeles 14 Indianapolis 10.

Your Superb Owl Champion Pick of the Week – Chiefs over Patriots

Pats celebrate amazing victory in SB 51.  A little too much hangover when Chiefs get down to business and eke out win over gloating champs.  Chiefs are loaded with offensive talent and defense takes care of enough business to win this one.  A rule with no exceptions – never bet on the Thursday night NFL opener – too many weird things happen in these games.  Kansas City 27 New England 21

Your East Coast  Teams Pick of the Week – Eagles over OTNAs

Another team fairly loaded with offensive talent.  Um, that would be the Eagles if Carson Wentz is in fact the real deal, the bees knees, the Truth, the Way and the One – or even if he is pretty good.  LaGarrette Blount (aka Fat Pig) bulls his way to a couple of early touchdowns.  Kirk Cousins misses offensive guru. Red likes the under at 47.5 in this one.   Philadelphia 35 Landover, MD 10

Your Multi-Generational Coaching  Family Pick of the Week –  49ers over Panthers

First time head coach Kyle Shanahan pulls out all stops to get upset victory in first game.  Unfortunately for the Niners it might be the highlight of the season as they are unlikely to beat another decent team this year.  Panthers are still in funk from down 2016 season.  Cam Newton is not back in form yet.  That will come later.  Red likes the Niners to cover the 6 point spread and possibly eke out a close win.  Santa Clara 21 Carolina 20

Although he usually includes the Texans in the weekly six-pack, Red is leaving them alone this week.

Red’s NFL Picks – NFC North

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The division Red hates most of all.

Vikings.  What a start to last season with the Vikings coming out of the gate 5-0.  Then cold hard reality (like a Minnesota winter) set in and the team went 3-8 to finish the season.  But for the fast start an even season would have looked pretty good after losing Teddy Bridgewater to what may still prove to be a career-ending injury.  With Sam Bradford at the helm and little help from the running backs, the Vikings probably did about as well as could be expected.  Adding Latavius Murray and rookie Dalvin Cook will give SB some more tools and there have been improvement on the O-line, but this season will turn on the defense.  Mark Zimmer had the unit humming last year – ranking 3rd in yards allowed and 6th in points allowed.  They start the same basic unit this season with only Captain Munnerlyn and Chad Greenway gone.  Just a little better play from up and coming players like Danielle Hunter, Tres Waynes and Eric Kendricks could make this the second or third best defense in the league.  More turnovers and they are there.  Red likes the Vikings chances in an overall down year for this divisions.  Minnesota blows no one away but manages a title with a 11-5 record.

Packers.  Packers needed six consecutive wins to end the season after a mealy 4-6 to claim the NFC North last season. But guess what – they still have Aaron Rodgers and a talented crew around him.  That is, except for at tailback where the untested Ty Montgomery is stepping in. Opening with Seattle will be a reasonable test of the Pack and could set the tone for the first half of the season.   But it doesn’t get any easier for the Packers as they also face the Falcons, Bengals, Cowboys, Vikings and possibly dangerous Saints before a favorable Week 8 bye.  Expect a 4-3 record at the break. After that it is a bit easier.  Packers are 10-6 and in as the Wildcard.

Lions.  Matt Stafford is now the highest paid player in the history of the NFL?  Does that make any kind of sense – even nonsense?  No.  Even with the HPPITHOTNFL, the Lions were drubbed in the playoffs by Seattle. This year no one gets the chance to drub the Lions in the playoffs.  Detroit is an 9-7 team at best and while that got them a playoff beating last year – it won’t be good enough in 2017.

Bears.  Red swears the Bears will not switch gears and stay in arrears (in wins) this year, so hear this,  steer clear (if you hold your cash dear) of ever betting on the Bears – except to lose – Red fears.  Sorry.  Chicago 3-13.

Red’s NFL Picks – AFC East

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Ah, the NFC East – also known as the “uncontested lay-up” division for all pundits.

Patriots. As long time readers know (and Red hopes they are both awake and not hungover this morning), this is where Red always writes that it is “cowardly and spineless to pick the Patriots year after year” and then confirms his cowardice and utter lack of vertebral support by picking the Patriots anyway. In fairness to Red, look at the rest of this division – details to follow below.   Red has finally come to terms with the fact that Brady and Bellicheat long ago made a pact with the Dark Lord and while their souls may be damned for all eternity at least they will both end up in the Hall of Fame. Realistically, Red thinks this may be the season where Tom Brady finally looks tired and old and Bellicheat gets his playbook stolen by Russian hackers.  That coupled with a brutal stretch after the Week 9 bye; from November 12 to December 17 the Pats play 5 of 6 games on the road against real competition (Broncos, Raiders, Dolphins and Stealers).  Oh, for crying out loud. Quit kidding yourself Red, you know you have no balls when it comes to this division.  Save your foolishness for the NFC West. Who on the schedule can beat the Pats even on a bad day?  Maybe the Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Falcons and Stealers? Certainly not the Texans as long as Tom Brady is in the house.   New England breezes to another divisional crown with a 12-4 record.  Red really hates himself today.

Bills.  The Bills have not made the playoffs in 17 years – the longest active post-season drought in the NFL (yes – worse than Cleveland even).  Red sees no reason that streak ends anytime soon.  Yes, the inevitably flawed “Rex Ryan as a head coach” experiment ended up with broken glass on the floor and poisonous gasses filling the laboratory/locker room.  Trump supporter Ryan failed in his promise to make Bills’ fans “tired of winning.”  New coach Sean McDermott will at least not be flaunting absurd predictions  of success.  Rather, the Bills seem to be building an offense suited to the limited repertoire of QB Tyrod Taylor.  Coordinator Rick Dennison is implementing a version of the vaunted “West Coast Offense” with short routes mixed with long bombs and quick decisions.   If Sammy Watkins can stay on the field, he leads a corps of competent wideouts.  And then there is the redoubtable LeSean McCoy.  Red isn’t about to guess what to make of his 2017 season.  On the defensive side, out is the Ryan family’s complicated 3-4 scheme and back in with a traditional 4-3.  The Bills seem headed in the right direction after years of aimless wandering, but that probably only translates to a less than awful season.  Orchard Park is reasonably happy with an 8-8 campaign.

Dolphins.  The Dolphins at least went 10-6 and made the playoffs last year. But against the Pats, they were behind 31-3 in week 3 before rallying to lose by only 7 and then were blown out 35-14 in week 17.  In the playoffs the Stealers pushed them aside like a Latvian President and that was it for the aquatic mammals.  The Dolphins cupboard is not bare with up and coming talent like Jay Ajayi and others.  But when your season depends on Jay Cutler . . .  [insert bad thing happening here].  Miami regresses to 7-9.

Jets. The Jets have been a reality TV show for the last several seasons – and a really bad reality TV show at that.  Of course, when the White House is pretty much a reality TV show, maybe Red is on the wrong side of this issue.  Probably not, but Red is an open-minded sort of guy.  But the Jets! What is going on with this franchise? When Red went to the Jets  official website – they did not have a depth chart posted!  Maybe when your choices for starting quarterback include the appropriately named Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty it’s just as well to keep everyone in the dark.  What is going on is a massive roster dump to get the first draft pick next season – thought to be USC quarterback Sam Darnold. Every season Red’s fondest wish is for a 6-10 team to make the playoffs.  His runner-up wish is for a team to go winless.  The Jets love Red this season –  0-16 Baby!

Red’s NFL Predictions – NFC West

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Many are calling this the “easiest division in the NFL” which was certainly a fair characterization  last season. Red sees some teams up, one team down and a tougher level of competition that in recent seasons.

Cardinals. After a disappointing 2016 campaign, the Cards are looking to rebound with a quick start to 2017. The Cards started last season 1-3 and unlike the Stealers never found Recovery Road.  Red is leading with his heart rather than his head on this one.  He went all in for David Johnson in a couple of fantasy leagues and also got stuck with tired old Carson Palmer at QB.  The Cards defense remains solid.  The question is whether the team can win a bunch of ugly 17-13 or the like games.  They can and they do. Arizona sashays to 11-5 record and a sweet playoff berth.

Seahawks.  A popular pick to win the west, many think the Seahawks will dominate the NFL’s “easiest division.”  But other than playing the weaklings (see below) in their division, the Hawks have fairly tough sledding ahead with road games against the Packers, Titans and Cowboys and home games against the Texans, Colts, Eagles and Falcons.  The Hawks could lose all of those games despite the double and triple time zone hex.  Pete the Cheat has had his share of good fortune up to now; maybe this season the worm turns. Seattle struggles to 9-7 and takes a seat for the playoffs.

Rams. Playing in the oldest stadium in the NFL but with the youngest head coach in NFL history in Sean McVay, the Rams will maintain the Jeff Fischer tradition of abject mediocrity.  Actually that’s somewhat of an insult to mediocrity as Fischer was unable to ever post a winning record in his 5 years with the Rams.  Second year QB Jared Goff was the major disappointment of 2016 going 0-7 in his starts and making journeyman Case Keenum look scintillating by comparison.  But in fairness to Goff he was playing behind a makeshift offensive line and with little help from any wideout other than Kenny Britt.  2017 looks better all around.  Tavon Austin looks like the third down back every team wishes it had and Todd Gurley is at least competent and will likely average more than the pathetic 3.2 yards per rush he managed last year. Expect more than 23 total touchdowns this season and for the Rams to not be the worst offense in the league.  Maybe only the third-worst. Los Angeles (for now) improves slightly to 6-10.

49ers.  The Chip Kelly as a professional football coach experiment seems to have come to an end.  The excitement CK was able to bring to Oregon never translated to the pros and Chip if you’re reading – it looks like UNLV might be in the market for some new leadership after losing to lowly Howard in “the biggest upset in college football history.”  A tip of the helmet to the Niners for giving Kyle Shanahan his first opportunity as a head coach. Unfortunately, KS could not bring Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman with him.  Instead he will have to make do with tired old Brian Hoyer and Pierre Garcon.  That’s like going from a Corvette to a Ford Escort, but Shanahan and the Niners will surprise a few folks.  This storied franchise has seen more hard times than good and with the exception of the Harbaugh era has been unable to find a steady hand for 15 years.  Remember Jim Tomsula or Mike Nolan?  Anyone, anyone? Hell, Red thought Mike Singletary was the answer.  Don’t expect miracles in season one, but the Niners are coming back – they’re just coming from way back. Santa Clara goes 6-10.

Red’s NFL Picks – AFC North

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Red has a distinct fondness for this division.  Not because it is easy to pick (even though it only has 3 teams – take that Browns fans).  But because it is challenging. Every season one team really outperforms expectations and mystifies the pundits – Red included.  So here goes nothing.

Stealers. Many long years ago, Red went to see a late-season game between the Oilers and Stealers in the last days of the Astrodome. He chatted up a few Stealers fans before the game – one of whom told him that it was cheaper for him and his son to fly to Houston, spend the night at a reasonable hotel and buy tickets for the game than it would be to get two ticket to a Stealers home game.  With fans like that name Red one good reason why the AFC Championship game should not be a rematch of last year when the Patriots steamrolled the Stealers 36-17 in a game that wasn’t even that close. Of course, losing Le’Veon Bell early on and having some dude named Chris Hogan be the hero with 2 TDs and 180 yards doesn’t help your cause.  So why pick the Stealers? It’s a good question.  Will this be the year that Bell actually suits up for 16 games?  He is playing on the franchise tag, so he has a lot to prove for a big payday.  Can Big Ben hold his battered, bruised and frequently broken body together for one more season of greatness?  Can a Stealers defense that was nothing short of awful against the Pats snap back? Will the Stealers avoid last season’s horrific start? Will dead Dan Rooney (ensconced in the luxurious NFL wing of St. Peter’s Estates) be taunting the emaciated ghost of Al Davis as he walks the netherworld searching for another Superb Owl ring for all eternity?  Lots of questions?  Red has no real answers, except that with a relatively easy first 5 games, the Stealers should not have to count on a 7 game winning streak to secure a playoff spot like they did in 2016.  And to give you one good reason the Stealers might not be in the AFC Championship game.  They’re called the Oakland Raiders (somewhere Al Davis lets loose a croaky “Just Win Baby”).   Pittsburgh goes 10-6 and wins the North nonetheless.

Ravens. Flacco Joe’s deal with Satan must have timed out.  After all, the first 5 seasons of FJ’s NFL career are basically unmatched by any other quarterback.  Flacco Joe led his team to 5 straight playoff appearances culminating in the Ravens second NFL title in 2012.  He was the first rookie quarterback to win 2 playoff games.  He had the most wins by a quarterback in his first 6 and 7 seasons. He was the first NFL quarterback to win a playoff game in each of his first 5 seasons.  But since 2012, there has been one playoff win (albeit against a good Stealers team in 2014) and lots of disappointment on the Chesapeake.  So it was good while it lasted for FJ, but Red thinks he needs a change of scenery.  Perhaps the Argonauts are in the market for a tall, strong-armed, washed-up quarterback.  Ravens do have some positives.  The combination of Maclin and Perriman at wideout will keep defenses wondering.  Meanwhile, the Ravens defense is a palimpsest of the former playbook  and they are searching for a running game.   Ravens will have to score lots of points to win this season.  They do have longfoot Justin Tucker and his ability to hit from range will keep them in a few games – just not enough games.  Baltimore is 8-8 and sitting at home in January.  

Bengals. Last year Red wrote, “So it’s pretty much make or break time for this current iteration of the Bengals.” Well, “break” it was as the season was pretty damn miserable for the Bengals.  They finally figured out that Jeremy Hill sucks and that Gio Bernard is a “specialty back” and that. yep losing Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu does make a difference.  So they are going young on offense this year with wideouts John Ross and Josh Malone.  And to meet their NFL minimum  requirement of at least one girl-beater per team, they drafted Joe Mixon from OU. The big problem for the Bengals is up front.  They lost all-world left tackle Andrew Whitworth to the Rams and are expecting unproven backups to take up the slack.  As for Red’s favorite distant relation “Red Rifle” Dalton – it looks more and more like one of those wasted careers as far as playoff success goes.  He can cry on LaDanian Tomlinson’s HOF shoulder about that one.  The good news for Bengals fans (and Red) is that this won’t be the year when the Bengals ignominiously lose their 9th playoff game in a row – because they won’t have a chance.  Cincinnati goes 7-9.

Browns. Does Red really have to say anything here?  He thought not, but here goes anyway.  Red gives the Browns credit for trying to build a team in the old-fashioned way with major upgrades to both lines with additions of JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler on O line and first round pick Myles Garret and rookie Larry Ogunjobi on the D line.  Browns might actually win a division game with Bengals and Ravens trending down.  Jets, Jaguars, Chargers and Bears are other chances to win.   Browns improve, Brock Osweiler doesn’t completely suck – mostly because he is on the bench, but no one notices.  Cleveland swaggers to 6-10.

Red’s NFL Picks – AFC West

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The Wild Wild West.  A dangerous place for the pundit.

Raiders. Raiders would have almost certainly been playing in the second round of the playoffs if not for losing first and second string quarterbacks and suffering a season-ending loss to the Broncos that cost them a division title and home field advantage.  The only team in recent memory to win a playoff game with a third stringer under center was the Texans in 2011 with T.J. Yeates.  But they beat the Bengals so it almost doesn’t count.  And nothing against Connor Cook, but when your QB is 18 of 45 with 3 INTs and rating of 30.0, it’s going to be a long plane flight back to California.  With even an average Derek Carr day, the Raiders had a decent shot at beating a Texans team with Brock Osweiler at the helm.  So Carr (brother of David – who, by the way, still sucks) and most of the offensive weaponry is still intact.  And they now have “The Beast”. With that addition, Latavius Murray might become the league’s best third down back and catch about 60 passes when it really counts. The Raiders defense is the weak link here – which is a surprise on a Jack Del Rio coached team. The Raiders end their championship drought when they clinch the title in the last game  against the Chargers.  The emaciated ghost of Al Davis croaks “Just win Baby” as the champagne pours.  But sadly, Walking Dead Al continues to roam the soon-to-be abandoned corridors of Oakland Coliseum hoping for an Uber ride to Vegas for all eternity.  Oakland takes home the silver and black cake with an 11-5 record.

Chiefs. It’s hard to bet against the Chiefs.  Red thinks they got the steal of the draft in Patrick Mahomes.  He looks like the real thing and may be starting by November.  Of course he will have to find someone other than Travis Kelce to throw to.  And C.J. Spiller and the running back committee will have to take charge at times.  A lot rides on the Thursday night opener in Foxboro.  If they knock off the champions, then the Chiefs may swoop in on their war ponies and beat enough of the weaklings and mediocrities on the schedule to grab a wildcard spot.  A humiliating loss could send the team into a tail spin.  Red likes the Chiefs chances.  Kansas City grabs the last AFC Wildcard spot with 9-7 record.

Broncos. New head coach Vance Joseph is going to be a winner.  But sorry Vance, probably not this season.  Yes the Broncos defense will keep them in a lot of games.  But this may be a year that Red’s Rule (score 13 points and beat the Cowboys) takes a road trip to Colorado.  Neither Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch is going to drag this offense over the goal line anywhere near enough times for the Broncos to have a shot at playing in January.  Having the injury prone Jamaal Charles and C.J. Anderson as your best options in the backfield is not encouraging.  Denver stumbles out of the gate and are lucky to finish 8-8.

Chargers. Red has always like this franchise.  Everyone in Southern California seemed so happy at the games sitting half-naked in the warm sunshine of Jack Murphy Stadium. The fans were in fact beautiful and so was the way the Chargers played the game. The offense was exhilirating and the high scoring games were entertaining.  Having Red’s favorite LT for a decade helped cement his love for this franchise.  But that love has been a one-way street.  Red has repeatedly picked the Chargers and they have rewarded him with disdain.  So the best thing Red could do for the Charges is shit all over their prospects for this season.  That he will gladly do.  Charges are woeful in their new home.  Just how stupid do you have to be leave San Diego?  You’ll go  4-12 and like it.

 

Red’s NFL Picks – NFC South

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Surprisingly, the NFC South (unlike almost every other division) is actually comprised of teams entirely from the South.  More fun facts to follow.

Falcons. You know how many times Red has picked the Falcons before giving up on them last season. That’s right – a whole shitload. And how did that work out?  And then last season Red finally wakes up picks the Panthers – who decide to suck while the Falcons finally wake up – at least until the second half of the Superb Owl. Take heart Falcons fans, Red can failure pain.  And despite their pathetic performance in Houston, Red is biting on the Falcons. It may be a collapse of judgment to pick this team to win the NFC South, but this fall apart from some questions about a Superb Owl hangover, the Falcons look solid. Choking the list of positives, they have Matty Ice and the same basic offensive crew around him.  Expect lots of bombs and dive plays.  There may be a few questions – suck gas what happens without offensive wiz Kyle Shanahan? And is crack-up quarterback Matt Schaub capable of tanking over if needed? What will their record be?  10-6 or 11-5? Just flop a coin and don’t sink about it too much.   Really, Falcons fans you should stop gripping, just say “Tanks” for a memorable season last year and hope for the bust in 2017.  Atlanta strolls to an 11-5 record.

Buccaneers. The Buccaneers have a decent shot at a Wild Card spot. Their 5 game win streak to close the season almost almost landed them in the playoffs where nobody wanted to face them. They look to have two elite talents in Jameis Winston and Mike Evans. Doug Martin remains a question mark – he is either great or injured with little room in between. Jaquizz Rodgers needs to take over as the Number 1 back. Adding DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard makes this a formidable offensive unit.  On defense, Kwon Alexander put up Defensive ROY numbers in 2015 and improved last season and the rest of the defense looks good enough to win a lot of games.  The Bucs have had trouble finishing off close ones.  Dumping erratic kicker Roberto Aguayo and bringing in Nick Folk may help in that area.  Look for the Tampa Bay to go 10-6 and make it to Wildcard Weekend.

Panthers.  Panthers are a sexy pick to with the NFC South despite their first to worst performance in 2016. Losing six games by 3 points or less will get a bad record. Red thinks the Panthers are sadly headed in the wrong direction as evidenced by the firing of GM Dave Gettleman in July.  Rivera’s job is on the line this season and his best work is not done under pressure.  They do have an easy loser’s schedule and will not be playing with a makeshift O line as in 2016. But lack of a real running game will limit Cam’s options.  CN does improve his woeful 52% completion rate last season, but it would be hard not to.  On the other side the additions of Julius Peppers and Captain Munnerlyn (perhaps Red’s favorite name in all of the NFL) will bolster a defense that distinctly underperformed last year.  Still it is a difficult climb back to the excellence of 2015.  The Panthers make it back a ways, but not a long ways.  Carolina fans can expect an 8-8 record at best.

Saints.  The Saints’ window of opportunity has closed. Not that it was all that wide open anyway with three consecutive 7-9 seasons.  Adding boy-beater Adrian Peterson might help, but probably doesn’t offset losing rising star wideout Brandin Cooks.  Last year Drew Brees refused to look tired and old. The ageless wonder completed  a league-leading 471 of his league-leading 673 attempts for 70% completion rate (who in God’s name completed more than 70% of their passes last season?) for a  league-leading 5208 yards (are you getting the drift here?) and 37 touchdowns!  Imagine what that could have done for a team like say – the hapless Texans.  Even though DB should be tired and old in his by-God 17th NFL season, he again refuses to follow the script and that alone will carry this team a long ways – just not long enough.  Saints cannot score enough points to make up for sadly sagging defense.  New Orleans slumps to 6-10.

Answer:  Sam Bradford completed 71.4% and Matt Ryan completed 70.1% of their attempts to edge out Brees.