Category Archives: Red’s NFL Picks

Red’s NFL Picks – NFC East

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Some call this the highest profile division in the entire NFL. It’s hard to argue with geography and tradition. When you have teams from the big cities in the Amtrak corridor (Giants, Eagles and OTNAs), and the hated and loved (but seldom indifferent to) Cowboys, not to mention three teams that have won multiple NFL Championships – then yes a lot of people are watching what happens here.  And maybe more than any other division, the NFC East in recent years has been up for grabs like a Matt Schaub floater in the slot.  No team has repeated as division champion since the Eagles in 2004.  And since 2011, every team has won at least one division title with the Cowboys and OTNAs each grabbing a pair. Unlike the AFC East, this is a tough call

Eagles have done more than any other team to boost their offense at the skill position with Torrey Smith, Alshon Jeffery, Donnel Pumphrey, and LaGarrette Blount (aka the Fat Pig). The Fat Pig will function as the anti-Darren Sproles. Trading Jordan Matthews is a serious and unexpected blow, but the defense needed help. Most analysts think the Eagles are a year away.  Red thinks that the Carson Wentz workshop will be cranking out a bunch of touchdowns with his new tools and a solid O line.  Eagles score early and often.  The addition of Derek Barnett may give the Eagles the best pass rush in the NFL.  Red predicts Bosa, Barnett, Graham and Cox may combine to break the NFL team sack record in 2017.  And just so you don’t have to look it up that would be the Bears 72 sacks in 1984.  A relatively easy early schedule (at least compared to the division rivals) has the Eagles at 6-2 at halftime and with some breathing room.  It gets tougher and the season-ending matchup at home against the Cowboys will be loser goes home.  Eagles don’t lose.  Philadelphia wins division with a hard fought 10-6 record.

Cowboys.  Smart money is on the Cowboys with 2016 ROY Dak Prescott and suspended girl-beater Ezekiel Elliott returning from unbelievable stellar rookie seasons. If all that JerryWorld had to worry about was a sophomore slump from those two, then the Cowboys would be an easy pick.  But hold on Hoss.  Forty percent of the best O-line in football is gone with the unexpected retirement of excellent RT Doug Free and coveted LG Ronald Leary heading to the Broncos. They are not easy to replace and a unit that played together for several seasons is not readily replicated.  Add to that, the near complete fruit basket turnover in the Cowboys secondary with CBs Claiborne and Carr and Safeties Chuch and Wilcox being shown the door.  That leaves Byron Jones as the only remaining starter.  Unless the pass rush is much better than anticipated, expect to see the secondary getting burned early and often by the excellent wide receivers in this division.  And don’t forget the tougher champions schedule.  The only potential nothing-burgers on the schedule are the Rams and 49ers.  Every other team can beat the Cowboys.  Red sees Arlington making it to  9-7 at best.

Giants will have the best defense in the NFL this season. The line has been solid and the secondary took a big step forward with addition of Janoris Jenkins.  The big question for the Giants is the offense.  Young Manning is now 36 and coming off his worst season in years.  Maybe adding Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram helps, but unless the Giants can run the ball, look out for trouble.  As with the Boys, the Giants have a tough schedule.  The Week 2 matchup with the Cowboys could be critical since they will likely be coming off a loss to the Patriots in Week 1.  Realistically, New Jersey comes in as 8-8 material, but they could grab second with the Elliott suspension looming.

OTNAs (that’s Offensive Term for Native Americans for the new readers) will blow.  Disarray carries the day.  Landover, Md. will be lucky to see 6-10.

 

Red’s 2017 NFL Predictions – the Annual Bitch Portion Thereof

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Well it’s time for Red’s Annual Bitch about the favorable TV treatment afforded the Hated Arlington Cowboys franchise.  Hang on to your Stetsons.

 If for some unfathomable reason you are a Cowboys fan, most Sundays you can sleep late, linger over brunch, get in 18 holes, have an under-the-covers nap (aka siesta tradicional) and still be back in the recliner with nachos in hand in time for kickoff. It’s even better this season than usual for all you HAC fans.  All Red can say is – at least your team made the playoffs last season  and there is some slight justification for having a reasonable share of games on National TV – but nothing justifies this:

Week 1       Giants Sunday Night Game

Week 2       At Broncos Sunday Late Game

Week 3       At Cardinals Monday Night Game

Week 5       Packers Sunday Late Game

Week 7       At 49ers Sunday Late Game

Week 8       At Redskins Sunday Late Game

Week 9       Chiefs Sunday Late Game

Week 10     At Falcons Sunday Late Game

Week 11     Eagles Sunday Night Game

Week 12     Chargers Thanksgiving Late Game

Week 13     Redskins Thursday Night Game

Week 14     At Giants Sunday Late Game

Week 15     At Raiders Sunday Night Game

Week 16     Seahawks Sunday Late Game

So adding it all up, the Cowboys get:

3 Sunday Night games

8 Sunday Late Games with only 49ers and Broncos as time zone related

1 Monday Night Game

1 Thursday Night Game (mandatory)

And the traditional Thanksgiving game

For a grand total of 14 national TV appearances. That is well above the standard 11 national TV appearances that the league regularly doles out to America’s Team.

And if you are a fan of the hapless Texans (who have actually won more playoff games in the time of their miserable existence than the Cowboys have during that period) you had better plan ahead and expect that the games will totally mess up your Sunday afternoon plans.

Week 2       At Bengals Thursday Night Game

Week 5       Chiefs Sunday Night Game

Week 8       At Seahawks Sunday Late Game

Week 10     At Rams Sunday Late Game

Week 12     At Ravens Sunday Night Game

Week 16     Stealers Sunday Late Game

That’s 6 national TV appearances which is better than the usual schedule but only because of 2 west coast games against the Seahawks and Rams and the mandatory Thursday night game.

Red calls Bullshit.

 

Red’s 2017 NFL Picks – AFC East

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As long time readers know (and Red hopes they are both awake and not too terribly hung-over this morning), this part of the annual predictions is where Red always writes that it is “cowardly and spineless to pick the Patriots year after year” and then confirms his cowardice and utter lack of vertebral support by picking the Patriots anyway.

In fairness to Red, look at this division.

Patriots. Red has finally come to terms with the fact that Brady and Bellicheat long ago made a pact with the Dark Lord and while their souls may be damned for all eternity to the lake of fire at least they will both end up in the Hall of Fame – which may not be an altogether bad trade-off. Realistically, Red thinks this may be the season where Tom Brady finally looks tired and old and Bellicheat gets his playbook stolen by Russian hackers.  Quit kidding yourself Red, you know you have no balls when it comes to this division.  Save your foolishness for the NFC West. Who on the schedule can beat the Pats even on a bad hair day for Tom?  Maybe the Chiefs, Raiders, Falcons and Stealers?  “Maybe” being the operative word here.  New England breezes to a 13-3 record.  Red hates himself today.

Bills.  This team hasn’t made the playoffs in 17 years – the longest active post-season drought in the NFL (yes – worse than Cleveland even). Do they deserve a second look in 2017?  Anquan Boldin quit on them. Emphatically not! The misery continues in Orchard Park 6-10.

Dolphins. At least this team went 10-6 and with some help made the playoffs last year. But against the Pats, they were behind 31-3 in week 3 before rallying to lose by only 7 and then were blown out 35-14 in week 17.  In the playoffs the Stealers pushed them aside like a Latvian President and that was it for the Fish.  There is a void in the backfield. And to the rescue comes Jay Cutler? At least he has rising star Jay Ajayi to hand the ball to.   Red holds out some hope for the Dolphins in 2017.  He also still plays the lottery.  Miami 8-8.

Jets.  When you’re a Jet, you’re a Jet all the way, from your first losing bet, to your knees for to pray. When you’re a Jet, you lose the division.  The Jets have been a reality TV show for the last several seasons – and a really bad reality TV show at that.  What is going on with that franchise.  Go to their official website – they don’t even have a depth chart posted!  Maybe when your choices for starting quarterback are the appropriately named Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty it’s just as well to keep everyone in the dark. Jets 2-14.

Red’s 2017 NFL Picks

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Rather than swamp readers with the whole shebang of NFL picks in one post, this season Red will pick each division over the next week or so and then wrap up before the season starts with his post-season picks and award winners.  But first the bad news.

2016 Season Recap

Red’s NFC division champions were the Giants, Panthers, Cardinals and Vikings. Wild cards were the Buccaneers and Packers.  Of that motley crew only the Packers and Giants were playing in January.  2 out of 6 in the playoffs.  Ugh!

Red’s AFC division champions were the Patriots, Raiders, Jaguars (Ha!), and Bengals.  Wild cards were the Jets (spit take) and Broncos.  Patriots and Raiders came through for another 2 out of 6 in the playoffs. Barf!

Red’s 4 out of 12 is his worst season ever. That’s at least 10 Hail Marys, alms to the poor and giving up Diet Dr. Pepper for the season.

Red did pick Khalil Mack as Defensive Player of the Year – but how hard was that?

First up this season – the AFC East.

NFL Overtime Rules Written by Morons

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The Patriots may have deserved to win the Superb Owl yesterday, but we will never know because of the NFL’s bizarre and absurd overtime rules.  No other major sport has a true sudden death overtime.  The NBA plays 5 minute OT periods until someone wins.  Baseball plays full innings until someone wins.  The NHL does have sudden death but the game changes from offense to defense very quickly and possession is won in a face off.  It would be a very unusual circumstance for each team to not have possession of the puck in OT.  Soccer plays two 15 minute overtime periods followed by a shootout if needed.   It is absurd that after a full NFL season and the playoffs, that the championship can be so influenced by a coin toss.  Yes, the team winning the toss has to score a touchdown, but it is a ridiculous system that does not allow each team a shot on offense.  The college system has its flaws but at least has some elements of fairness.

Red’s NFL Picks – Superb Owl

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NFL Picks 2016 – Superb Owl

It’s very hard to imagine how big a deal the Superb Owl is until it comes to your town. Red happened to be in downtown Houston last Thursday night and walked over to Discovery Green.  DG is a wonderful little urban park on the east side of downtown across from the massive George R. Brown Convention Center.  For the Superb Owl, DG, the GRB and the surrounding area have been turned in ground zero for all things NFL and SB in particular.  At 9:30 on a Thursday night more than a week before the game, there were probably 75 workers hard at it.  Fox has built what appears to be a 10,000 sq. ft. temporary studio on the main lawn. There is a massive temporary café/bar, a full concert stage, a huge NASA display, light show in the pond and other attractions.  That doesn’t include the other four square blocks all tented up for music, food, conviviality and possibly lots of drinking.  Or the entire “NFL Experience” set up inside GRB.  There are also massive projections on nearby buildings and of course the mandatory barriers, metal detectors and road closings that accompany any such event nowadays.  Red estimates that somewhere between $15-25 million has been spent in this one area of downtown alone and maybe much more than that.  Who knows what is going on at NRG park – maybe just a game.

Red was a dismal 0-2 in the Conference Championship games. He was hoping against hope that the Stealers would show up and not terribly surprised when they did not. So, we have the Patriots in the SB again. Can we hear a vigorous “Ho Hum” from everybody?  Red thought so.

Red was taken aback, however, by the Packers pathetic performance. We knew the Falcons offense was fearsome, but what has made them a true contender for the Lombardi Trophy is the turnaround from the front 7 on defense.  That should have ultimately been expected with Dan Quinn in charge, but the arrival of a top caliber defense is ahead of schedule.

With apologies to Ray Magliozzi, Red has to say “Well, it’s happened again, you’ve wasted another perfectly good NFL season, reading Red’s bad NFL weekly picks.” Why stop now?

Your Last Pick of the Week – Falcons over Patriots

They used to say that defense and rushing wins championships.   They used to say that cheaters never win, too. Bill Bellicheat and Tom Brady put an end to such nonsense. Don’t misunderstand, the Pats have had respectable defenses and managed to turn stiffs like LaGarrette Blount (aka the Fat Pig), Antowain Smith and Stevan Ridley into reasonable facsimiles of real NFL running backs for brief periods of time.  Inter-column quiz:  Who is the Patriots all-time leading rusher?  Had to think didn’t you?  It’s Sam “Bam” Cunningham for Christ sakes – who was with the team for 9 seasons and gained all of 5453 yards.  He also had more career fumbles than touchdowns.  There is not a single running back in Patriots history headed for the Hall of Fame or even the Hall of Very Good.  The Hall of Mediocrity might accept one or two, but that’s it.  This season is no different.  BB has figured out that you really don’t need a superstar back if your offensive scheme is good enough.  Just plug in a horse that you use to exploit defensive weakness and go on about your business.

The Pats defense is another story. It was the best defense in the only category that matters – scoring.  The Pats allowed fewer points than any other team in the league and that kept them in a few games when the offense was not clicking – a very few.

But let’s look at who the Pats beat this season. They beat 3 playoff teams (if you include the Texans as a playoff team – a questionable proposition).  They beat the Stealers, Dolphins (twice) and the Texans.  Their two losses were to the Bills (sans Brady) and the Seahawks.  They also had very few close games – posting only four (4) one-score victories. Two of those were in the first two weeks of the season when they beat the Cards and Dolphins in close contests. The later beat the Jets and Ravens by one touchdown each.  Other than that, they either lost or pretty much blew out their opponents.  Defense was the key to cruising to victory most weeks.  Only the Cards, Dolphins, Bills, Seahawks and Ravens could score more than 20 points and only the Seahawks scored more than 30.

Meanwhile in Georgia, the Falcons offense was keyed by a successful running tandem all season. Freeman and Coleman were the best backfield all season.  Good for two guys who were mid round picks in 2014 and 2015.  That is not to say that the Falcons’ incredible passing attack should be overlooked.  It is simply incredible how Julio Jones and his posse can tear up opposing secondaries.  But the respect for the running game that opposing defenses must show, makes the passing attack all that much more fearsome.  How fearsome?  The Falcons failed to score at least 23 points only once all season in an inexplicable loss to the Eagles after a 10-day layoff.  They scored more than 30 points 11 times and more than 40 points 5 times.  They lost 3 games by a total of 13 points with only the bizarre loss to the Eagles coming by more than one score.  The analyst could say, the Falcons will find a way to lose a close game.  The analyst should shut up.

The Falcons defense is not on par with the Pats. But it has steadily improved all season and clearly was in full stride against the Packers.  That performance must have built a new level of confidence.  They will need it against the Pats.

The Pats are favored by 3 and the over/under is around 58. Red really likes the Falcons and 3 points.  If they lose, it will be close.  If you can get 3.5 points, take it and run.  Red wonders a bit about the O/U.  SB’s can be notoriously slow starting on the offensive front.  Ah, screw it.  Go with the over and hope for an exciting game that doesn’t last 4 hours.  See you next season. Atlanta 33 New England 28.

Red’s NFL Picks – Conference Championships

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NFL Picks 2016 – Conference Championships

The dream of an all-Texas Superb Owl to be played in Texas died a harsh death last weekend. It wasn’t much of a dream anyway and it keeps alive the curious streak of the home team never hosting the big game.

The Texans never had a chance against the Patriots – although they did keep it close for a whole half as Red predicted. Red almost believed for an instant after Brady’s second interception.

Meanwhile in Arlington, the Cowboys must be sitting around muttering “I could have been somebody, I could have been a contender.” The problem is that Aaron Rodgers is somebody and is always a contender. But now Jerry’s Boys will be spending the off-season wondering what could have been and not making any real changes to a lineup that had a magical year – a year that is not likely to be repeated any time soon.  The Cowboys defense has real problems and the rookie phenoms – may just be rookie phenoms.  As Red has said, he is perfectly okay with the Cowboys winning one playoff game every decade. So, sorry Jerry, the win for the 10’s is already in the books.  Talk to me in 2021.

For Round 2, Red was a spectacular 4-0 and made good on both Sure Bets with the Stealers covering and the under paying off.   Good things come to those who wait and wait and wait and . . .

Prime Time Pick of the Week – Stealers smack Patriots.    About the only good thing to come out of the Texans’ defeat on Saturday was that the defense beat the everloving crap out of Tom Brady.  Even Mrs. Red was getting excited when Chris Covington body slammed TB and Whitney Mercilus dragged him to the ground.  Brady took more hard shots in that game than he usually does in a month.  The Pats running game was also exposed.  Brady won the game with repeated strikes downfield against  Texans defensive backs who always seemed to be clueless as to where the ball was going.  That won’t happen against the Stealers.  Brady will face even more pressure (the Stealers had 30 sacks in the last 8 games). And the Pats are not likely to run against the Stealers any better than they did against the Texans.  But the real question is for the Stealers.  Can they score against the Pats league-leading defense?  The mid-season matchup tells us – well, not much.  The Stealers didn’t have Ben and Pats still had Gronk. Landry Jones had to chuck it up 47 times that day in a losing effort for the Stealers – which is something Ben almost never does. LaGarrette “Fat Pig” Blount rushed for 127 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the Pats to victory.  That does not happen Sunday.  The Pats also will not be bailed out by Dion Lewis – who had more touchdowns on Sunday than in the rest of his career going back to 2011.  Red doesn’t know how the Stealers are going to win, but he knows they are going to win and thus, cover the spread whatever it is.  The Stealers are getting 5.5 just in case you are interested.  The O/U is at 51.  Which strikes Red as way too high. Take the under here.   Pittsburgh 21 New England 20.

Sure Bet Pick of the Week – Packers pelt Falcons.  Aaron Rodgers – great family man that he is – will always have a place in Red’s heart.  Driving a stake through the heart of the Cowboys’ season will do that for you.  And the Packs’ reward is to be a 4.5 point dog on the road against the Falcons.  The Falcons looked like a well-oiled machine on Saturday – with the big exception of letting Devin Hester run wild on kick and punt returns.  Without Hester, the game was not even close.  With him, the game wasn’t that close.  The Pack has no one like Hester.  Although Ty Montgomery’s brilliant play during the Lions-Packers game showed that he is the thinking man’s kick returner.  One of the Lions’ kickoff was dying at about the Green Bay 3 yard line.  But since it was near the sideline.  TM stepped out of bounds and fell on the ball (still in bounds).  Under the very complicated NFL kicking rules, that made the ball out of bounds and put the Packers at the 40 yard line.  It pays to know the very complicated NFL kicking rules.  Red has been duly impressed by the Falcons this season.  He has picked them repeatedly in the past – only to be disappointed.  The long-suffering Falcons fans are not disappointed – well not yet anyway.  It’s a little too good to be true and reality is coming home.  The first meeting of these teams at mid-season was a complete shootout with Rodgers and Ryan combining for 7 TD passes, 534 yards and no INTs. Expect about the same on Sunday.  The oddsmakers sure do.  The O/U on this one is a whopping 61.5.  Red sees them getting there.  The Packers defense is suspect merely by virtue of having Dom Capers in charge.  The Falcons defenses has toughened up considerably over the last month of the season, but these are the Packers after all.  This one could last 4:15 and conceivably goes to OT.  Okay, Red calls OT.  Take the Pack and the points and the over. Green Bay 35 Atlanta 29.

And of course, that gives us a Packers-Stealers Superb Owl.  Who doesn’t want to see that?

Red’s NFL Picks – Playoffs Round 2

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Red has now seen every Texans playoff victory in person as he had the good sense to be in New Mexico for last year’s 30-0 buttwhipping at the hand of the Chiefs. He would dearly love to be in Arlington on Sunday afternoon but will have to settle for hearing about the Cowboys game after playing golf (or possibly at the turn).

For Wildcard Week Red was 2-2. Only Red would pick a team that hasn’t won a playoff game on the road since 1957.  That would be the Lions if you weren’t paying attention.  Picking the Giants turned out to be a less than smart move.  Red will not dis A-Rodg again.  Onward and sideways.

Sure Bet Pick of the Week – Stealers slap Chiefs.    What in God’s name was Ben still doing in the game on the second-to-last play of the game?  The Stealers were lucky that BR was not seriously injured (and by Rotlessburger standards that means not in a coma or on life support in the ICU).   The Stealers simply manhandled an inferior Dolphins squad as expected.  The Chiefs will be a different story, but the ending looks the same.  As one site puts it, the Stealers “look mean as hell” right now.  Look at former Stealers linebacker and current assistant coach Joey Porter who was arrested for assault when he attached a doorman at a bar and topped that off with an aggravated assault charge when he got huffy with an arresting officer. When did the Chiefs last have a coach in a bar fight much less getting arrested?  The Stealers are getting 2 in most lines.  If that goes to 3, jump in with both feet.  The O/U at 51.5 is somewhat surprising.  Red likes the under here.  Enjoy your NFL game of the week.   Pittsburgh 27 Kansas City 20.

Underdog Pick of the Week – Falcons f#©k Seahawks. Matt “No One is Going to Mistake Me for Johnny Unitas” Ryan has one thing going for him this weekend.  He knows how to beat the Seahawks in the playoffs.  That is exactly what he did in 2012. Unfortunately for Mr. Mr. that’s the only thing he knows how to do.  That’s his only postseason win ever. We do have a bit of recent history here as the Seahawks beat the Falcons (Red loves him and all-avian playoff matchup) 26-24 back in October.  But Ryan threw 3 touchdowns against a much better secondary than the Seahawks are putting on the field right now.  The Seahawks missing Earl Thomas is like Red going hog hunting with a BB gun instead of his 7mm mag.   You might remember that just last week, Red made fun of Seahawks running back Thomas “Lou” Rawls and his season total of 349 yards rushing. After torching the Lions for 4332 yards or roughly 2.5 miles, Red takes it  all back.  All Hail, Mr. Rawls – last seen still shedding Lions tacklers somewhere near Butte, Montana.  The Seahawks best hail Mr. Rawls because it’s hard to see them winning this one without a similar performance this week. , Red wants some of what Mr. Rawls is smoking or at least a contact high.  Detroit 21 Seattle 20.

 

Texas Franchise Pick of the Week – Packers pucker up Cowboys.   Speaking of teams playing “mean as hell” consider the Packers.  They lose their best non-quarterback player and big time playmaker (J. Nelson) to a cheapshot and still cruise to an easy win over the best all around defense in the league.  Nelson claims he is going to play Sunday – fractured ribs and all.  The Pack still have the best player in the game right now in Aaron Rodgers – and here Red must again eat crow.  Rodgers was phenomenal last week.  He should fare just as well against  Red once pulled an interstitial muscle in his rib cage mowing the lawn and couldn’t get out of bed for a week.  Red doesn’t belong in the NFL.  Jordy Nelson does.  Meanwhile in the Metroplex, the Cowboys have pretty much stuffed all comers not named the New York Football Giants this season with a rookie QB at the helm.  A rookie QB that was the 113th quarterback taken in the 2016 draft –  okay he was really the 15th.  And to think it could have been Johnny Football.  But Red digresses.  Rookie quarterbacks typically have a hard time in playoff games.  Dom Capers is no dumbass and he will make life difficult for Dak Prescott.  Red predicts that before the game is over – Tony Romo attempts to ride to the rescue and fails miserably. Green Bay 37 Arlington 20.

 

Prime Time Pick of the Week – Patriots punish Texans.   Okay by now you have heard that this is the biggest point spread since David v. Goliath (Red had David at 5-1 just in case you were wondering).  Only around six times in the modern NFL era has a playoff team been disfavored by such a large spread.  One of those times was in 1979 when the Oilers were huge dogs to the Chargers because they were missing Dante Pastorini, Earl Campbell and Kenny Burroughs.  Guess what, they blasted Air Coryell and advanced to the AFC Championship game.  It’s probably the second biggest upset in modern NFL Playoff history.  Unfortunately for Houston fans it seems like no such surprise is in the works Saturday night.  The Texans are 1-7 lifetime against the Patriots.  Red was at the only Texans victory in the last game of the 2009 season and the Texans barely won even though by halftime Tom Brady was sipping a Crown and Coke in a Barcalounger on the sideline and some guy named Brian Hoyer was under center for the Pats.  It still took a fumble recovery in the end zone by Bernard Pollard and three 4th quarter touchdowns for the Texans to pull off a win in what was a meaningless game for the Pats.  It’s not like the Texans haven’t been competitive against the Pats at times.  The Lost 34-31 in December of 2013 at Foxboro and in the first meeting ever on a Sunday night in 2003, Brady had to rally the Pats to tie the game with 40 seconds left before winning 23-20 in OT.  But in the NFL, all of that is ancient history.  The Pats have simply demolished the Texans the last two seasons.  Are the Texans a different team than the one that got slobberknockered in September.  Yes.  But so are the Patriots – they have that guy Tom Brady – you know the one who sells magic pajamas (see above) and has a garage full of trophies. The Texans only win with at least 17 points scored or set up by defense and special teams, one long TD drive and one 75+ yard TD.  If those things happen – and they won’t – the Texans have a chance.  All that said, Red expects the Texans defense to keep it close for a while.  But if it goes according to form, Red will be able to switch over and watch Have Gun Will Travel reruns by the middle of the third quarter.  There are worse ways to spend a Saturday night.  New England 24 Houston 11.

 

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 17

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NFL Picks 2016 – week 17

In Week 16, Red was 3-3 – which is a minor triumph this season. Red is 36-40-2 for the season.  Aaargh!

Sure Bet Pick of the Week – Cardinals crumple Rams. The Cards have been dealt and both of these teams folded.  The Rams actually exceeded expectations and a 5-11 season would not be viewed as an enormous disappointment.  What is disappointing is having the 32nd ranked offense in the 32 team NFL.  Need more disappointment – How about Jared Goff’s 61.7 QB rating? – which makes Case Keenum’s 76.4 look positively marvelous.  Or Todd Gurley’s 3.2 yard per carry average?  Bright spots?  The fantasy freaks who went long on Kenny Britt have to be happy with his 1000 yards and 5 TDs. And the Rams defense doesn’t suck.  But that’s it.   Meanwhile in the desert, the Cards are a major disappointment (we’re using that word a lot here).  No one expected the Cardinals to have a losing record – nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition either.  Giving up 6 is a lot to ask, but the Cards will cover.  Red also likes the over at 40.5 – but just barely.  Arizona 25 Los Angeles 16.

Underdog Pick of the Week – Chargers challenge Chiefs. Red is putting this category to rest after this week.  And what better way to do that than with the team that has consistently underperformed all season.  The Chargers are a playoff team that can’t finish off a game.  The Chargers have lost 5 games in which they seemed to be cruising to victory until the bottom fell out.  That started with the first game of the season when the Chief rallied (a word Red really hates) from 17 points down in the 4th quarter to win 33-27.  That set the tone for the entire Chargers season as they continued to tank it.  Revenge is sweet this week and the Chargers send the Chiefs off to a 5th seed for Wildcard Weekend.  Red just loves that he is picking a team in the midst of a 4 game losing streak.  Arizona 17 Seattle 16.

Rivalry Game Pick of the Week – Giants gouge OTNAs. To rehash from earlier this season – this rivalry rocks.  NFL Network ranks it as the No. 1 rivalry of all time, SI has it at No. 4.  The Giants lead the series 86-81-2 making it one of the most competitive rivalries in league history. The first game, however, was not – as the Giant crushed the Eagles 56-0 at the Polo Grounds in 1933.  Over the years, game have been played at the Polo Grounds, Baker Bowl, Philadelphia Municipal Stadium, Connie Mack Stadium, Yankee Stadium, Franklin Field, Veterans Stadium, Yale Bowl, Giants Stadium, and Lincoln Financial Field.  What is surprising is that the Giants played at Yankee Stadium until 1973 before getting a stadium of their own at the Meadowlands.  The teams have met 4 times in the post-season with the Giants winning in 1981 and after the 2000 season and the Eagles winning after the 2006 and 2008 seasons.  Red expects a shootout on Sunday.  This is your NFL game of the week. New Jersey 35 Philadelphia 31.

Texas Franchise Pick of the Week – Texans tackle Titans.   This game could have been a contender.  But it’s a bum, especially with the soon-to-be-great Marcus Mariota out.  The Texans use this one as a warmup for their 4th playoff game in six years at NRG, which – despite what the bloviators on the radio say – doesn’t suck. Houston 22 Tennessee 20.

Prime Time Pick of the Week – Packers pummel Lions.   This is a real prime time game with many marbles on the line.  All the marbles in fact.  This is winner take all time.  Since starting 4-6, the Pack has turned it on winning 5 in a row.  Meanwhile, the Lions have tanked in December.  This could have been a laugher for them, but it is now do or die.  They die.  Sadly, the weather for Green Bay seems downright pleasant with a game time temperature in the 30’s and no real chance of snow. Green Bay 35 Detroit 27.

Shit Bowl Pick of the Week –Bills butt Jets. This week features the rare all-New York (sort of) Shit Bowl.  Here are two teams that deserve SB status in the final week of what has been a really exceptional SB year.  Almost every week (thanks largely to the Browns and the NFC North)  there have been truly awful games for Red to choose from.  This week is no exception with the fabulously mediocre 7-8 Bills on the road to meet the horrendously disappointing 4-11 Jets.  Those nursing hangovers will be well advised to avoid watching this beastly bowel battle, lest ye be tempted to pick up that stray empty soldier, break it over the coffee table and jab it into your femoral artery to ease the pain of truly awful football. Orchard Park 3 New Jersey 2.

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 16

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Fifteen weeks in and Red is still sucking gas. What’s prognosticator to do?  Open a bottle of Chianti, put the pot roast on the stove and settle in for some more disappointment. Another 2-4 in Week 15 aint getting it done. Red is 35-41-2 for the season.  This week will be 6-0 for sure or perhaps 0-6.  Whatever, Merry Christmas!

Sure Bet Pick of the Week –Titans topple Jaguars. The Titans are playing as well as any highly mediocre team in the league with playoff pretensions right now.  And unlike most of the other pretenders, the Titans actually control their own destiny.  Two wins and they are in.  The scheduling geniuses may look like – well, geniuses – if the Titans win and the Colts lose this week, or if the Titans and Texans both win, or if the Titans, Texans and Colts all lose.  If any of those scenarios come to pass, then it will be winner take on New Year’s Day in Nashville.   For the first time that Red can remember, a game between the old Houston franchise (miss ya’ blue) and the new Houston franchise (see definition of mediocrity in your Webster’s Collegiate) might actually mean something – and Red has to root for that.  Meanwhile, the Jags are coming off tough loss to Texans and firing of Head Coach Gus Bradley (or something like that).  Sometimes hanging a coach in effigy is a cathartic experience for the team and they rally around the survivors.  Not this week.  Mariota torches the Jags and the starters get some rest.  Take the Titans giving up 4 and the over at 43.   Tennessee 33 Jacksonville 16.

Underdog Pick of the Week – Cardinals Crush Seahawks. Red is starting to wonder about the wisdom of this category.  Trying to pick an underdog every week has definitely hurt the bottom line.  But Red is never one to shrink from a challenge – run away screaming like a 8 year old boy perhaps, but not to shrink.  Cardinals are playing for pride at this point.  Seahawks are playing to secure 2d seed.  A loss could drop them to 4th seed if Falcons and Lions both win –possibly resulting in an undesirable wildcard game against the always dangerous in the playoffs Giants. So it’s not like the Seahawks can rest up down the stretch.  Cardinals were in the playoff hunt before losing 4 of the last 5 – mostly to decent teams.  There is no reason to pick them to win on the road, but here goes.  Arizona 17 Seattle 16.

Rivalry Game Pick of the Week – Vikings vanquish Packers. Red picked the Vikings to win this division and Red is going down with the longboat.  As rivalries go, this one is not bad.  112 meetings with the Packers holding a 89-51-2 edge.  And the teams have split their two playoff games with the Vikings winning after the 2004 season and the Packers taking it home in 2012.  The proximity of our northern neighbors and the chance for a late season blizzard game adds to the promise here.  With any luck at all it’s a miserable Christmas Eve in northern Wisconsin.  As you know, Red likes nothing more than to sit by the fire and watch large, fast men play in the snow. Minnesota 13 Green Bay 10.

Texas Franchise Pick of the Week – Cowboys clobber Lions.   Tony Who? Arlington 24 Detroit 20.

Prime Time Pick of the Week – Texans take down Bengals.   Red was present at NRG on a cold Sunday afternoon for the beginning of the Tom Savage era.  Sometimes a strange thing happens when the struggling and seemingly incompetent starter is unceremoniously yanked.  Sometimes the offensive line starts blocking, and the wide receivers start getting open and the running backs pick it up a notch and the referee’s calls start going your way.  That’s exactly what happened on Sunday and TS took advantage leading the Texans to a rousing come from behind victory before the not-so-faithful on the South Loop.  But before we get too excited – remember that it was against the hapless Jaguars.  Episode 2 of “Tom Savage, Texans Quarterback” will be on NFL Network Christmas Eve.  Red will probably be eating his special holiday tenderloin with a stuffed baked potato and a delightful salad surrounded by kith and kin while the drama unfolds.  Let him know how it turns out. Houston 24 Cincinnati 13.

Shit Bowl Pick of the Week –Rams ransack 49ers. This week features the rare all-California Shit Bowl.  Throw in the added plus of a team with a recently fired coach (Mr. Mediocrity himself – Jeff Fischer) and the prospect of a soon to be fired coach (Mr. Send Him Back to College – Chip Kelly) and you have the makings of a possibly entertaining Shit Bowl this week.  Oh, who is Red kidding?  He’s just excited that he doesn’t have to pick a Browns game this week.  So don’t climb up on the roof to fix your Christmas lights at halftime of this beastly bowel battle, you might decide to stay up there and baby, it’s cold outside.  Rams rally to pull one out – pun intended. Los Angeles 27 Santa Clara 24.