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Red’s NFL Picks – NFC North

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The division Red hates most of all.

Vikings.  What a start to last season with the Vikings coming out of the gate 5-0.  Then cold hard reality (like a Minnesota winter) set in and the team went 3-8 to finish the season.  But for the fast start an even season would have looked pretty good after losing Teddy Bridgewater to what may still prove to be a career-ending injury.  With Sam Bradford at the helm and little help from the running backs, the Vikings probably did about as well as could be expected.  Adding Latavius Murray and rookie Dalvin Cook will give SB some more tools and there have been improvement on the O-line, but this season will turn on the defense.  Mark Zimmer had the unit humming last year – ranking 3rd in yards allowed and 6th in points allowed.  They start the same basic unit this season with only Captain Munnerlyn and Chad Greenway gone.  Just a little better play from up and coming players like Danielle Hunter, Tres Waynes and Eric Kendricks could make this the second or third best defense in the league.  More turnovers and they are there.  Red likes the Vikings chances in an overall down year for this divisions.  Minnesota blows no one away but manages a title with a 11-5 record.

Packers.  Packers needed six consecutive wins to end the season after a mealy 4-6 to claim the NFC North last season. But guess what – they still have Aaron Rodgers and a talented crew around him.  That is, except for at tailback where the untested Ty Montgomery is stepping in. Opening with Seattle will be a reasonable test of the Pack and could set the tone for the first half of the season.   But it doesn’t get any easier for the Packers as they also face the Falcons, Bengals, Cowboys, Vikings and possibly dangerous Saints before a favorable Week 8 bye.  Expect a 4-3 record at the break. After that it is a bit easier.  Packers are 10-6 and in as the Wildcard.

Lions.  Matt Stafford is now the highest paid player in the history of the NFL?  Does that make any kind of sense – even nonsense?  No.  Even with the HPPITHOTNFL, the Lions were drubbed in the playoffs by Seattle. This year no one gets the chance to drub the Lions in the playoffs.  Detroit is an 9-7 team at best and while that got them a playoff beating last year – it won’t be good enough in 2017.

Bears.  Red swears the Bears will not switch gears and stay in arrears (in wins) this year, so hear this,  steer clear (if you hold your cash dear) of ever betting on the Bears – except to lose – Red fears.  Sorry.  Chicago 3-13.

Red’s NFL Picks – AFC East

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Ah, the NFC East – also known as the “uncontested lay-up” division for all pundits.

Patriots. As long time readers know (and Red hopes they are both awake and not hungover this morning), this is where Red always writes that it is “cowardly and spineless to pick the Patriots year after year” and then confirms his cowardice and utter lack of vertebral support by picking the Patriots anyway. In fairness to Red, look at the rest of this division – details to follow below.   Red has finally come to terms with the fact that Brady and Bellicheat long ago made a pact with the Dark Lord and while their souls may be damned for all eternity at least they will both end up in the Hall of Fame. Realistically, Red thinks this may be the season where Tom Brady finally looks tired and old and Bellicheat gets his playbook stolen by Russian hackers.  That coupled with a brutal stretch after the Week 9 bye; from November 12 to December 17 the Pats play 5 of 6 games on the road against real competition (Broncos, Raiders, Dolphins and Stealers).  Oh, for crying out loud. Quit kidding yourself Red, you know you have no balls when it comes to this division.  Save your foolishness for the NFC West. Who on the schedule can beat the Pats even on a bad day?  Maybe the Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Falcons and Stealers? Certainly not the Texans as long as Tom Brady is in the house.   New England breezes to another divisional crown with a 12-4 record.  Red really hates himself today.

Bills.  The Bills have not made the playoffs in 17 years – the longest active post-season drought in the NFL (yes – worse than Cleveland even).  Red sees no reason that streak ends anytime soon.  Yes, the inevitably flawed “Rex Ryan as a head coach” experiment ended up with broken glass on the floor and poisonous gasses filling the laboratory/locker room.  Trump supporter Ryan failed in his promise to make Bills’ fans “tired of winning.”  New coach Sean McDermott will at least not be flaunting absurd predictions  of success.  Rather, the Bills seem to be building an offense suited to the limited repertoire of QB Tyrod Taylor.  Coordinator Rick Dennison is implementing a version of the vaunted “West Coast Offense” with short routes mixed with long bombs and quick decisions.   If Sammy Watkins can stay on the field, he leads a corps of competent wideouts.  And then there is the redoubtable LeSean McCoy.  Red isn’t about to guess what to make of his 2017 season.  On the defensive side, out is the Ryan family’s complicated 3-4 scheme and back in with a traditional 4-3.  The Bills seem headed in the right direction after years of aimless wandering, but that probably only translates to a less than awful season.  Orchard Park is reasonably happy with an 8-8 campaign.

Dolphins.  The Dolphins at least went 10-6 and made the playoffs last year. But against the Pats, they were behind 31-3 in week 3 before rallying to lose by only 7 and then were blown out 35-14 in week 17.  In the playoffs the Stealers pushed them aside like a Latvian President and that was it for the aquatic mammals.  The Dolphins cupboard is not bare with up and coming talent like Jay Ajayi and others.  But when your season depends on Jay Cutler . . .  [insert bad thing happening here].  Miami regresses to 7-9.

Jets. The Jets have been a reality TV show for the last several seasons – and a really bad reality TV show at that.  Of course, when the White House is pretty much a reality TV show, maybe Red is on the wrong side of this issue.  Probably not, but Red is an open-minded sort of guy.  But the Jets! What is going on with this franchise? When Red went to the Jets  official website – they did not have a depth chart posted!  Maybe when your choices for starting quarterback include the appropriately named Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty it’s just as well to keep everyone in the dark.  What is going on is a massive roster dump to get the first draft pick next season – thought to be USC quarterback Sam Darnold. Every season Red’s fondest wish is for a 6-10 team to make the playoffs.  His runner-up wish is for a team to go winless.  The Jets love Red this season –  0-16 Baby!

The Real Estate Crime of the Century

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Over the past 30-40 years, real estate developers in Houston have planned and built entire neighborhoods that were destined to flood.  There are two giant reservoirs located on what used to be the far western edge of the Houston metropolitan area.  These are the Addicks and Barker reservoirs which were built in the 1940’s after severe floods almost wiped out central Houston in 1929 and 1935.  Two miles-long earthen dams on the eastern edge of the reservoirs contain rain water that would otherwise flow into Buffalo Bayou which snakes through some of the priciest real estate in Houston and its suburbs before dumping into the Houston Ship Channel.  The HSC itself was once the easternmost part of the Bayou until it was dredged and channelized to allow massive cargo ships to dock close to downtown Houston – almost 40 miles inland from the Gulf of Mexico.  The map below shows a much smaller Houston and the plan for the Addicks and Barker reservoirs as well as a White Oak reservoir and two canals that were never built.

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Most of the time the Addicks and Barker reservoirs are empty and house golf courses, soccer and baseball fields, shooting ranges, hiking trails, model aircraft runways, dog parks and host of other wonderful recreational uses.  Major streets even run through them. But they are designed to flood in a big storm.  When the Army Corps of Engineers designed and built them, the government only bought land behind the dams up to the then-existing 100 year flood plain.  However, if water ever reached the spillway elevation on the dams, it would flood areas far beyond the government owned land.  So, probably because it was cheap and relatively close-in, several developers snapped up the land outside the 100 year flood plain and built neighborhoods, shopping centers and commercial buildings in an area that would flood if water in the reservoirs went above the 100 year flood plain.  These neighborhoods include parts of such high-profile areas as Cinco (make that Sinko) Ranch and Kelliwood.  The map below shows areas that were built in the basin of the Addicks reservoir that will flood at various elevations.  The purple area is government-owned land.  But every area that is colored will flood if the water reaches the spillway.

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Red doesn’t know what kjnd of disclosures were given to purchasers, but plenty of homeowners have come forward claiming that they never knew that their homes would flood if the reservoirs filled up.  Red does kind of suspect that might just be the case.  He also suspects that if a prospective home buyer had been told, “By the way, if that there reservoir ever fills up, you’re gonna be under 6 feet of water.  Just thought you’d like to know”, many buyers might just have considered other options.

Then along comes a Hurricane Harvey and the worst possible scenario plays out.  The masters of the dam are faced with a dilemma.  Do we flood more houses and businesses behind the dam – where stuff never should have been built anyway – or do we flood homes and businesses along Buffalo Bayou – where stuff probably should not have been built either?  Hands were tied to some degree as the reservoirs filled up.  Uncontrolled releases downstream were unacceptable and the prospect of the dams failing was just too dire.  The folks below the dams were flooded – but so were the homes built where they never should have been in the first place.

And that folks, is the real estate crime of the century.

Today in Texas History – September 6

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From the Annals of the Racists –  In 1888,  the Jaybirds, a whites-only political association, met in Richmond and ordered Charles Ferguson and several other black political leaders to leave Fort Bend County within ten hours. The Jaybirds represented the resentful white population (all Democrats) who were still smarting over the Republican government that controlled the county during Reconstruction.  The  competing faction was the Woodpeckers who were nominally Democrats but held office as a result of Republican and black voters.   The Woodpeckers had controlled the county for about 20 years.  The so-called Jaybird-Woodpecker War was fight between these two factions for control of Fort Bend County.  The Jaybirds met in Richmond and “expelled” a number of Woodpecker leaders.

The Woodpeckers won the election despite the expulsion, and the violence continued.  In the spring of 1889, Tax Assesstor Kyle Terry, a Woodpecker, murdered Ned Gibson, a leader of the Jaybirds who was set to testify against one of Terry’s friends in an unrelated cattle-rustling trial. Terry was arrested but posted bail and decamped to Galveston where he was later killed by the Jaybirds.  The cycle of violence continued culminating in the Battle of Richmond, on August 16, 1889, when Woodpecker Sheriff Garvey was killed.  After that, the Woodpeckers were driven from office.

The Jaybirds had a long-lasting influence mostly through the creation of the “Whites Only” Democratic primary system in Fort Bend County which effectively ended any political strength for black voters.  The system was so successful that the Legislature adopted a similar Whites Only primary measure which ensured that the Jaybird Democrats would retain control.  The blatantly unconstitutional and discriminatory practice continued until it was overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court in Terry v. Adams, 345 U.S. 461 (1953).

Today in Texas History – September 5

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Image result for sam houston 1836

From the Annals of the Republic – In 1836, Sam Houston was elected as the first president of the Republic of Texas. Mirabeau B. Lamar was elected as vice president.  Houston defeated Stephen F. Austin and Henry Smith with 79% of the vote.  Austin was initially the front-runner in the race over Smith, who had been provisional governor and a delegate at Washington-on-the-Brazos when Texas declared its independence.  Despite his renown today, Austin was not widely known across Texas and his reputation had been sullied by connections to land speculator Samuel May Williams.  Houston did not declare his candidacy until eleven days before the election, but once he did, victory was all but inevitable. Houston was inaugurated on October 22, 1836, replacing interim president David G. Burnet.  After annexation, Houston would later serve as Texas’ senator and governor.  He was the only person to have been elected governor of two different U.S. states, as well as the only state governor to have been a foreign head of state.

Red’s NFL Predictions – NFC West

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Many are calling this the “easiest division in the NFL” which was certainly a fair characterization  last season. Red sees some teams up, one team down and a tougher level of competition that in recent seasons.

Cardinals. After a disappointing 2016 campaign, the Cards are looking to rebound with a quick start to 2017. The Cards started last season 1-3 and unlike the Stealers never found Recovery Road.  Red is leading with his heart rather than his head on this one.  He went all in for David Johnson in a couple of fantasy leagues and also got stuck with tired old Carson Palmer at QB.  The Cards defense remains solid.  The question is whether the team can win a bunch of ugly 17-13 or the like games.  They can and they do. Arizona sashays to 11-5 record and a sweet playoff berth.

Seahawks.  A popular pick to win the west, many think the Seahawks will dominate the NFL’s “easiest division.”  But other than playing the weaklings (see below) in their division, the Hawks have fairly tough sledding ahead with road games against the Packers, Titans and Cowboys and home games against the Texans, Colts, Eagles and Falcons.  The Hawks could lose all of those games despite the double and triple time zone hex.  Pete the Cheat has had his share of good fortune up to now; maybe this season the worm turns. Seattle struggles to 9-7 and takes a seat for the playoffs.

Rams. Playing in the oldest stadium in the NFL but with the youngest head coach in NFL history in Sean McVay, the Rams will maintain the Jeff Fischer tradition of abject mediocrity.  Actually that’s somewhat of an insult to mediocrity as Fischer was unable to ever post a winning record in his 5 years with the Rams.  Second year QB Jared Goff was the major disappointment of 2016 going 0-7 in his starts and making journeyman Case Keenum look scintillating by comparison.  But in fairness to Goff he was playing behind a makeshift offensive line and with little help from any wideout other than Kenny Britt.  2017 looks better all around.  Tavon Austin looks like the third down back every team wishes it had and Todd Gurley is at least competent and will likely average more than the pathetic 3.2 yards per rush he managed last year. Expect more than 23 total touchdowns this season and for the Rams to not be the worst offense in the league.  Maybe only the third-worst. Los Angeles (for now) improves slightly to 6-10.

49ers.  The Chip Kelly as a professional football coach experiment seems to have come to an end.  The excitement CK was able to bring to Oregon never translated to the pros and Chip if you’re reading – it looks like UNLV might be in the market for some new leadership after losing to lowly Howard in “the biggest upset in college football history.”  A tip of the helmet to the Niners for giving Kyle Shanahan his first opportunity as a head coach. Unfortunately, KS could not bring Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman with him.  Instead he will have to make do with tired old Brian Hoyer and Pierre Garcon.  That’s like going from a Corvette to a Ford Escort, but Shanahan and the Niners will surprise a few folks.  This storied franchise has seen more hard times than good and with the exception of the Harbaugh era has been unable to find a steady hand for 15 years.  Remember Jim Tomsula or Mike Nolan?  Anyone, anyone? Hell, Red thought Mike Singletary was the answer.  Don’t expect miracles in season one, but the Niners are coming back – they’re just coming from way back. Santa Clara goes 6-10.

Today in Texas History – September 1

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From the Annals of the River Crossings –  In 1889, the Waco suspension bridge crossing the Brazos River opened for traffic as a free bridge.  The bridge had opened in 1870 as a toll bridge.  Until then no bridges spanned the Brazos in Texas and for 800 miles travelers had to look for low water crossings or ferries to move east and west through central Texas.  In 1866, the Texas Legislature granted a charter to the Waco Bridge Company giving the WBC a monopoly on transportation across the Brazos for 25 years and prohibiting other bridges to be built within five miles.  The WBC eventually settled on a steel cable suspension bridge design as affordable and practical for the intended use.   The WBC  engaged the John A. Roeblng Company, the firm which originated the suspension span bridge concept.  The WBC hired Thomas M. Griffith, Roebling’s chief engineer, as civil engineer for the project.  The Roebling Company was commisssioned to provide cables and bridgework. After Robeling died in 1869, his four sons inherited the company, which was renamed The John A Robeling’s Sons Company. Washington Robeling, most famous for building the Brooklyn Bridge, finished the Waco bridge which opened to paid traffic in 1870. At the time, it was the longest suspension bridge west of the Mississippi River.  The toll revenues quickly paid for the bridge.  Popular demand for a free bridge arose and McLennan County bought the Suspension Bridge from the WBC  for $75,000 and then sold it Waco for one dollar in an agreement that required the City to maintain the bridge and eliminate any tolls.  The bridge was open to vehicles until 1871 serving for more than 100 years.  Despite many mostly cosmetic renovations, the bridge has been restored to its original glory and is now the centerpiece of Indian Springs Park.

 

License to Run Over a Protestor?

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State Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Frisco) filed House Bill 250  last month that would protect motorists who hit demonstrators “blocking traffic in a public right-of-way” if the river exercises “due care.”   Red isn’t sure how you would determine if a driver used due care in hitting a protestor or why you would want to provide such protection to a motorist.  What’s so gall-danged important that you need to drive through a throng blocking a street anyway?  If it’s a life and death situation, it is also pretty unlikely to involve your average driver in their Toyota.  The bill would not change any criminal laws, but would make it more difficult to hold someone civilly liable in such cases.

Predictably, Fallon caught a lot of flack for his tone deafness in this matter and was outraged that anyone would take umbrage with making it potentially less – shall we say, troublesome – to run over a demonstrator.   The Dallas Morning News has more here.

Harvey Blows!

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Well the whole Red family survived the storm but not without some close calls.  Red is very lucky to have only sustained minor flood damage to the garage and one car.  It sure looked bad on Sunday evening, but ol’ Casa Red has weathered a few of these (insert number here) flood events.  Curious as to how they will characterize this one.

Anyhow, Red is heading out to help some folks that got it much worse than him.  Red encourages anyone who can help to get out and do something.  Delivers some non-perishable food and water to your local fire station or other collection point. Help a neighbor clean out their home.  Drive someone who lost a car.  Do something.

Stay High and Dry – Like Red

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The last time Red actually sat through a Hurricane was with Carla in 1961.

Image result for path of hurricane carla

That sucker was so strong that it was still technically a Hurricane when it hit Austin.  Red remembers the family huddling in the den while the storm passed.  Papa Red took Red outside while the eye was passing over.  Red still remembers the calm between the storms.  Ever since then, Red has headed the other way when hurricanes were a coming.  He may try to ride this one out.  Undecided as yet.

No matter what, Red wishes you and yours the best and hopes that you stay dry and out of harm’s way.  Red will likely be signing off for a few days.  Will see you on the back side.