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Red’s NFL Picks – Week 1

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Week 1 Picks 2016

Red has a new format this year for his weekly six-pack of picks. Every week Red will feature a Sure Bet of the Week, Underdog Pick of the Week, Rivalry Game Pick of the Week, Texas Franchise Pick of the Week, Prime Time Pick of the Week, and of course the Shit Bowl Pick of the Week. Red may add some additional picks as the season goes on such as the Must Win Game of the Week or perhaps the Big Ass Game of the Week.  Stay tuned.

Sure Bet Pick of the Week – Panthers over Broncos.  Red is not particularly fond of having the Superb Owl rematch (in the seasons where that is possible) in the first game of the season – but he certainly understands why the NFL wants to kick off the season in fine form.  Unfortunately, this game doesn’t look to keep the fans in Des Moines interested for very long and only the true addict of the professional sports crack that is the NFL will be watching come the 4th quarter. The Panthers played about as bad a game as possible last February.  They have to be looking forward for a small shot at redemption.  They have a clean shot on Thursday and they take down the defending champions rather handily.  Red thinks that Carolina minus 3 is a lock and that the over at 41.5 is even better.  Carolina 35 Denver 20.  

Underdog Pick of the Week – Jaguars over Packers. Jags are Red’s moving team this season.  Moving from the outhouse to the playoffs in Red’s humble estimation.  This is a statement game for Coach Gus Bradley. It’s his 4th season and probably getting close to the make or break point.  It will be the first sellout crowd for the Jags since October of 2014. That may be a mixed blessing as the sell out may be due to Packers fans making the trip to N. Florida for a chance to see the beloved green and gold.  However, it will be hot and the hotter the better for the Jaguars. It’s hard to believe, but the Packers have played in just two 90+ degree games in their 97 year history.  The Pack wilts before it fades to black on Sunday. Jacksonville 20 Green Bay 17.

Rivalry Game of the Week – Giants over Cowboys. This is the kind of game the Cowboys always seem to win.  A young untested quarterback takes over and leads the team to a come-from-behind victory.  Remember Clint Longley, Gary Hogeboom and even a young Tony Romo himself.  Last season, hwoever, it was tired old Tony Romo leading the ‘Boys to an season opening win against the soon to be hapless Giants.  Not this year, as Romo is out for this one, and the next one, and the next one . . .  But more than Romo being out most of last season, the true cause of the Cowboys’ ills was the return to form of the defense.  After a record-setting season of utter putridness in 2013, the Cowboys defense was nothing short of outstanding in the run to the playoffs in 2014.  But they regressed mightily last year causing only 11 turnovers and generally getting walked on.  Now missing DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory, the Big D looks to be unable to put any serious pressure on a pocket passer like Eli.  Sunday afternoon he gets to stand back and pick ‘em apart. New Jersey 37 Arlington 13.

Texas Franchise Pick of the Week – Texans over Bears. Lucky for Bill-O the Clown that the Texans start off with a game against the bumbling Bears.  There are a lot of questions to be answered for the Texans with a new quarterback, new tailback, new receivers and tight ends.  Unfortunately for the Texans it looks like pretty much the same crappy old offensive line and that will be the deciding factor for the Texans most of the season.  I don’t care how good Lamar Miller looked last season, you can’t run through non-existent gaps.  Osweiler better learn to get rid of the ball quickly.  The defense is real and will keep the Texans in a lot of games to the very end this season. Houston 23 Chicago 8.

Prime Time Pick of the Week – Cardinals over Patriots.  The Patriots need Tom Brady like a flower needs the rain, like a dog needs a bone, like a soldier needs a rifle, like a man needs a woman (or another man as the case may be), like a preacher needs the collection plate, like an old man needs his false teeth, like a crack ho needs a rock, like Red needs to give this one a rest. Arizona 31 New England 17.

Shit Bowl Pick of the Week – Colts over Lions. Talk about two teams that underperformed last season.  The Colts season effectively ended before Christmas when they lost to the Texans at home for the first time ever.  Yes, they rallied to win the last two games against the hapless Dolphins and the battered Titans, but they lost control of their fate by losing the 16-10 snoozefest to the Texans in Week 15.  That capped off a 3 game losing streak that took the Colts from almost certainly securing a playoff spot – to on the outside looking in for a change.  The Colts are likely no better this season.  Red has them going 8-8 and finishing at the bottom of the heap in the AFC South.  Meanwhile, no team had a harder fall than the Lions in 2015.  By Week 7 they had already lost 6 games, more than they lost in the entire 2014 season.  They did rally to finish 6-2 over the second half of the season and did win in Green Bay for the first time in 25 years, but other than that 2015 was pretty much a complete write-off for Matt Stafford and friends.  Things look worse this season without Megatron and with Stafford clearly established as a third tier talent.  The Colts better enjoy this one, because it won’t get any easier.  If you are still watching this turgid turd tussle in the second half, make sure your seat belt is fastened, your seat back and tray table are in their full upright and locked position.  It’s going to be a rough landing. Indianapolis 29 Detroit 10,

 

Red’s NFL Preseason Picks

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Red’s 2016 NFL Predictions

Football season starts early in the Lone Star State. So early that Red has already been to not one but two high school games. And really, there is nothing quite as boring as your average high school football game with an average of 33 penalties, obnoxious parents, bad refs, inept play, mosquitos, surprisingly small crowds and a 7-0 final score.  The tedium of a high school game is rivaled only by a regular season NFL game with its endless TV timeouts, incredibly loud piped in bad 80’s music (at least at NRG), obnoxious beer-guzzling fans, sanitized atmosphere and overall complete lack of spectacle.  Such is the fan experience for the modern-day gladiation that is professional football.  Red can handle about 2 pro games a year – maybe 3 if his team makes the playoffs.

Other than that, Red is totally excited to bring you his pre-season predictions. Red’s record in this regard over the last decade or so is at least respectable. As usual, however, Red disclaims all responsibility for little juvenile delinquent Timmy stealing the grocery money and going down to his local bookie and putting it all on Red’s projected Superb Owl winner. Those foolish enough to wager on any professional sporting event that doesn’t involve equines running counter-clockwise around an oval track get exactly what they deserve.   So Danny, keep your grubby little felonious mitts out of Mom’s purse and leave this stuff to the pros who usually don’t do a whole lot better than Red.

2015 Season Recap

Red’s NFC division champions were the Eagles, Falcons, Seahawks and Panthers. Wild cards were the Rams and Vikings.  That’s 4 out of 6 in the playoffs.  Better than, “Meh!”

Red’s AFC division champions were the Patriots, Broncos, Colts and Bengals. Wild cards were the Chargers and Ravens.  That 3 out of 6 in the playoffs.  What can he say, Red blew it.

Red’s 7 out of 12 is unacceptable. He’ll run laps sometime in October.    Please not that Red did pick JJ Watt as Defensive Player of the Year. Big Whoop.

Red’s Annual Bitch.

 If you are a Cowboys fan, and may God have mercy on your soul if you are, thanks to the NFL scheduling gurus you need not worry about rushing home from church for the kickoff. This year is no exception.  Here is the National TV schedule for the team that went 4-12 last season.

Week 1       Giants Sunday Late Game

Week 3       Bears Sunday Night Game

Week 4       At 49ers Sunday Late Game

Week 5       Bengals Sunday Late Game

Week 6       At Packers Sunday Late Game

Week 8       Eagles Sunday Night Game

Week 10     At Stealers Sunday Late Game

Week 11     Redskins Thanksgiving

Week 12     At Vikings Thursday Night Game

Week 13     At Giants Sunday Night Game

Week 16     Lions Monday Night Game

Cowboys get 3 of the 16 Sunday Night games.  Plus 5 Sunday Late Games – only one of which (49ers) is time zone related. Plus a Monday Night and a Thursday Night appearance. And the traditional Thanksgiving day game

That is the standard minimum of 11 national TV appearances for a franchise that shat their collective pants last season. Only in corporate America does such incompetence get rewarded like this.

NFC East

Giants.  This division is more up for grabs than a deep ball from Peyton Manning.  Any team could win this thing.  But those darn statistics boys tell us that only one team can. It’s up to Uncle Red to figure that one out. The Cowboys will be starting a rookie quarterback and unproven rookie Ezekial Elliot at back.  It’s unclear what the OTNA’s are up to and the Eagles are still a mess.  Red is predicting that the NFC East will be this year’s PEFAPFD (that’s pathetic excuse for a professional football division for those who haven’t been paying attention).   Now that the Tom “Coach of the Walking Dead’ Coughlin is gone, look for new life in Northern Jersey.  Ben “No Relation to Bob” McAdoo takes over after serving as offensive coordinator.  The Giants probably had more money to spend than any other team in the off season and spend like drunken sailors they did. Additions of Janoris Jenkins and Eli Apple to join Dominique Rogers-Cromartie may give the Giants the best trio at corner in the league.  Name a better group.  Hmm, thought so.  And they won’t be short-handed with Jason Pierre Paul back for the entire season (no pun intended).  As seems to happen almost every other year now, a team with a losing record will advance to the playoffs.  New Jersey racks up a 5 game losing streak in the latter part of the season but still slides in under the door at 7-9 while the rest of the division goes home to kick the dog.

NFC South:

Panthers. Red usually picks the Falcons and we see how that usually works out. In a swift break from tradition, Red is going with the NFC Champion Panthers to repeat as division winners in 2015.  The Panthers were undoubtedly the best team in the NFL last season until the clock struck midnight, the offensive line turned back into a bunch of rats, the football became a slippery pumpkin and Cam Newton lost one of his glass cleats on the way out of the locker room only to have Von Miller stomp on it like the groom at a Jewish wedding. That’s how the Cinderella story usually ends.   This season Cam solidifies his spot as one of the two or three best all round quarterbacks.  And he has some more help with Kelvin Benjamin back.  The loss of Josh Norman will be painful, but Luke Kuechly anchors a more than good enough defense. It’s a bit of a comedown for Carolina to a 12-4 season but only a bit of a comedown as shall be seen.

NFC West: 

Cardinals.  Call Red a frontrunner if you must – it won’t hurt his feelings. Red didn’t believe in the Cardinals last year and he isn’t exactly drinking the Kool-Aid now.  The Cards may be just a Carson Palmer pulled groin away from a 7-9 season.  David Johnson is the hot topic now.  Look for a bit of a sophomore slump, but there 10-6 for Arizona probably should do it in the NFC West.

NFC North:

Vikings. Remember when NFL teams used to play at places with mysterious names like the Polo Grounds or Arrowhead Stadium or Candlestick Park or the Los Angeles Coliseum or the Cotton Bowl? Red is showing his age I suppose. The Vikings who once played at Metropolitan Stadium and then the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome are now leaving the not so cozy confines of the TCF Bank Stadium at the University of Minnesota for new digs.  Red would research the record for established teams breaking in new stadiums if he were that kind of guy.  Rest assured, he isn’t.  Exactly how does one get excited about a Sunday afternoon game at good old U.S. Bank Stadium.  Does that come with free checking and a carry-all?  Red is high on the real stuff and Teddy Bridgewater.  Touchdown Teddy will have a true break out season in 2016 and No. 1 pick Laquon Treadwell will provide a tempting target that was missing most of last season.  The real mystery man in the passing game may be Moritz Bohringer who was drafted in the 5th round out of the Schwabisch Hall Unicorns of the German Football League. He’s a long shot to make the team but he has size and speed enough if he can pick up the game.   Minnesota makes it look easy this season with a 13-3 record to win the division.

Update: Oops! Teddy’s gone for the season and Sam “Where’s My Head” Bradford is at the helm.  Red is going to cowboy up and ride the Vikings anyway because it’s too much trouble to rewrite this stuff.

 NFC Wildcards:

Buccaneers. Last season’s rookie of the year Jameis Winston has Red believing. Red also still believes in Santa Claus and alien abductions.  The running back combo of Doug Martin and Charles Sims could be the most potent in the NFC – after all they combined for 2700 yards of total offense last season. All that wasn’t good enough to avoid a four game losing streak that ended in Head Coach Lovie Smith and the entire defensive staff getting shit-canned.  Out with the old and in with the old as the Bucs promoted offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter (who has as close to a good porn star name as you are ever going to see on an NFL coaching staff unless Dick Butkiss comes back) to head coach.  JW will not have to learn a news system and the Bucs offense was certainly good enough to have a winning season last year.  On the other side, they brought in also shit-canned former Falcons head coach Mike Smith to run the defense.  It seems that defensive guys who get head coaching spots and fail almost always come back and do pretty damn well as defensive coordinators again. See, e.g., Dom Capers, Jack Del Rio and Wade Phillips.  Tampa Bay sneaks in at 9-7.

Packers. Really by default. Of course they are probably going to win the North with Bridgewater gone.  Of course Aaron Rodgers is going to be good.  Of course, someone at Lambeau Field will suffer frostbite in Week 17.  Of course, they will sell out every game.  Of course, Red will stop picking the Packers someday. Of course, today is not the day.  Green Bay does it again at 10-6.

AFC East

Patriots. This is typically where every year Red writes that it is cowardly and spineless to pick the Patriots year after year and then he goes and does just that. Each year Red thinks that this cannot last forever, that Tom Brady is finally going to look tired and old, that Belichick’s deal with Satan is up, and that the Pats will finally see the Jets or the Bills or the Dolphins gaining on them and not be able to finish. And each year Red is wrong in his mind but right on the pick.  New England whips the East yet again and goes 12-4.

AFC West

Raiders.  Really not excited about picking any team in this division.  Red likes Lativius and Lil’ brother Carr while continue to maintain that David Carr still sucks!  But maybe just maybe, this is the season after which the wretched and emaciated ghost of Al Davis can finally rest in peace with another division championship.  Ah, who is Red kidding? Dead Al will walk the corridors of NFL stadiums for all eternity searching for another championship for the Silver and Black.  Oakland surprises everyone with an outstanding 12-4 record.

AFC South:

Jaguars. Red likes to go out on a limb in this division. Red views this as possibly the most competitive division in the NFL in 2016.  Every team has a chance and every team has a big question mark.  The Texans have a revamped offense at the skill positions and a solid defense (if Clowney and Watt are healthy), but the offensive line is a complete disaster.  The Colts have question marks everywhere, but have the only truly experienced quarterback in the division.  The Titans are coming on strong, but is Mariota the franchise QB?  Red predicts you will have one team at 8-8 and three teams at 9-7 and have to go deep into the tie-breakers to pick a division winner.  Jacksonville wins with best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and allowed (Tiebreaker No. 7).  How’s that for exactitude.

AFC North

Bengals. Red distant cousin Andy “Red Rifle” Dalton can’t seem to catch a break. He was having a season that could have put him reach of an MVP award when he broke his thumb in Week 14.  Even so, they almost won a playoff game against the Stealers with A.J. McCarron under/behind center.    So it’s pretty much make or break time for this current iteration of the Bengals.  They have the weapons on offense with the Jeremy and Gio show.  Bengal have lost 8 straight playoff dating back to 1991 and have lost 5 straight in the last in the last 5 seasons – the only team in NFL history with such a record of playoff futility. Once again, Red is again picking a team that hasn’t won a playoff game in 25 years. Cincinnati 11-5.

AFC Wildcards

Jets. Meet the Jets, Greet the Jets, Step Right up and Beat the Jets.  But not too often. New Jersey 10-6.

Broncos.  The defending champion sometimes has a rough road to even returning to the playoffs. The Broncos may have it even tougher with new quarterback Trevor “the Ape Man” Siemian beating out tired old Marc Sanchez for the starting job. Gibbon his lack of experience, you might think Red is a fool to pick the Broncos.  But in Siemian, Red can siamang who knows how to use the offensive weapons he has. With an inexperienced starter, Kubiak won’t monkey around with trick plays.  Instead, he’ll find a way to macaque the defenses straight on. But do look for some langur passes to stretch the field.  And the Broncos defense is strong, so awesome that it might seem surrillis at times – and but rest assured it’s very real.  I could see the Chiefs getting this last spot but I lemur to Denver.  They are bonobo at least 10-6 and get into the mix.  The orangutan and blue is headed back to the playoffs and Broncos fans can gorilla crazy in January.  They won’t be the chimps, but it will be a good season.

Awards

NFL MVP – Andy Dalton – As noted, he might have won last year but for the untimely broken thumb.

Defensive Player of the Year – Khalil Mack – He would have won last year but for the force of nature that is JJ Watt

Offensive ROY – Will Fuller must learn that those things he has called hands are designed to catch a football. If he does that, he’s ROY.

Defensive ROY – Myles Jack – He’s got to stay on the field, but if he does he could put up some numbers that will get attention.

Comeback Player of the Year –  Jordy Nelson will be a fantasy favorite in 2016.

Coach of the Year – Gus Bradley – All he has to do is win.

Playoffs

NFC Championship Game – Panthers over Cardinals

AFC Championship Game – Bengals over Jaguars

Superb Owl – Panthers rout Bengals and claim the first Lombardi Trophy for one of the post-modern era expansion teams.

 

Red’s 2015 NFL “Dead Man of the Year” Award

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Before we get to Red’s annual NFL Predictions, there is the presentation of the 2015 NFL Dead Man of the Year Award

For those not in the know, the award is given annually to the player who went from a meaningful contribution to his team in the previous season to utter worthlessness. In other words, the player who contributed about as much as a “Dead Man.”

There really wasn’t much serious competition in 2015.   Justin Forsett comes to mind – but who really thinks about JF other than those – who like Red who were foolish enough to spend loads of dough on him in fantasy football.  And injury alone will not get you a coveted DMOY award. Matthew Stafford was certainly comatose if not dead for most of 2015 and was the major factor in the Lions return to irrelevancy. Chris Johnson was playing behind what some thought was the second or third best offensive line in football and still managed to rack up all of 840 yards and 3 TDs (fortunately for CJ he was dead in 2014 and thus ineligible).  CJ Anderson was on life support for most of the season, but was released from intensive care to contribute in some fashion to the Broncos remarkable playoff run.

In Red’s humble opinion – the only one that counts here – it was a slam dunk over the goal post for the one player who got more press for his utter personal worthlessness than for his demonstrated on-the-field worthlessness. That would be none other than Johnny Manziel aka Johnny Football aka Jonathan F. Football.   JFF had the perfect trifecta of sucking at football, life and as a legal client.  Let’s roll some of the 2015 highlights.

In October, Manziel was pulled over by a policeman after fighting in his car with his soon to be ex-girlfriend. Although he was not arrested, the supposedly sober JF admitted to drinking booze earlier that afternoon. Right!

On November 24, a week after Manziel was announced as the Browns’ starter for the remainder of the season, coach Mike Pettine demoted Manziel to third string after a video of him partying surfaced on the internet. And surprise, surprise, surprise, it was later discovered that Manziel had lied about the video.

On January 2, 2016, the night before the Browns final game, Manziel was spotted partying at Las Vegas’ Planet Hollywood casino. Manziel was scratched from the final game because of a concussion. But as word of his appearance at the casino spread across social media, he posted a photo on Instagram of himself and his dog at home. Manziel then failed to report for his concussion protocol.  This led to reports that the Browns are “so done with Manziel” (true) and that he “wants to go to Dallas (Cowboys)” (oh, how Red wishes that were also true).

Red salutes Johnny Manziel as the winner of Red’s 2015 NFL Dead Man of the Year.   Johnny, you earned it the old-fashioned way – You Sucked.

Texans Make Bold Play in Free Agency

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The Houston Texans went long in the free agent market yesterday – signing Denver Broncos “backup” quarterback Brock Osweiler and Miami Dolphins running back Lamar Miller.   The moves are intended to fill two gaping holes in the Texans offense with current QB Brian Hoyer being widely viewed as a capable second stringer at best and the backfield being open following the release of running back Arian Foster.

Red rates the Miller move as a solid decision to pick up a proven running back who has averaged 4.6 yards per carry on weak to mediocre Dolphins teams.   Miller also comes in at age 25 (for next season) without too much wear and tear.  He has 638 carries in his 4 year career.  The last two seasons, Miller also showed himself as a capable receiver averaging over 40 catches.  He should be good enough to keep the job for 3-4 seasons if used wisely.  Miller has said he wants 20 touches a game.  If the Texans are smart, it will be about 15 and Alfred Blue will continue to get work in relief.  The $26 million – 4 year deal for LM is not a budget buster.   On the proverbial scale, Red weighs this one in at 7.5.

The Osweiler deal is another story.  The Texans busted open the bank with a 4 year – $72 million contract for the unproven BO.  The sports talk empire in Houston was naturally abuzz over the move with the local sports wags mostly buying the company line.  Red has to break with Charlie Palilo, Red’s preferred drive-time radio man, on this one.  The Texans have placed at least 10 of the dozen eggs in the Osweiler basket and Red thinks the bottom may not be as strong as beleaguered Texans GM Rick Smith calculates.   For those interested, here is what $72 million buys these days.  If BO turns out to be a less injury-prone Matt Schaub 2.0, then the deal is probably just on the high side of okay.  But for fans expecting Osweiler to take the Texans to the next level (which would be making it to the AFC Championship game), Red thinks probably not.  Which means for ol’ Billy Bob Texansfan, this move is likely to disappoint.  Safe to say, however, that Rick Smith and Coach Bill O’Brian have staked their careers in Houston on this move.

 

Today in Texas History – February 25

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From the Annals of the Cowboys – In 1989, Jerry Jones, the new owner of the Dallas Cowboys, fired head coach Tom Landry after a 29-year career.   Jones made Cowboys General Manager Tex Schramm accompany him to Landry’s vacation home in Lakeway.  Schramm characterized it as, “a very difficult meeting.  It’s very, very sad.  It’s tough when you break a relationship you’ve had for 29 years.”  Schramm stood solemnly and red-eyed at a news conference where JJ announced the firing of Landry later that evening at the team’s Valley Ranch headquarters. Landry’s recent results had been well below his standards with the Cowboys failing to make the playoffs in 4 of his last 5 seasons.  Landry had indicated that he wanted to coach into the 90’s if he wasn’t fired. Jones for his part wasted no time in kicking Landry to the curb having only finalized his purchase of the iconic franchise two days before firing Landry.  Jones was adamant that he would not have bought the team unless he could bring his long-time friend and former University of Miami coach Jimmy Johnson on to lead the Cowboys.  Landry ended his coaching  career as the third-winningest coach in NFL history behind only George Halas and Don Shula, with a record of 270-178-6.  He ranks only behind Bill Bellicheat with 5 trips to the SuperBowl as a head coach.

For his part, Red had already given up his 27 year fanship of the Cowboys during the strike year of 1987 when Cowboys quarterback Danny White led the movement to break the players union and Dallas fans thumbed their noses at the players they formerly idolized.

Red’s NFL Picks – Super Bowl

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“If it’s the ultimate game, how come they’re playing it again next year?”

Duane Thomas – former running back for the Cowboys, Chargers, Redskins and Hawaiians (WFL).

According to legend, Thomas was overwhelmingly selected as the MVP of Superb Owl VI after the Cowboys stomped on the Dolphins for their first of five wins. But because of DT’s prickly relations with the press (basically ignoring them all season), Larry Klein of Sport magazine which presented the award, named Roger Staubach instead.

Red Rates Himself – For Conference Championship Week Red was 2-0. For the season Red is now 60-46. What money goes to Vegas stays in Vegas – unless you have Red by your side.

Your Ultimate Pick of the Week: Panthers over Broncos. This should be an interesting game. Of course, Red thought that two years ago when you had an incredible Broncos offense facing a tremendous Seahawks defense. My how the worm has turned. This one features an anemic Broncos offense going up against a very good Panthers defense. And a superb Panthers offense facing off against a world-beating Broncos defense. In the modern NFL, Red typically bets on the offense.

First, let’s consider the Broncos – who have won 11 of their 14 victories by seven points or less in the regular season and playoffs which are the most such nail biters by any team in the Superb Owl era. In other words, the Broncos have been winning by the skin of their mouth guards no thanks to the offense. Even PMS was forced to acknowledge this. “Like I’ve said from the get-go, our defense has gotten us to this point. Let’s make that very clear.” On the positive front, the Broncos have five wins against playoff teams having beat the Chiefs, Vikings, Packers, Patriots and Bengals. That is nothing short of incredible in the modern NFL. With probably the best secondary in the league, the Broncos can afford to focus on stopping the run – something they will have to do against the Panthers who happen to have a very good running back playing under center. But then there is that fairly awful offense led by the aged PMS. Last game PMS launched a bomb (maybe 40 yards in the air) against the Pats just as if to say, “I can still do this.” Well maybe so, maybe no. The Broncos have to establish a semblance of a running game to keep this one close and keep PMS from being taken off the field in a basket. CJ Anderson must break at least 2 long runs (he had one against the Stealers and one against the Pats) and the Broncos need 120 yards of rushing. With that, the excellent Panthers defense will free up some space for PMS. If it’s a close game, don’t bet against the Broncos.

 

Moving on to the Panthers, there is almost nothing bad to say about this team beyond the ugly home uniforms. Even that won’t be a factor since they are the visiting team on Sunday. The only real mystery is how the Falcons managed to beat them. With a defense already good enough to win a bunch of games, the Panthers added a top-ranked offense cranking out 31 points per game and never looked back. The Panthers beat three playoff teams – Texans, Packers and OTNA’s – two of whom prevailed in the PEFAPFD that were the AFC South and NFC East this season. So until the playoffs, the Panthers had not really beaten down on a good team other than the Packers – but boy did they bring down the hammer in those games. But more than any other team except perhaps the Patriots, the success of the Panthers rests on the shoulders (and legs) of one man – MVP to be Cam Newton. The Panthers rushing game is what has kept defenses honest, but it is the extraordinary playmaking ability of CN that grabs the headlines. The only real question for the Panthers is will CN somehow wilt in the spotlight. That seems improbable given his demeanor, however, he was somewhat shaky the last time he played for a championship at Auburn. If there is a second set of shoulders here it would be the very capable ones of Greg Olsen. He is clearly the second-best TE in the game with a 14.3 yards per catch average based on his ability to catch and run.

The one stat that really sticks out as the difference between these teams is the +20 turnover margin for the Panthers as opposed to the -4 margin for the Broncos. It is probably weak-kneed, trite and lame to claim that the game will come down to turnovers – except that it probably will. I do expect the Broncos defense to acquit itself respectably in this game, but the likelihood is that the Panthers get a short field at least once and stop a promising Broncos drive at least once simply because of the way the ball bounces.

Red’s record on Superb Owl bets is admittedly spotty. The Panthers giving up 6 is a lot given the Broncos record of keeping games close. The 44.5 O/U is more attractive. Red likes the under here – which means the game probably is going to OT.

Final Prediction of the Season. Carolina 24 Denver 17.

 

Red’s NFL Picks – Conference Championships

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“The stash of games is getting low.”

Said many years ago by an old stoner friend of Red’s (who loved football almost as much as he liked the weed). Indeed, it is. Indeed, it is.

Red Rates Himself – For Round 2 of the Playoffs Red was 2-2. For the season Red is now 58-46. Omaha, Omaha.

Your Rocky Mountain High Pick of the Week: Broncos over Patriots. Red is breaking tradition and all the rules by picking the Broncos – even though the Patriots were his preseason AFC Champ. If this game were in Foxboro, Red would call it the other way. If you didn’t notice, every home team won last week and every game was a “one score” game in that one score by the losing team would have won or tied the game. Red expects the same this weekend. There will be no blowouts of the last teams standing but the home field advantage in this type of game is enormous. The Patriots strategy last week was to pretend like the solid front 7 of the Chiefs defense simply did not exist and throw, throw some more and keep throwing the entire game. There was a mere pretense of a running game – not surprising since the Pats were down to retired retread Steven Jackson as their main option in the backfield. No knock on Jackson who had a solid career but expecting him to come out of retirement a couple of weeks before the playoffs and rush for 100 yards is a little much even for the Pats. That strategy will not work against the best defense in the league. Miller, Ware, Jackson and Wolfe will be turned loose on Brady. Pressure will be the key. So what will Belicheat pull out of the hat this week in the face of the team who gets after the QB better than anyone else? If Red knew that he wouldn’t be working for a living.   Red expects the Broncos’ sputtering offense will need to score 24 to win and they can do that with smart game management and a decent game from the disappointing C.J. Anderson. The Broncos need at least 130 yards on the ground and the clock chewing that entails, if they are going to win. And PMS needs to not suck – a tall order right now. Red likes the Broncos plus 3, but the O/U at 44.5 scares him. Denver 24 New England 23.

Your Wildwood Weed Pick of the Week: Panthers over Cardinals. Cardinals surprised Red last week. He thought that the Packers wild finish would finish off a team that had to be wondering “What the Hell just happened?” But Larry Fitzgerald put an end to Red’s dream of correctly picking both Superb Owl teams – so now he hates them. On the other side, the Panthers have simply been the best team in the league all season. Notwithstanding the Seahawks furious comeback in the second half, what the Panthers did to the Hawks in the first half ought to be illegal. Red expects a similarly fast start to this one – again followed by a spirited rally that falls short. And although, Red would desperately like to see the first ever all Mountain Time Zone Superb Owl (with the only two teams that could possibly make that happen), he can’t go against a Carolina team that has bested all comers but one – and looked pretty snappy doing so. Red likes the Panthers giving up 3 and the over at 44.5.   Carolina 35 Arizona 29.

Red’s NFL Picks – Second Round

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“You’re not that damn important.”

Brian Mitchell – referring to RGIII.

But really, who is?

Red Rates Himself – For Wildcard Weekend Red was 3-1 making up somewhat for the late season slide into high mediocrity. Red would have been 4-0 but for the Bengals total meltdown at the end of the game. His best call was on the Texans/Chiefs debacle where Red claimed “one big play will probably decide this one.” And damn if Red wasn’t right. He just didn’t know that it would be on the opening kickoff. At least Red had the good sense to keep his other commitments and not waste $500 and 6 hours of his time watching the Texans’ ship go down without a fight.

For the season Red is now 56-44. Red likes easy percentage calculations.

And Red knows the NFL calls this the Divisional Round or some such nonsense. It is not that, because we obviously have Wildcard teams still playing. This is Round Two or as Red prefers the Second Round. Take your pick.

Your Damnation Pick of the Week: Patriots over Chiefs. Red has to stick with the Patriots (his preseason AFC Champ) because that’s the way this thing works. And given his spotty record on picking the playoff teams this year (more on that later) he needs the added oomph of picking the Superb Owl correctly which is something that happens about once a decade. Given that, all signs point to the Chiefs – except the sign that says Foxboro City Limits. Patriots don’t typically lose in the playoffs in F’town. In the Brady Era, they are 14-3 in home playoff games. In this business, we call that a trend. More of a portent in Red’s humble opinion. This game turns on the Pats defense. If they hold the Chiefs to 20 or under, the odds of the Pats winning the game are incalculable. I cannot imagine the Pats not scoring at least 21 on any team left in the playoffs. At playoff time, the Pats either score around 15 and lose or more than 20 and win. I think this is one very tight and the Chiefs could easily win this game with even a decent offensive performance. Red likes the Chiefs plus 5 if you can get it. New England 24 Kansas City 19.

Your DamnYankees Pick of the Week: Packers over Cardinals. Cardinals picked a bad time to fall apart and lose key players. Packers fell apart early and often while shedding good players like the working girls at the Men’s Club. Again this is a damn close call between two teams that could win the Superb Owl with just a little luck. Red won’t overly retread his Quality Wins rubric. Suffice it to say that the Packers come in with 3 (discounted for early season wins) while the Cards also have 3 QWs over the Pack, Vikings and Seahawks. Despite this trend of beating our northernmost NFL teams, Red again has to play out the skein all the way out and since he picked the Packers to win it all this year, he has no choice but to go against his gut and pick the Pack. But he wouldn’t bet on this game if you held a hot poker to his pecker. Green Bay 27 Arizona 24.

Your Double Damn Pick of the Week: Panthers over Seahawks. The Panthers don’t strike Red as a team that is going to play tight in a situation where everyone might expect them to not be able to excrete an aspirin. Cam stays loose and since the Panthers have to rightfully believe that they can beat anyone why should they fear the Seahawks. These teams are fairly similar both featuring offenses powered by a steady running game backed up by mobile quarterbacks who are mediocre in the passing game and tough defenses. Admittedly, the Hawks have a better defense, but have they really faced anyone like CN all season? Only in practice. And they were lucky to escape with their lives when facing a decent Vikings defense last week. At some point CN is going to have to take this game over and make some plays against a defense that will be head-hunting. If he survives the gauntlet then the Panthers can win this one going away. Everyone but Red is calling this the game of the week. Red thinks the Panthers expose the Hawks more than the Vikings did last week. Take the Panthers giving up a single point. Carolina 37 Seattle 13.

You’re Damn, Damn, Damn Pick of the Week: Stealers over Broncos. PMS (that’s Peyton Manning Starting for those who have not been paying attention in class) is old and brittle and all but washed up as a premier QB. Ben Rotlessburger is not quite as old and still tough as the steak served at El Rio in Monterrey. Red never underestimates the ability of brilliant Gary Kubiak to outcoach himself and blow it in a big game. He has a defense that can win this game if he will just let them, but he won’t and the Broncos are going to turn it over at least 3 times. The Stealers are playing on borrowed time and glad of it. They make the most of it this week. Red likes the Stealers plus 7 – he likes it a lot. He may like the over at 38.5 even more. Pittsburgh 28 Denver 23.

The San Antonio Raiders?

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With Oakland seemingly licking up the scraps from the NFL Owner’s table, the fate of the Oakland Raiders is in doubt.  When Raiders President Mark Davis visited San Antonio last year, many viewed it as a publicity stunt to show the league that the Raiders were serious about leaving Oakland and viewed San Antonio (wink, wink, nudge, nudge) as a possible destination.  But yesterday, the Raiders were left sucking hind tit when the owner’s committee recommended that the Rams move back to LA and give the Chargers the option of being included in the deal.  The committee also recommended that the league funnel $100 million towards the construction of a new stadium in Oakland.  But $100 million is a drop in the bleachers under current stadium construction budgets which typically exceed $1 billion.   The snub plus the fact that the Raiders have already purchased land in the San Antonio/Austin area, plus the fact that the Raiders would have a respectable temporary home in the AlamoDome are increasing speculation that the Raiders may be seriously considering a move to Texas.  Red supports the idea as Texas is clearly large enough to support 3 NFL teams and anything that would eat into the Cowboys fan base (the Texans get little love in SA) is okay with Red.

Red’s NFL Picks – Wildcard Weekend

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It’s Wacky Wildcard Weekend time and Red is excited – even though he will miss the Texans game to watch a high school soccer tournament.

Red Rates Himself – For week 17 Red was 1-5. Only the OTNA’s came through for Red. Red remembers something about diminishing marginal return from his Econ 101 class. For the Season 53-43. Not even a particularly good record in the AL West.

Your Best Wildcard Pick of the Week: Seahawks over Vikings. Red wasn’t the only prognosticator stunned by the Seahawks dismemberment of the Cardinals on Sunday. One expected to see body parts randomly strewn over the turf of the University of Phoenix Stadium (the stadium oddly named after a university with no football team) after the game. But the Cards have a bye week to recover and regroup. Red doesn’t think the Seahawks will make it to the Superb Owl but he does think that they can handle the Vikings on the road. The rubric Red typically follows for his post-season picks is “Quality Wins” – meaning wins over teams that themselves had winning records. In some cases Red will chalk up a QW for a win over an 8-8 team that had a difficult schedule or lost several close games.   The Seahawks have 3 QWs – all coming after Thanksgiving which adds extra weight. They beat the Stealers, Vikings and Cardinals – the last two in very convincing butt-whipping fashion. The Vikings have 2 QWs over the Packers and the Chiefs both by 7 points or less. That and the head to head 38-7 thumping they suffered at the hands of the Seahawks in Week 13, make the Seahawks Red’s overwhelming favorite to win this week. Seattle 20 Minnesota 13.

Your Really Darn Good Wildcard Pick of the Week: Packers over OTNAs. The Packers, to put it mildly, did not rebound well from the shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals (who were in turn – oh damn it, just read the previous prediction) as they lost the division to a decent Vikings team in Week 17. Red boldly pronounced last week that the Packers needed to win to go anywhere in the playoffs. But now, he realizes that the Pack really needs to have its back up against the wall with the guns of the firing squad aimed at their huddle in order to really focus and deal with a team that they should beat – like the OTNAs. The Packers come in with 3 QWs over the Seahawks, Chiefs (back when everyone was beating the Chiefs apparently) and Vikings – but two of those wins were in Weeks 2 and 3. Since Thanksgiving, the Pack has only managed middling wins against the weak sisters and hasn’t come close to beating a decent team since pummeling the Vikings in Week 11. The OTNAs have a big ZERO QWs and their best win was a 35-25 victory over the 8-8 Bills. They also have an inexcusable loss to the division doormat Cowboys. Red hopes that the moribund Packer offense can remember where the end zone is located on Sunday.  Green Bay 35 Landover, Md. 29.

Your So-So Wildcard Pick of the Week: Bengals over Stealers. A really tough rubber match that is hard to call with uncertainty in the line ups. Is Dalton the back-up for this one and will he play if McCarron falters? The Stealers will score points and the Bengals have to keep up. Red would avoid this one if he could, but that is not how Red rolls. Stealers have 3 QWs over the Cardinals, Bengals and Broncos. Bengals racked up 3 QWs against Stealers, Seahawks and Chiefs (ahem!). Throw out the offsetting QWs and Red gives an oh-so-slight edge to the Stealers – but is picking the Bengals anyway.    Cincinnati 28 Pittsburgh 27.

You’re Probably Lame-Ass Wildcard Pick of the Week: Chiefs over Texans. Red may have been right when picking the Texans to win this season –but it clearly escapes his memory right now. Of late, picking the Texans to lose has hurt Red’s average, but Red is willing to take one for the team. The last playoff meeting between a Houston team and the Chiefs was on January 16, 1994. The similarities (and differences) abound. The Oilers had started the season 1-4, only to rebound with 11 straight wins (including a Christmas Day win over the dynastic 49ers) and secure a division championship. This year both the Chiefs (1-5) and Texans (2-5) had rocky starts before going on runs to the playoffs. The Oilers had a feared defense under the always overrated Buddy Ryan. The Texans defense under Romeo Crenel may not be feared, but it may be better than the 94 Oilers. The Chiefs had Marcus Allen, but neither team had a first class running game. With Joe Montana and Warren Moon at the respective helms, both teams relied heavily on a passing attack to move the ball. The game on Saturday will feature two exemplars of the “caretaker quarterback” that actually proves successful a remarkable amount of the time. With Alex Smith and Brian Hoyer taking snaps, neither team figures to light it up through the air. The 94 game was a defensive struggle with the Oilers leading 10-7 going into the 4th quarter. Then both teams started scoring. The Chiefs won 28-20 when Montana led the team to three 4th quarter touchdowns – something that was supposed to be impossible against a Buddy Ryan defense. But in retrospect, the 9 sacks of Moon and 7 fumbles (2 lost) probably made the difference in this one. Red looks for a similar result on Saturday. The teams will thrust and parry to little effect until late in this one and then it will be a wild affair to the finish. On the QW front, the Texans have 2 with wins over the Bengals and Jets, as do the Chiefs with wins over the Stealers and Broncos. But neither team has played anyone in over a month. The Chiefs have an excellent wide-out and tight end in Maclin and Kelce. The Texans have the better receiver in Hopkins and nothing at tight end. Neither team has much of a running game. The Texans have the edge on defense, but the Chiefs are no slouch in that category. The Texans have proven they can score points against the weak sisters of the league. Can they move the ball on a good defense? Probably enough to keep it respectable, but not enough to win. One big play will probably decide this one. Kansas City 20 Houston 17.