Category Archives: Red’s NFL Picks

Red’s 2017 NFL Picks

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Rather than swamp readers with the whole shebang of NFL picks in one post, this season Red will pick each division over the next week or so and then wrap up before the season starts with his post-season picks and award winners.  But first the bad news.

2016 Season Recap

Red’s NFC division champions were the Giants, Panthers, Cardinals and Vikings. Wild cards were the Buccaneers and Packers.  Of that motley crew only the Packers and Giants were playing in January.  2 out of 6 in the playoffs.  Ugh!

Red’s AFC division champions were the Patriots, Raiders, Jaguars (Ha!), and Bengals.  Wild cards were the Jets (spit take) and Broncos.  Patriots and Raiders came through for another 2 out of 6 in the playoffs. Barf!

Red’s 4 out of 12 is his worst season ever. That’s at least 10 Hail Marys, alms to the poor and giving up Diet Dr. Pepper for the season.

Red did pick Khalil Mack as Defensive Player of the Year – but how hard was that?

First up this season – the AFC East.

NFL Overtime Rules Written by Morons

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The Patriots may have deserved to win the Superb Owl yesterday, but we will never know because of the NFL’s bizarre and absurd overtime rules.  No other major sport has a true sudden death overtime.  The NBA plays 5 minute OT periods until someone wins.  Baseball plays full innings until someone wins.  The NHL does have sudden death but the game changes from offense to defense very quickly and possession is won in a face off.  It would be a very unusual circumstance for each team to not have possession of the puck in OT.  Soccer plays two 15 minute overtime periods followed by a shootout if needed.   It is absurd that after a full NFL season and the playoffs, that the championship can be so influenced by a coin toss.  Yes, the team winning the toss has to score a touchdown, but it is a ridiculous system that does not allow each team a shot on offense.  The college system has its flaws but at least has some elements of fairness.

Red’s NFL Picks – Superb Owl

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NFL Picks 2016 – Superb Owl

It’s very hard to imagine how big a deal the Superb Owl is until it comes to your town. Red happened to be in downtown Houston last Thursday night and walked over to Discovery Green.  DG is a wonderful little urban park on the east side of downtown across from the massive George R. Brown Convention Center.  For the Superb Owl, DG, the GRB and the surrounding area have been turned in ground zero for all things NFL and SB in particular.  At 9:30 on a Thursday night more than a week before the game, there were probably 75 workers hard at it.  Fox has built what appears to be a 10,000 sq. ft. temporary studio on the main lawn. There is a massive temporary café/bar, a full concert stage, a huge NASA display, light show in the pond and other attractions.  That doesn’t include the other four square blocks all tented up for music, food, conviviality and possibly lots of drinking.  Or the entire “NFL Experience” set up inside GRB.  There are also massive projections on nearby buildings and of course the mandatory barriers, metal detectors and road closings that accompany any such event nowadays.  Red estimates that somewhere between $15-25 million has been spent in this one area of downtown alone and maybe much more than that.  Who knows what is going on at NRG park – maybe just a game.

Red was a dismal 0-2 in the Conference Championship games. He was hoping against hope that the Stealers would show up and not terribly surprised when they did not. So, we have the Patriots in the SB again. Can we hear a vigorous “Ho Hum” from everybody?  Red thought so.

Red was taken aback, however, by the Packers pathetic performance. We knew the Falcons offense was fearsome, but what has made them a true contender for the Lombardi Trophy is the turnaround from the front 7 on defense.  That should have ultimately been expected with Dan Quinn in charge, but the arrival of a top caliber defense is ahead of schedule.

With apologies to Ray Magliozzi, Red has to say “Well, it’s happened again, you’ve wasted another perfectly good NFL season, reading Red’s bad NFL weekly picks.” Why stop now?

Your Last Pick of the Week – Falcons over Patriots

They used to say that defense and rushing wins championships.   They used to say that cheaters never win, too. Bill Bellicheat and Tom Brady put an end to such nonsense. Don’t misunderstand, the Pats have had respectable defenses and managed to turn stiffs like LaGarrette Blount (aka the Fat Pig), Antowain Smith and Stevan Ridley into reasonable facsimiles of real NFL running backs for brief periods of time.  Inter-column quiz:  Who is the Patriots all-time leading rusher?  Had to think didn’t you?  It’s Sam “Bam” Cunningham for Christ sakes – who was with the team for 9 seasons and gained all of 5453 yards.  He also had more career fumbles than touchdowns.  There is not a single running back in Patriots history headed for the Hall of Fame or even the Hall of Very Good.  The Hall of Mediocrity might accept one or two, but that’s it.  This season is no different.  BB has figured out that you really don’t need a superstar back if your offensive scheme is good enough.  Just plug in a horse that you use to exploit defensive weakness and go on about your business.

The Pats defense is another story. It was the best defense in the only category that matters – scoring.  The Pats allowed fewer points than any other team in the league and that kept them in a few games when the offense was not clicking – a very few.

But let’s look at who the Pats beat this season. They beat 3 playoff teams (if you include the Texans as a playoff team – a questionable proposition).  They beat the Stealers, Dolphins (twice) and the Texans.  Their two losses were to the Bills (sans Brady) and the Seahawks.  They also had very few close games – posting only four (4) one-score victories. Two of those were in the first two weeks of the season when they beat the Cards and Dolphins in close contests. The later beat the Jets and Ravens by one touchdown each.  Other than that, they either lost or pretty much blew out their opponents.  Defense was the key to cruising to victory most weeks.  Only the Cards, Dolphins, Bills, Seahawks and Ravens could score more than 20 points and only the Seahawks scored more than 30.

Meanwhile in Georgia, the Falcons offense was keyed by a successful running tandem all season. Freeman and Coleman were the best backfield all season.  Good for two guys who were mid round picks in 2014 and 2015.  That is not to say that the Falcons’ incredible passing attack should be overlooked.  It is simply incredible how Julio Jones and his posse can tear up opposing secondaries.  But the respect for the running game that opposing defenses must show, makes the passing attack all that much more fearsome.  How fearsome?  The Falcons failed to score at least 23 points only once all season in an inexplicable loss to the Eagles after a 10-day layoff.  They scored more than 30 points 11 times and more than 40 points 5 times.  They lost 3 games by a total of 13 points with only the bizarre loss to the Eagles coming by more than one score.  The analyst could say, the Falcons will find a way to lose a close game.  The analyst should shut up.

The Falcons defense is not on par with the Pats. But it has steadily improved all season and clearly was in full stride against the Packers.  That performance must have built a new level of confidence.  They will need it against the Pats.

The Pats are favored by 3 and the over/under is around 58. Red really likes the Falcons and 3 points.  If they lose, it will be close.  If you can get 3.5 points, take it and run.  Red wonders a bit about the O/U.  SB’s can be notoriously slow starting on the offensive front.  Ah, screw it.  Go with the over and hope for an exciting game that doesn’t last 4 hours.  See you next season. Atlanta 33 New England 28.

Red’s NFL Picks – Conference Championships

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NFL Picks 2016 – Conference Championships

The dream of an all-Texas Superb Owl to be played in Texas died a harsh death last weekend. It wasn’t much of a dream anyway and it keeps alive the curious streak of the home team never hosting the big game.

The Texans never had a chance against the Patriots – although they did keep it close for a whole half as Red predicted. Red almost believed for an instant after Brady’s second interception.

Meanwhile in Arlington, the Cowboys must be sitting around muttering “I could have been somebody, I could have been a contender.” The problem is that Aaron Rodgers is somebody and is always a contender. But now Jerry’s Boys will be spending the off-season wondering what could have been and not making any real changes to a lineup that had a magical year – a year that is not likely to be repeated any time soon.  The Cowboys defense has real problems and the rookie phenoms – may just be rookie phenoms.  As Red has said, he is perfectly okay with the Cowboys winning one playoff game every decade. So, sorry Jerry, the win for the 10’s is already in the books.  Talk to me in 2021.

For Round 2, Red was a spectacular 4-0 and made good on both Sure Bets with the Stealers covering and the under paying off.   Good things come to those who wait and wait and wait and . . .

Prime Time Pick of the Week – Stealers smack Patriots.    About the only good thing to come out of the Texans’ defeat on Saturday was that the defense beat the everloving crap out of Tom Brady.  Even Mrs. Red was getting excited when Chris Covington body slammed TB and Whitney Mercilus dragged him to the ground.  Brady took more hard shots in that game than he usually does in a month.  The Pats running game was also exposed.  Brady won the game with repeated strikes downfield against  Texans defensive backs who always seemed to be clueless as to where the ball was going.  That won’t happen against the Stealers.  Brady will face even more pressure (the Stealers had 30 sacks in the last 8 games). And the Pats are not likely to run against the Stealers any better than they did against the Texans.  But the real question is for the Stealers.  Can they score against the Pats league-leading defense?  The mid-season matchup tells us – well, not much.  The Stealers didn’t have Ben and Pats still had Gronk. Landry Jones had to chuck it up 47 times that day in a losing effort for the Stealers – which is something Ben almost never does. LaGarrette “Fat Pig” Blount rushed for 127 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the Pats to victory.  That does not happen Sunday.  The Pats also will not be bailed out by Dion Lewis – who had more touchdowns on Sunday than in the rest of his career going back to 2011.  Red doesn’t know how the Stealers are going to win, but he knows they are going to win and thus, cover the spread whatever it is.  The Stealers are getting 5.5 just in case you are interested.  The O/U is at 51.  Which strikes Red as way too high. Take the under here.   Pittsburgh 21 New England 20.

Sure Bet Pick of the Week – Packers pelt Falcons.  Aaron Rodgers – great family man that he is – will always have a place in Red’s heart.  Driving a stake through the heart of the Cowboys’ season will do that for you.  And the Packs’ reward is to be a 4.5 point dog on the road against the Falcons.  The Falcons looked like a well-oiled machine on Saturday – with the big exception of letting Devin Hester run wild on kick and punt returns.  Without Hester, the game was not even close.  With him, the game wasn’t that close.  The Pack has no one like Hester.  Although Ty Montgomery’s brilliant play during the Lions-Packers game showed that he is the thinking man’s kick returner.  One of the Lions’ kickoff was dying at about the Green Bay 3 yard line.  But since it was near the sideline.  TM stepped out of bounds and fell on the ball (still in bounds).  Under the very complicated NFL kicking rules, that made the ball out of bounds and put the Packers at the 40 yard line.  It pays to know the very complicated NFL kicking rules.  Red has been duly impressed by the Falcons this season.  He has picked them repeatedly in the past – only to be disappointed.  The long-suffering Falcons fans are not disappointed – well not yet anyway.  It’s a little too good to be true and reality is coming home.  The first meeting of these teams at mid-season was a complete shootout with Rodgers and Ryan combining for 7 TD passes, 534 yards and no INTs. Expect about the same on Sunday.  The oddsmakers sure do.  The O/U on this one is a whopping 61.5.  Red sees them getting there.  The Packers defense is suspect merely by virtue of having Dom Capers in charge.  The Falcons defenses has toughened up considerably over the last month of the season, but these are the Packers after all.  This one could last 4:15 and conceivably goes to OT.  Okay, Red calls OT.  Take the Pack and the points and the over. Green Bay 35 Atlanta 29.

And of course, that gives us a Packers-Stealers Superb Owl.  Who doesn’t want to see that?

Red’s NFL Picks – Playoffs Round 2

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Red has now seen every Texans playoff victory in person as he had the good sense to be in New Mexico for last year’s 30-0 buttwhipping at the hand of the Chiefs. He would dearly love to be in Arlington on Sunday afternoon but will have to settle for hearing about the Cowboys game after playing golf (or possibly at the turn).

For Wildcard Week Red was 2-2. Only Red would pick a team that hasn’t won a playoff game on the road since 1957.  That would be the Lions if you weren’t paying attention.  Picking the Giants turned out to be a less than smart move.  Red will not dis A-Rodg again.  Onward and sideways.

Sure Bet Pick of the Week – Stealers slap Chiefs.    What in God’s name was Ben still doing in the game on the second-to-last play of the game?  The Stealers were lucky that BR was not seriously injured (and by Rotlessburger standards that means not in a coma or on life support in the ICU).   The Stealers simply manhandled an inferior Dolphins squad as expected.  The Chiefs will be a different story, but the ending looks the same.  As one site puts it, the Stealers “look mean as hell” right now.  Look at former Stealers linebacker and current assistant coach Joey Porter who was arrested for assault when he attached a doorman at a bar and topped that off with an aggravated assault charge when he got huffy with an arresting officer. When did the Chiefs last have a coach in a bar fight much less getting arrested?  The Stealers are getting 2 in most lines.  If that goes to 3, jump in with both feet.  The O/U at 51.5 is somewhat surprising.  Red likes the under here.  Enjoy your NFL game of the week.   Pittsburgh 27 Kansas City 20.

Underdog Pick of the Week – Falcons f#©k Seahawks. Matt “No One is Going to Mistake Me for Johnny Unitas” Ryan has one thing going for him this weekend.  He knows how to beat the Seahawks in the playoffs.  That is exactly what he did in 2012. Unfortunately for Mr. Mr. that’s the only thing he knows how to do.  That’s his only postseason win ever. We do have a bit of recent history here as the Seahawks beat the Falcons (Red loves him and all-avian playoff matchup) 26-24 back in October.  But Ryan threw 3 touchdowns against a much better secondary than the Seahawks are putting on the field right now.  The Seahawks missing Earl Thomas is like Red going hog hunting with a BB gun instead of his 7mm mag.   You might remember that just last week, Red made fun of Seahawks running back Thomas “Lou” Rawls and his season total of 349 yards rushing. After torching the Lions for 4332 yards or roughly 2.5 miles, Red takes it  all back.  All Hail, Mr. Rawls – last seen still shedding Lions tacklers somewhere near Butte, Montana.  The Seahawks best hail Mr. Rawls because it’s hard to see them winning this one without a similar performance this week. , Red wants some of what Mr. Rawls is smoking or at least a contact high.  Detroit 21 Seattle 20.

 

Texas Franchise Pick of the Week – Packers pucker up Cowboys.   Speaking of teams playing “mean as hell” consider the Packers.  They lose their best non-quarterback player and big time playmaker (J. Nelson) to a cheapshot and still cruise to an easy win over the best all around defense in the league.  Nelson claims he is going to play Sunday – fractured ribs and all.  The Pack still have the best player in the game right now in Aaron Rodgers – and here Red must again eat crow.  Rodgers was phenomenal last week.  He should fare just as well against  Red once pulled an interstitial muscle in his rib cage mowing the lawn and couldn’t get out of bed for a week.  Red doesn’t belong in the NFL.  Jordy Nelson does.  Meanwhile in the Metroplex, the Cowboys have pretty much stuffed all comers not named the New York Football Giants this season with a rookie QB at the helm.  A rookie QB that was the 113th quarterback taken in the 2016 draft –  okay he was really the 15th.  And to think it could have been Johnny Football.  But Red digresses.  Rookie quarterbacks typically have a hard time in playoff games.  Dom Capers is no dumbass and he will make life difficult for Dak Prescott.  Red predicts that before the game is over – Tony Romo attempts to ride to the rescue and fails miserably. Green Bay 37 Arlington 20.

 

Prime Time Pick of the Week – Patriots punish Texans.   Okay by now you have heard that this is the biggest point spread since David v. Goliath (Red had David at 5-1 just in case you were wondering).  Only around six times in the modern NFL era has a playoff team been disfavored by such a large spread.  One of those times was in 1979 when the Oilers were huge dogs to the Chargers because they were missing Dante Pastorini, Earl Campbell and Kenny Burroughs.  Guess what, they blasted Air Coryell and advanced to the AFC Championship game.  It’s probably the second biggest upset in modern NFL Playoff history.  Unfortunately for Houston fans it seems like no such surprise is in the works Saturday night.  The Texans are 1-7 lifetime against the Patriots.  Red was at the only Texans victory in the last game of the 2009 season and the Texans barely won even though by halftime Tom Brady was sipping a Crown and Coke in a Barcalounger on the sideline and some guy named Brian Hoyer was under center for the Pats.  It still took a fumble recovery in the end zone by Bernard Pollard and three 4th quarter touchdowns for the Texans to pull off a win in what was a meaningless game for the Pats.  It’s not like the Texans haven’t been competitive against the Pats at times.  The Lost 34-31 in December of 2013 at Foxboro and in the first meeting ever on a Sunday night in 2003, Brady had to rally the Pats to tie the game with 40 seconds left before winning 23-20 in OT.  But in the NFL, all of that is ancient history.  The Pats have simply demolished the Texans the last two seasons.  Are the Texans a different team than the one that got slobberknockered in September.  Yes.  But so are the Patriots – they have that guy Tom Brady – you know the one who sells magic pajamas (see above) and has a garage full of trophies. The Texans only win with at least 17 points scored or set up by defense and special teams, one long TD drive and one 75+ yard TD.  If those things happen – and they won’t – the Texans have a chance.  All that said, Red expects the Texans defense to keep it close for a while.  But if it goes according to form, Red will be able to switch over and watch Have Gun Will Travel reruns by the middle of the third quarter.  There are worse ways to spend a Saturday night.  New England 24 Houston 11.

 

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 17

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NFL Picks 2016 – week 17

In Week 16, Red was 3-3 – which is a minor triumph this season. Red is 36-40-2 for the season.  Aaargh!

Sure Bet Pick of the Week – Cardinals crumple Rams. The Cards have been dealt and both of these teams folded.  The Rams actually exceeded expectations and a 5-11 season would not be viewed as an enormous disappointment.  What is disappointing is having the 32nd ranked offense in the 32 team NFL.  Need more disappointment – How about Jared Goff’s 61.7 QB rating? – which makes Case Keenum’s 76.4 look positively marvelous.  Or Todd Gurley’s 3.2 yard per carry average?  Bright spots?  The fantasy freaks who went long on Kenny Britt have to be happy with his 1000 yards and 5 TDs. And the Rams defense doesn’t suck.  But that’s it.   Meanwhile in the desert, the Cards are a major disappointment (we’re using that word a lot here).  No one expected the Cardinals to have a losing record – nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition either.  Giving up 6 is a lot to ask, but the Cards will cover.  Red also likes the over at 40.5 – but just barely.  Arizona 25 Los Angeles 16.

Underdog Pick of the Week – Chargers challenge Chiefs. Red is putting this category to rest after this week.  And what better way to do that than with the team that has consistently underperformed all season.  The Chargers are a playoff team that can’t finish off a game.  The Chargers have lost 5 games in which they seemed to be cruising to victory until the bottom fell out.  That started with the first game of the season when the Chief rallied (a word Red really hates) from 17 points down in the 4th quarter to win 33-27.  That set the tone for the entire Chargers season as they continued to tank it.  Revenge is sweet this week and the Chargers send the Chiefs off to a 5th seed for Wildcard Weekend.  Red just loves that he is picking a team in the midst of a 4 game losing streak.  Arizona 17 Seattle 16.

Rivalry Game Pick of the Week – Giants gouge OTNAs. To rehash from earlier this season – this rivalry rocks.  NFL Network ranks it as the No. 1 rivalry of all time, SI has it at No. 4.  The Giants lead the series 86-81-2 making it one of the most competitive rivalries in league history. The first game, however, was not – as the Giant crushed the Eagles 56-0 at the Polo Grounds in 1933.  Over the years, game have been played at the Polo Grounds, Baker Bowl, Philadelphia Municipal Stadium, Connie Mack Stadium, Yankee Stadium, Franklin Field, Veterans Stadium, Yale Bowl, Giants Stadium, and Lincoln Financial Field.  What is surprising is that the Giants played at Yankee Stadium until 1973 before getting a stadium of their own at the Meadowlands.  The teams have met 4 times in the post-season with the Giants winning in 1981 and after the 2000 season and the Eagles winning after the 2006 and 2008 seasons.  Red expects a shootout on Sunday.  This is your NFL game of the week. New Jersey 35 Philadelphia 31.

Texas Franchise Pick of the Week – Texans tackle Titans.   This game could have been a contender.  But it’s a bum, especially with the soon-to-be-great Marcus Mariota out.  The Texans use this one as a warmup for their 4th playoff game in six years at NRG, which – despite what the bloviators on the radio say – doesn’t suck. Houston 22 Tennessee 20.

Prime Time Pick of the Week – Packers pummel Lions.   This is a real prime time game with many marbles on the line.  All the marbles in fact.  This is winner take all time.  Since starting 4-6, the Pack has turned it on winning 5 in a row.  Meanwhile, the Lions have tanked in December.  This could have been a laugher for them, but it is now do or die.  They die.  Sadly, the weather for Green Bay seems downright pleasant with a game time temperature in the 30’s and no real chance of snow. Green Bay 35 Detroit 27.

Shit Bowl Pick of the Week –Bills butt Jets. This week features the rare all-New York (sort of) Shit Bowl.  Here are two teams that deserve SB status in the final week of what has been a really exceptional SB year.  Almost every week (thanks largely to the Browns and the NFC North)  there have been truly awful games for Red to choose from.  This week is no exception with the fabulously mediocre 7-8 Bills on the road to meet the horrendously disappointing 4-11 Jets.  Those nursing hangovers will be well advised to avoid watching this beastly bowel battle, lest ye be tempted to pick up that stray empty soldier, break it over the coffee table and jab it into your femoral artery to ease the pain of truly awful football. Orchard Park 3 New Jersey 2.

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 16

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Fifteen weeks in and Red is still sucking gas. What’s prognosticator to do?  Open a bottle of Chianti, put the pot roast on the stove and settle in for some more disappointment. Another 2-4 in Week 15 aint getting it done. Red is 35-41-2 for the season.  This week will be 6-0 for sure or perhaps 0-6.  Whatever, Merry Christmas!

Sure Bet Pick of the Week –Titans topple Jaguars. The Titans are playing as well as any highly mediocre team in the league with playoff pretensions right now.  And unlike most of the other pretenders, the Titans actually control their own destiny.  Two wins and they are in.  The scheduling geniuses may look like – well, geniuses – if the Titans win and the Colts lose this week, or if the Titans and Texans both win, or if the Titans, Texans and Colts all lose.  If any of those scenarios come to pass, then it will be winner take on New Year’s Day in Nashville.   For the first time that Red can remember, a game between the old Houston franchise (miss ya’ blue) and the new Houston franchise (see definition of mediocrity in your Webster’s Collegiate) might actually mean something – and Red has to root for that.  Meanwhile, the Jags are coming off tough loss to Texans and firing of Head Coach Gus Bradley (or something like that).  Sometimes hanging a coach in effigy is a cathartic experience for the team and they rally around the survivors.  Not this week.  Mariota torches the Jags and the starters get some rest.  Take the Titans giving up 4 and the over at 43.   Tennessee 33 Jacksonville 16.

Underdog Pick of the Week – Cardinals Crush Seahawks. Red is starting to wonder about the wisdom of this category.  Trying to pick an underdog every week has definitely hurt the bottom line.  But Red is never one to shrink from a challenge – run away screaming like a 8 year old boy perhaps, but not to shrink.  Cardinals are playing for pride at this point.  Seahawks are playing to secure 2d seed.  A loss could drop them to 4th seed if Falcons and Lions both win –possibly resulting in an undesirable wildcard game against the always dangerous in the playoffs Giants. So it’s not like the Seahawks can rest up down the stretch.  Cardinals were in the playoff hunt before losing 4 of the last 5 – mostly to decent teams.  There is no reason to pick them to win on the road, but here goes.  Arizona 17 Seattle 16.

Rivalry Game Pick of the Week – Vikings vanquish Packers. Red picked the Vikings to win this division and Red is going down with the longboat.  As rivalries go, this one is not bad.  112 meetings with the Packers holding a 89-51-2 edge.  And the teams have split their two playoff games with the Vikings winning after the 2004 season and the Packers taking it home in 2012.  The proximity of our northern neighbors and the chance for a late season blizzard game adds to the promise here.  With any luck at all it’s a miserable Christmas Eve in northern Wisconsin.  As you know, Red likes nothing more than to sit by the fire and watch large, fast men play in the snow. Minnesota 13 Green Bay 10.

Texas Franchise Pick of the Week – Cowboys clobber Lions.   Tony Who? Arlington 24 Detroit 20.

Prime Time Pick of the Week – Texans take down Bengals.   Red was present at NRG on a cold Sunday afternoon for the beginning of the Tom Savage era.  Sometimes a strange thing happens when the struggling and seemingly incompetent starter is unceremoniously yanked.  Sometimes the offensive line starts blocking, and the wide receivers start getting open and the running backs pick it up a notch and the referee’s calls start going your way.  That’s exactly what happened on Sunday and TS took advantage leading the Texans to a rousing come from behind victory before the not-so-faithful on the South Loop.  But before we get too excited – remember that it was against the hapless Jaguars.  Episode 2 of “Tom Savage, Texans Quarterback” will be on NFL Network Christmas Eve.  Red will probably be eating his special holiday tenderloin with a stuffed baked potato and a delightful salad surrounded by kith and kin while the drama unfolds.  Let him know how it turns out. Houston 24 Cincinnati 13.

Shit Bowl Pick of the Week –Rams ransack 49ers. This week features the rare all-California Shit Bowl.  Throw in the added plus of a team with a recently fired coach (Mr. Mediocrity himself – Jeff Fischer) and the prospect of a soon to be fired coach (Mr. Send Him Back to College – Chip Kelly) and you have the makings of a possibly entertaining Shit Bowl this week.  Oh, who is Red kidding?  He’s just excited that he doesn’t have to pick a Browns game this week.  So don’t climb up on the roof to fix your Christmas lights at halftime of this beastly bowel battle, you might decide to stay up there and baby, it’s cold outside.  Rams rally to pull one out – pun intended. Los Angeles 27 Santa Clara 24.

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 15

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Red was so depressed after Week 13 that he could hardly brush the chips off his sweater and get off the couch. He had to take Week 14 off because of that and the press of other crap coming down the pipe.  Anyhow, 2-4 in Week 13 dug that hole just a little deeper. Red is a sorry 33-37-2.  Down but not quite yet out.

Sure Bet Pick of the Week –Texans tackle Jaguars. After saving the season with a win over the Colts last week, the Texans have the bye week that is otherwise known as having the Jaguars come to town.  Texans now have the playoffs squarely in their sights and the Jags have the offseason and cheeseburgers in mind.  The Texans running game is probably too much for the Jags 4-3 to handle and expect the T-men to grind it out on the ground and control the ball for most of the game.  It won’t be exciting but it will be better than turning the game over to BO and the pathetic excuse for a passing attack that is the Texans offense.  If the Texans aren’t tight, then the crowd could be headed for the exits to celebrate in the parking lot with about 12 minutes left.  If the Texans are tight, it will get ugly at NRG.  Red will bet the South 40 on the Texans giving up 6 against a team that seems to have their bags packed and ready to go.  And whatever the under is – Red likes it.  Houston 20 Jacksonville 7.

Underdog Pick of the Week – Broncos bust Patriots. The defending champions aint going down without a fight.  Broncos draw a line in the sand and dare the Pats to cross.  But not for a first down.  This will be one mean and ugly tussle.  Keep the body bags handy boys. Denver 21 New England 20.

Rivalry Game Pick of the Week – Raiders ransack Chargers. Derek Carr cements his claim to an MVP nod after these two old rivals meet.  This one dates back to the very beginnings of the AFL in 1960 and they have played twice every season since with the Raiders holding a 62-50-2 edge and having won the only playoff game in the series in January of 1981. Raiders just have too much offensive firepower for the Chargers (no slackers either) to keep pace. Both defenses will be sucking gas by halftime.  Will this be the last time that San Diego and Oakland meet?  And who can really get excited about a matchup between yet another team from LA and the Las Vegas Raiders?   Oakland 45 San Diego 37.

Texas Franchise Pick of the Week – Buccaneers beat back Cowboys.   Has the league figured out Dak Prescott just enough to make life fairly difficult for the Rookie phenom?  If a relatively bruised and battered Giants defense can hold you to 7 points and those 7 points came on a blown defensive play, then just how good is your formerly high-octane offense?  Probably not that good.  Meanwhile, the seafaring criminals have developed a pretty defense if you ignore their No. 21 ranking against the run.  But that does not account for the way that the Bucs have been playing for 5 weeks.  Look for a couple of big plays as Jameis connects with Mike “I won a Heisman Trophy for Johnny F. Football” Evans.  Two big TDs to Evans sink the Boys ship for a second week in a row and get all of Cowboy Nation wondering if Dak was a flash in pan and calling Romo, Romo, where for art thou Romo?   Tampa Bay 21 Arlington 10.

Prime Time Pick of the Week – OTNAs outplay Panther.   Red was raised on OTNA hate – back when  he was a Cowboys fan and they were still the OTNAs but Red was not offended by their name. Red still hate him some OTNA (and now some Cowboy), but has to accept reality this week while still wondering what the hell happened to the Panthers who simply could not lose last season.  Red aint got a clue. Landover, MD 29 Carolina 14.

Shit Bowl Pick of the Week –Browns best Bills. Red  is picking the Browns to win.  Red is picking the Browns to win.  Red is picking the Browns to win.  Red is picking the Browns to win.  Say it as much as you like, it still doesn’t make sense.  Duct tape all objects weighing under 5 pounds in place during the pre-game, lest ye be tempted to hurl them at your big 70” baby when you have been tricked into watched this turgid turd tussle. Cleveland 3 Orchard Park 0.

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 13

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Red just can’t quite get out of the hole he dug for himself in September. Red maintained by going 3-3 in Week 12 which puts Red at 31-33-2 for the season. He may demand a recount.

Sure Bet Pick of the Week –OTNAs overtake Cardinals. At the beginning of the season, the Cards talked about “stacking wins” presumably meaning having a couple of nice 4 to 6 game winning streaks.  Right now the Cards have been reduced to talking about “stacking first downs.” Meanwhile in Maryland, the OTNAs are putting together an offensive powerhouse with Kirk Cousins at the helm (words Red never thought he would write).  KC has 20 touchdowns and an outside shot at a 4500 yard season.  The Kelley-Jones tandem at RB is mediocre but will suffice when you have 3 receivers who might catch 80 and surpass 900 yards on the season – especially when that group does not include DeSean Jackson (who doesn’t lag too far behind in yards and TDs).  The Cards have the remarkable David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald and squat after that. Yet somehow the Cards are favored by 2.5.  The consensus O/U is a hefty 50.5 but that doesn’t scare Red too bigly.  Take the OTNAs and the points and the over if you must.   Landover, Md. 33 Arizona 24.

Underdog Pick of the Week – Buccaneers belt Chargers. The Bucs still are in the thick of a playoff race with the Falcons in their division and other Wild Card contenders.  The Chargers are going nowhere in the incredible AFC West and have no realistic change of a Wild Card berth.  Yet the professional prognosticators are fairly unanimous in calling this one for the Chargers.  Go figure.  It might be that others are catching on to Red’s long time fixation on the triple-reverse time zone, inverse coast hex and think that the Bucs can’t win bigly on the West Coast.  Red factors that in, but he also factors in having something to play for in December and gives the edge ever so slightly to the Bucs in a match-up of equals.  But he is predicting a shoot-out that could go to OT. Tampa Bay 36 San Diego 33.

Rivalry Game Pick of the Week – Jets jettison Colts. Not much in the old rivalry closet this week. These teams have played each other a respectable 72 including 4 post-season games.  The Colts lead 41-31 but with the Jets having won the biggest one of them all in Superb Owl III.  The Jets have had the Colts number winning 4 of the last 5 dating back to 2009 (another era in NFL terms) and won the 17-16 playoff “thriller” on the road after 2010 season.  Red predicts that Luck is the next Ryan Fitzpatrick – that is a smart QB from an academically challenging school that has early success and morphs into a caretaker QB as his career winds down.  The old caretaker wins this one but not too bigly. New Jersey 24 Indianapolis 14.

Texas Franchise Pick of the Week – Packers pick on Texans.  For just a moment last week, Red thought the Chargers were going to find a way to blow an 11-point lead with 41 seconds to go in the game.  But alas, these were the Texans and while Red has seen offenses suck before, the Texans offense is (with apologies to Homer Simpson) “the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked.”  Sorry, Red is under a court order to use that phrase at least once every season.  The Pack is back, way back, but on the way back, unless it packs its bags and heads back backwards.  And that’s just the Dom Capers-led defense.  But remember, the Chargers were supposed to have a subpar defense that was borderline godawful at stopping the run. And the Texans scored how many points last week?  Game time temps are expected to be in the low 30s with sleet and snow.  Maybe A-Rodg’s pee will freeze before it hits the bucket in his sideline tent. But Red digresses.  Please God, let this be a blizzard game so that the Texans will have one last excuse for a pitiful offensive performance.  Sadly, even at 6-6, the Texans are a good bet to win the AFC South, get a home playoff game (Ka-Ching) and get stomped bigly by the Dolphins or Chiefs or Broncos or Stealers or Ravens or . . . ??? in front of the not-so-faithful. Green Back 21 Houston 11.

Prime Time Pick of the Week – Panthers punch Seahawks.  And speaking of division leaders with crappy offenses – one cannot ignore the stench emanating from the Seahawks sideline.  The current leading rusher for the Hawks is (drum roll please) C.J. Prosise with 172 yards and 1 touchdown.  With a running game like that you end up scoring 5 points.  With the falloff of the defensive unit formerly known as the “Legion”, the Hawks are going to have trouble down the stretch.  If not for playing in the god-awful NFC West, the Hawks would be lucky to be .500 and scrambling for another playoff berth with a 7-9 record.  Everyone but everyone is picking the Hawks to win this one.  Red will look like a genius when the Panthers win bigly.  Pete the Cheat still makes the playoffs for one last season, but only by default and only for one game. Carolina 35 Seattle 14.

Shit Bowl Pick of the Week – 49ers foul Bears. Red has pretty much avoided Chip Kelly’s disaster on the West Coast this season because he kind of likes the Chipster while thinking that he should return to being the great college football coach that he is.  Lord knows he won’t take much of a pay cut when Nebraska or the like come calling.  In the meantime, Red is really proud to present one of the shittiest of the Shit Bowls in recent memory.  Really, who hasn’t been waiting all season for the Brian Hoyer – Colin Kaepernick show down of sub-prime, fan-hated NFL quarterbacks.  It will be an exciting race to see which of these two giants of the gridiron will move past 1500 yards passing for the season first.  Throw in a little Jordan Howard and Carlos Hyde at running back and you have the makings of a good afternoon nap on the couch in Red’s man cave (also known as the broom closet). Even Alshon Jeffery has managed to delight his fantasy football backers with all of 1 – count ‘em 1 – touchdown this season.  Red will be hanging the Christmas lights instead of watching this beastly bowel battle lest he string up a noose with those lights and bigly hang himself from the eaves instead. Santa Clara 10 Chicago 9.

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 12

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The week off did Red a world of good as he went 4-2 in Week 11 and has for the moment stopped digging. Red is now 28-30-2 for the season. Good enough for a win in the Electoral College.  As a special this week, Red will pick all 3 Thanksgiving Day games and squeeze them into the rubric one way or another.

Sure Bet Pick of the Week – Vikings vanquish Lions. All 10 Lions games so far this season have been decided by a touchdown or less.  While that sounds incredible, it is somewhat misleading because by Red’s inexact calculus at least 57.6% of NFL games in any given season are decided by 7 points or less.  Which means that the Lions are due for a blowout game one way or another.  Given the Lions tendency this season to fall behind and then mount a furious rally to win or make it close, Red should call this one as a close game.  But the Lions are too likely to be distraught over Calvin Johnson’s third place finish on Dancing With the Stars Tuesday night to have that incredible rally in them on Thursday. Take the Vikings and 3 points and the over at 42. Minnesota 35 Detroit 10.

Underdog Pick of the Week – Cardinals can Falcons. Red can’t help but think that the Cardinals don’t suck as much as they apparently – well – suck.  Falcons are there for the taking, but only if Carson Palmer can stay upright for more than 30 snaps.   Arizona 25 Atlanta 23.

Rivalry Game Pick of the Week – Cowboys collapse OTNAs. This one is pretty good as NFL rivalries go.  Back in the day there was hardly a more heated divisional rivalry than this one.  Sports Illustrated called in the greatest NFL rivalry of all time.  Red doesn’t go that far but he does remembers some fairly classic games.  For example, Billy Kilmer taking down Roger Staubach in overtime at RFK on a brisk November afternoon in the first NFL game Red ever saw in person.  Or the Clint Longley “Mad Bomber” game on Thanksgiving in 1974 might have been the most interesting NFL game Red ever watched as the Boys rallied from a 16-3 deficit behind their unheralded third string quarterback. Or the 1979 season ending game where the winner went to the playoffs and the loser went home and the CBs scored twice in the last 5 minutes to send the OTNAs packing.  Or the SCAB game in 1987 where a team of replacements beat the scumbag Cowboy players including Danny White, Randy White, Tony Dorsett and Ed Jones during the strike.  And for the record, that was the game after which Red declared that he was no longer a Cowboys fan after 27 years of loyal service. The list goes on.  The Cowboys lead the all-time  series 67-42-2.  However, the Redskins have won the only two playoff games after the 1972 and 1982 seasons. The Boys are just playing too good to lose this one on Thanksgiving – although that would make for another incredible game in the long list of incredible games in this rivalry. Arlington 31 Landover, MD 30.

Texas Franchise Pick of the Week – Chargers catcall Texans. Red has some experience in coming back from a trip to Mexico.  Red figures he has visited our sunny southern neighbor somewhere in the vicinity of 35 times and at least 1/3 of the time, didn’t feel quite up to snuff for at least a week afterwards.  And that’s only the times he didn’t have ceviche.  He has eradicated those episodes from the memory banks.  The Texans are coming off a tough loss to the Raiders at Estadio Azteca on Monday night.  So combine a short week with an overabundance of tacos, tortillas and tequila and you can fill in the rest.  Meanwhile the Chargers are coming to Texas after a week off.  The Chargers have found new and imaginative ways to lose games this season blowing a 17 point 4th quarter lead against the Chiefs and fumbling twice in the last 80 seconds against the Colts.  That and a missed field goal or two and the Chargers are fighting for the AFC West divisional title – and what a fight that is.  The Chargers may be the best 4-6 team in NFL history.  The Texans may be the worst 6-4 team in NFL history.  They certainly occupy those positions this season.  Red weeps as he calls it San Diego 28 Houston 24.

Prime Time Pick of the Week – Stealers over Colts.   Will Andrew Luck play or will the nation get to witness the glory that is Scott Tolzien under center.  Red hopes that Luck plays, as that underrated QB on Thanksgiving night thing (see Mad Bomber above) sometimes works out in unexpected ways.  Red also hopes to be well into diabetic coma by the time this one comes on Thanksgiving night.  Let him know how it comes out. Pittsburgh 21 Indianapolis 3.

Shit Bowl Pick of the Week – Eagles Edge Packers. Red can’t resist the chance to put the Packers in this week’s Shit Bowl because the Packers are in fact reallyshitty this season.  Of all the underperforming teams in the league, the Packers are the underperformiest. Yeah, that’s not a word.  And this isn’t a game that should be the only option for the true football junkie trying to hang on to the Thanksgiving weekend high of maximum football overdose.  Red thinks the Packers have packed it in, while the Eagles have to be thinking “We’ve got a chance.”  Keep thinking that all the way to the offseason guys.  Take one last injection of gravy and stuff that last piece of stale pecan pie in your mouth before tuning in to watch this execrable excrement exhibition. Philadelphia 6 Green Bay 3.