Tag Archives: Texas Football

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 1

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Week 1 Picks 2016

Red has a new format this year for his weekly six-pack of picks. Every week Red will feature a Sure Bet of the Week, Underdog Pick of the Week, Rivalry Game Pick of the Week, Texas Franchise Pick of the Week, Prime Time Pick of the Week, and of course the Shit Bowl Pick of the Week. Red may add some additional picks as the season goes on such as the Must Win Game of the Week or perhaps the Big Ass Game of the Week.  Stay tuned.

Sure Bet Pick of the Week – Panthers over Broncos.  Red is not particularly fond of having the Superb Owl rematch (in the seasons where that is possible) in the first game of the season – but he certainly understands why the NFL wants to kick off the season in fine form.  Unfortunately, this game doesn’t look to keep the fans in Des Moines interested for very long and only the true addict of the professional sports crack that is the NFL will be watching come the 4th quarter. The Panthers played about as bad a game as possible last February.  They have to be looking forward for a small shot at redemption.  They have a clean shot on Thursday and they take down the defending champions rather handily.  Red thinks that Carolina minus 3 is a lock and that the over at 41.5 is even better.  Carolina 35 Denver 20.  

Underdog Pick of the Week – Jaguars over Packers. Jags are Red’s moving team this season.  Moving from the outhouse to the playoffs in Red’s humble estimation.  This is a statement game for Coach Gus Bradley. It’s his 4th season and probably getting close to the make or break point.  It will be the first sellout crowd for the Jags since October of 2014. That may be a mixed blessing as the sell out may be due to Packers fans making the trip to N. Florida for a chance to see the beloved green and gold.  However, it will be hot and the hotter the better for the Jaguars. It’s hard to believe, but the Packers have played in just two 90+ degree games in their 97 year history.  The Pack wilts before it fades to black on Sunday. Jacksonville 20 Green Bay 17.

Rivalry Game of the Week – Giants over Cowboys. This is the kind of game the Cowboys always seem to win.  A young untested quarterback takes over and leads the team to a come-from-behind victory.  Remember Clint Longley, Gary Hogeboom and even a young Tony Romo himself.  Last season, hwoever, it was tired old Tony Romo leading the ‘Boys to an season opening win against the soon to be hapless Giants.  Not this year, as Romo is out for this one, and the next one, and the next one . . .  But more than Romo being out most of last season, the true cause of the Cowboys’ ills was the return to form of the defense.  After a record-setting season of utter putridness in 2013, the Cowboys defense was nothing short of outstanding in the run to the playoffs in 2014.  But they regressed mightily last year causing only 11 turnovers and generally getting walked on.  Now missing DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory, the Big D looks to be unable to put any serious pressure on a pocket passer like Eli.  Sunday afternoon he gets to stand back and pick ‘em apart. New Jersey 37 Arlington 13.

Texas Franchise Pick of the Week – Texans over Bears. Lucky for Bill-O the Clown that the Texans start off with a game against the bumbling Bears.  There are a lot of questions to be answered for the Texans with a new quarterback, new tailback, new receivers and tight ends.  Unfortunately for the Texans it looks like pretty much the same crappy old offensive line and that will be the deciding factor for the Texans most of the season.  I don’t care how good Lamar Miller looked last season, you can’t run through non-existent gaps.  Osweiler better learn to get rid of the ball quickly.  The defense is real and will keep the Texans in a lot of games to the very end this season. Houston 23 Chicago 8.

Prime Time Pick of the Week – Cardinals over Patriots.  The Patriots need Tom Brady like a flower needs the rain, like a dog needs a bone, like a soldier needs a rifle, like a man needs a woman (or another man as the case may be), like a preacher needs the collection plate, like an old man needs his false teeth, like a crack ho needs a rock, like Red needs to give this one a rest. Arizona 31 New England 17.

Shit Bowl Pick of the Week – Colts over Lions. Talk about two teams that underperformed last season.  The Colts season effectively ended before Christmas when they lost to the Texans at home for the first time ever.  Yes, they rallied to win the last two games against the hapless Dolphins and the battered Titans, but they lost control of their fate by losing the 16-10 snoozefest to the Texans in Week 15.  That capped off a 3 game losing streak that took the Colts from almost certainly securing a playoff spot – to on the outside looking in for a change.  The Colts are likely no better this season.  Red has them going 8-8 and finishing at the bottom of the heap in the AFC South.  Meanwhile, no team had a harder fall than the Lions in 2015.  By Week 7 they had already lost 6 games, more than they lost in the entire 2014 season.  They did rally to finish 6-2 over the second half of the season and did win in Green Bay for the first time in 25 years, but other than that 2015 was pretty much a complete write-off for Matt Stafford and friends.  Things look worse this season without Megatron and with Stafford clearly established as a third tier talent.  The Colts better enjoy this one, because it won’t get any easier.  If you are still watching this turgid turd tussle in the second half, make sure your seat belt is fastened, your seat back and tray table are in their full upright and locked position.  It’s going to be a rough landing. Indianapolis 29 Detroit 10,

 

Red’s Texas College Football Game of the Week

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Red travels to the greater Midland-Odessa area (Odessa really) for this week’s match-up between the Sul Ross State Lobos and the Falcons of UT-Permian Basin.  Okay, Red has to ‘fess up.  He didn’t even know that UTPB had a football program until last week, but ever since figuring that out he has been especially anxious to feature the Falcons squad in this season’s first of Red’s Texas College Football GOTW.

The SRSU football program has been mired in controversy in recent years. In 2014, the entire football staff was fired over allegations of abuse, misconduct and general naughtiness.  Red doesn’t make light of this at all as there were claims that female students were being coerced into more than friendly relations with recruits.   The program has taken a few years to recover going 2-8 in 2015 and 3-7 last season.  This season 4-6 might be in reach.  Reach for the stars boys – or at least reach for the chance of finishing in the middle of the conference pack.

Red might be forgiven for his ignorance of Falcon football as this is the school’s first season.  And the Falcons have a first time head coach in Justin Carrigan who does have experience at Midwestern State and Tarleton.  The Falcons may have built in rivals in Angelo State, West Texas A&M and Eastern New Mexico all of which are a reasonable road trip away from Odessa.  Unfortunately, Red’s insider knowledge of the program is somewhat hindered – mostly by the fact that the Falcon’s website is down – not that Red could have garnered much from that anyway.  But Red is pleased to honor Texas’ newest college football program in the first GOTW this season.

Red is hard-pressed to really make an intelligent call on this one, but when has that ever stopped him.   SRSU 27 UTPB 13.

 

Texas Has Education Priorities Straight – Millions for Football. Everything Else – Not so Much.

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The recent decision of the McKinney Independent School District to spend millions on a high school football stadium has drawn nation-wide attention.  After months of controversy and debate, more than two-thirds of McKinney voters approved spending $63 million as part of a $220 million bond package on a show-piece high school football stadium.  Yes, that’s $63 million.  By way of imperfect and time-challenged contrast, the Astrodome cost only $35 million to build in 1965 – that would be around $375 million today.

But the 12,000 seat McKinney stadium will hardly be alone in the on-going arms race to build bigger and swankier high school football stadiums in wealthy Texas suburbs.  Allen recently completed a $60 million stadium that seats 18,000 and is located about 3 miles from where McKinney will build its sports temple.  Another 12,000 seat edifice is under construction in Katy with a projected cost of more than $62 million.  The first $100 million high-school stadium cannot be far down the road.

For comparison, the $63 million  (financed by school bonds)  would be about 30% of the annual operating budget of McKinney ISD which was about $206 million for the 2015-16 school year.  Supporters claim that the stadium will be a source of local pride and bring tournaments and other business to the area.  Opponents look upon it as a case of completely misplaced priorities.   Red appreciates that, like it or not, football is king in Texas, but does it have to sit on a $63 million throne?    For the record, McKinney High School was 3-7 overall and 1-6 in district in 2015.  McKinney Boyd was 6-5, but did not make the playoffs, and McKinney North was 6-4 and also missed the playoffs. Even $63 million can’t buy you a winning football team.

Texans Make Bold Play in Free Agency

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The Houston Texans went long in the free agent market yesterday – signing Denver Broncos “backup” quarterback Brock Osweiler and Miami Dolphins running back Lamar Miller.   The moves are intended to fill two gaping holes in the Texans offense with current QB Brian Hoyer being widely viewed as a capable second stringer at best and the backfield being open following the release of running back Arian Foster.

Red rates the Miller move as a solid decision to pick up a proven running back who has averaged 4.6 yards per carry on weak to mediocre Dolphins teams.   Miller also comes in at age 25 (for next season) without too much wear and tear.  He has 638 carries in his 4 year career.  The last two seasons, Miller also showed himself as a capable receiver averaging over 40 catches.  He should be good enough to keep the job for 3-4 seasons if used wisely.  Miller has said he wants 20 touches a game.  If the Texans are smart, it will be about 15 and Alfred Blue will continue to get work in relief.  The $26 million – 4 year deal for LM is not a budget buster.   On the proverbial scale, Red weighs this one in at 7.5.

The Osweiler deal is another story.  The Texans busted open the bank with a 4 year – $72 million contract for the unproven BO.  The sports talk empire in Houston was naturally abuzz over the move with the local sports wags mostly buying the company line.  Red has to break with Charlie Palilo, Red’s preferred drive-time radio man, on this one.  The Texans have placed at least 10 of the dozen eggs in the Osweiler basket and Red thinks the bottom may not be as strong as beleaguered Texans GM Rick Smith calculates.   For those interested, here is what $72 million buys these days.  If BO turns out to be a less injury-prone Matt Schaub 2.0, then the deal is probably just on the high side of okay.  But for fans expecting Osweiler to take the Texans to the next level (which would be making it to the AFC Championship game), Red thinks probably not.  Which means for ol’ Billy Bob Texansfan, this move is likely to disappoint.  Safe to say, however, that Rick Smith and Coach Bill O’Brian have staked their careers in Houston on this move.

 

Today in Texas History – February 25

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From the Annals of the Cowboys – In 1989, Jerry Jones, the new owner of the Dallas Cowboys, fired head coach Tom Landry after a 29-year career.   Jones made Cowboys General Manager Tex Schramm accompany him to Landry’s vacation home in Lakeway.  Schramm characterized it as, “a very difficult meeting.  It’s very, very sad.  It’s tough when you break a relationship you’ve had for 29 years.”  Schramm stood solemnly and red-eyed at a news conference where JJ announced the firing of Landry later that evening at the team’s Valley Ranch headquarters. Landry’s recent results had been well below his standards with the Cowboys failing to make the playoffs in 4 of his last 5 seasons.  Landry had indicated that he wanted to coach into the 90’s if he wasn’t fired. Jones for his part wasted no time in kicking Landry to the curb having only finalized his purchase of the iconic franchise two days before firing Landry.  Jones was adamant that he would not have bought the team unless he could bring his long-time friend and former University of Miami coach Jimmy Johnson on to lead the Cowboys.  Landry ended his coaching  career as the third-winningest coach in NFL history behind only George Halas and Don Shula, with a record of 270-178-6.  He ranks only behind Bill Bellicheat with 5 trips to the SuperBowl as a head coach.

For his part, Red had already given up his 27 year fanship of the Cowboys during the strike year of 1987 when Cowboys quarterback Danny White led the movement to break the players union and Dallas fans thumbed their noses at the players they formerly idolized.

A&M Coaches Pressured Trainer to Clear Injured Players

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Sports Illustrated reports that former Texas A&M trainer Karl Kapchinski claims that series of Aggie Football Head Coaches repeatedly pressured him to clear players to return to action when they were still recovering from injuries.  This would likely not be news except that SI has a pretty good reputation for accurate reporting and . . . it is just so easy to believe – especially when some coach’s million dollar plus salary is on the line.  Weigh all that money against the fact that some 20 year old who probably won’t play pro football might just have to limp for the rest of his life or suffer a debilitating brain injury, and Red guesses the decision is fairly easy for the less scrupulous of college coaches.

Kapchinski said there were times when he regretted clearing players under pressure from the coach because it resulted in players incurring additional injuries.

“There’s been a lot of great quality athletic trainers that have subsequently lost their jobs because they stood up for the players or were doing the right thing,” Kapchinski said.

Kapchinski worked at Texas A&M for 31 years after graduating from the school in 1979. He was fired suddenly in 2013 at age 56, and has filed a lawsuit against A&M claiming he was removed because of his age.

Red’s NFL Picks – Second Round

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“You’re not that damn important.”

Brian Mitchell – referring to RGIII.

But really, who is?

Red Rates Himself – For Wildcard Weekend Red was 3-1 making up somewhat for the late season slide into high mediocrity. Red would have been 4-0 but for the Bengals total meltdown at the end of the game. His best call was on the Texans/Chiefs debacle where Red claimed “one big play will probably decide this one.” And damn if Red wasn’t right. He just didn’t know that it would be on the opening kickoff. At least Red had the good sense to keep his other commitments and not waste $500 and 6 hours of his time watching the Texans’ ship go down without a fight.

For the season Red is now 56-44. Red likes easy percentage calculations.

And Red knows the NFL calls this the Divisional Round or some such nonsense. It is not that, because we obviously have Wildcard teams still playing. This is Round Two or as Red prefers the Second Round. Take your pick.

Your Damnation Pick of the Week: Patriots over Chiefs. Red has to stick with the Patriots (his preseason AFC Champ) because that’s the way this thing works. And given his spotty record on picking the playoff teams this year (more on that later) he needs the added oomph of picking the Superb Owl correctly which is something that happens about once a decade. Given that, all signs point to the Chiefs – except the sign that says Foxboro City Limits. Patriots don’t typically lose in the playoffs in F’town. In the Brady Era, they are 14-3 in home playoff games. In this business, we call that a trend. More of a portent in Red’s humble opinion. This game turns on the Pats defense. If they hold the Chiefs to 20 or under, the odds of the Pats winning the game are incalculable. I cannot imagine the Pats not scoring at least 21 on any team left in the playoffs. At playoff time, the Pats either score around 15 and lose or more than 20 and win. I think this is one very tight and the Chiefs could easily win this game with even a decent offensive performance. Red likes the Chiefs plus 5 if you can get it. New England 24 Kansas City 19.

Your DamnYankees Pick of the Week: Packers over Cardinals. Cardinals picked a bad time to fall apart and lose key players. Packers fell apart early and often while shedding good players like the working girls at the Men’s Club. Again this is a damn close call between two teams that could win the Superb Owl with just a little luck. Red won’t overly retread his Quality Wins rubric. Suffice it to say that the Packers come in with 3 (discounted for early season wins) while the Cards also have 3 QWs over the Pack, Vikings and Seahawks. Despite this trend of beating our northernmost NFL teams, Red again has to play out the skein all the way out and since he picked the Packers to win it all this year, he has no choice but to go against his gut and pick the Pack. But he wouldn’t bet on this game if you held a hot poker to his pecker. Green Bay 27 Arizona 24.

Your Double Damn Pick of the Week: Panthers over Seahawks. The Panthers don’t strike Red as a team that is going to play tight in a situation where everyone might expect them to not be able to excrete an aspirin. Cam stays loose and since the Panthers have to rightfully believe that they can beat anyone why should they fear the Seahawks. These teams are fairly similar both featuring offenses powered by a steady running game backed up by mobile quarterbacks who are mediocre in the passing game and tough defenses. Admittedly, the Hawks have a better defense, but have they really faced anyone like CN all season? Only in practice. And they were lucky to escape with their lives when facing a decent Vikings defense last week. At some point CN is going to have to take this game over and make some plays against a defense that will be head-hunting. If he survives the gauntlet then the Panthers can win this one going away. Everyone but Red is calling this the game of the week. Red thinks the Panthers expose the Hawks more than the Vikings did last week. Take the Panthers giving up a single point. Carolina 37 Seattle 13.

You’re Damn, Damn, Damn Pick of the Week: Stealers over Broncos. PMS (that’s Peyton Manning Starting for those who have not been paying attention in class) is old and brittle and all but washed up as a premier QB. Ben Rotlessburger is not quite as old and still tough as the steak served at El Rio in Monterrey. Red never underestimates the ability of brilliant Gary Kubiak to outcoach himself and blow it in a big game. He has a defense that can win this game if he will just let them, but he won’t and the Broncos are going to turn it over at least 3 times. The Stealers are playing on borrowed time and glad of it. They make the most of it this week. Red likes the Stealers plus 7 – he likes it a lot. He may like the over at 38.5 even more. Pittsburgh 28 Denver 23.

The San Antonio Raiders?

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With Oakland seemingly licking up the scraps from the NFL Owner’s table, the fate of the Oakland Raiders is in doubt.  When Raiders President Mark Davis visited San Antonio last year, many viewed it as a publicity stunt to show the league that the Raiders were serious about leaving Oakland and viewed San Antonio (wink, wink, nudge, nudge) as a possible destination.  But yesterday, the Raiders were left sucking hind tit when the owner’s committee recommended that the Rams move back to LA and give the Chargers the option of being included in the deal.  The committee also recommended that the league funnel $100 million towards the construction of a new stadium in Oakland.  But $100 million is a drop in the bleachers under current stadium construction budgets which typically exceed $1 billion.   The snub plus the fact that the Raiders have already purchased land in the San Antonio/Austin area, plus the fact that the Raiders would have a respectable temporary home in the AlamoDome are increasing speculation that the Raiders may be seriously considering a move to Texas.  Red supports the idea as Texas is clearly large enough to support 3 NFL teams and anything that would eat into the Cowboys fan base (the Texans get little love in SA) is okay with Red.

Red’s NFL Picks – Wildcard Weekend

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It’s Wacky Wildcard Weekend time and Red is excited – even though he will miss the Texans game to watch a high school soccer tournament.

Red Rates Himself – For week 17 Red was 1-5. Only the OTNA’s came through for Red. Red remembers something about diminishing marginal return from his Econ 101 class. For the Season 53-43. Not even a particularly good record in the AL West.

Your Best Wildcard Pick of the Week: Seahawks over Vikings. Red wasn’t the only prognosticator stunned by the Seahawks dismemberment of the Cardinals on Sunday. One expected to see body parts randomly strewn over the turf of the University of Phoenix Stadium (the stadium oddly named after a university with no football team) after the game. But the Cards have a bye week to recover and regroup. Red doesn’t think the Seahawks will make it to the Superb Owl but he does think that they can handle the Vikings on the road. The rubric Red typically follows for his post-season picks is “Quality Wins” – meaning wins over teams that themselves had winning records. In some cases Red will chalk up a QW for a win over an 8-8 team that had a difficult schedule or lost several close games.   The Seahawks have 3 QWs – all coming after Thanksgiving which adds extra weight. They beat the Stealers, Vikings and Cardinals – the last two in very convincing butt-whipping fashion. The Vikings have 2 QWs over the Packers and the Chiefs both by 7 points or less. That and the head to head 38-7 thumping they suffered at the hands of the Seahawks in Week 13, make the Seahawks Red’s overwhelming favorite to win this week. Seattle 20 Minnesota 13.

Your Really Darn Good Wildcard Pick of the Week: Packers over OTNAs. The Packers, to put it mildly, did not rebound well from the shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals (who were in turn – oh damn it, just read the previous prediction) as they lost the division to a decent Vikings team in Week 17. Red boldly pronounced last week that the Packers needed to win to go anywhere in the playoffs. But now, he realizes that the Pack really needs to have its back up against the wall with the guns of the firing squad aimed at their huddle in order to really focus and deal with a team that they should beat – like the OTNAs. The Packers come in with 3 QWs over the Seahawks, Chiefs (back when everyone was beating the Chiefs apparently) and Vikings – but two of those wins were in Weeks 2 and 3. Since Thanksgiving, the Pack has only managed middling wins against the weak sisters and hasn’t come close to beating a decent team since pummeling the Vikings in Week 11. The OTNAs have a big ZERO QWs and their best win was a 35-25 victory over the 8-8 Bills. They also have an inexcusable loss to the division doormat Cowboys. Red hopes that the moribund Packer offense can remember where the end zone is located on Sunday.  Green Bay 35 Landover, Md. 29.

Your So-So Wildcard Pick of the Week: Bengals over Stealers. A really tough rubber match that is hard to call with uncertainty in the line ups. Is Dalton the back-up for this one and will he play if McCarron falters? The Stealers will score points and the Bengals have to keep up. Red would avoid this one if he could, but that is not how Red rolls. Stealers have 3 QWs over the Cardinals, Bengals and Broncos. Bengals racked up 3 QWs against Stealers, Seahawks and Chiefs (ahem!). Throw out the offsetting QWs and Red gives an oh-so-slight edge to the Stealers – but is picking the Bengals anyway.    Cincinnati 28 Pittsburgh 27.

You’re Probably Lame-Ass Wildcard Pick of the Week: Chiefs over Texans. Red may have been right when picking the Texans to win this season –but it clearly escapes his memory right now. Of late, picking the Texans to lose has hurt Red’s average, but Red is willing to take one for the team. The last playoff meeting between a Houston team and the Chiefs was on January 16, 1994. The similarities (and differences) abound. The Oilers had started the season 1-4, only to rebound with 11 straight wins (including a Christmas Day win over the dynastic 49ers) and secure a division championship. This year both the Chiefs (1-5) and Texans (2-5) had rocky starts before going on runs to the playoffs. The Oilers had a feared defense under the always overrated Buddy Ryan. The Texans defense under Romeo Crenel may not be feared, but it may be better than the 94 Oilers. The Chiefs had Marcus Allen, but neither team had a first class running game. With Joe Montana and Warren Moon at the respective helms, both teams relied heavily on a passing attack to move the ball. The game on Saturday will feature two exemplars of the “caretaker quarterback” that actually proves successful a remarkable amount of the time. With Alex Smith and Brian Hoyer taking snaps, neither team figures to light it up through the air. The 94 game was a defensive struggle with the Oilers leading 10-7 going into the 4th quarter. Then both teams started scoring. The Chiefs won 28-20 when Montana led the team to three 4th quarter touchdowns – something that was supposed to be impossible against a Buddy Ryan defense. But in retrospect, the 9 sacks of Moon and 7 fumbles (2 lost) probably made the difference in this one. Red looks for a similar result on Saturday. The teams will thrust and parry to little effect until late in this one and then it will be a wild affair to the finish. On the QW front, the Texans have 2 with wins over the Bengals and Jets, as do the Chiefs with wins over the Stealers and Broncos. But neither team has played anyone in over a month. The Chiefs have an excellent wide-out and tight end in Maclin and Kelce. The Texans have the better receiver in Hopkins and nothing at tight end. Neither team has much of a running game. The Texans have the edge on defense, but the Chiefs are no slouch in that category. The Texans have proven they can score points against the weak sisters of the league. Can they move the ball on a good defense? Probably enough to keep it respectable, but not enough to win. One big play will probably decide this one. Kansas City 20 Houston 17.

 

Let’s Compare our NFL Teams

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As readers know, Red complains every year about the Cowboys getting all the press and most significantly national TV exposure – while the Houston Texans languish in the media doldrums and typically receive only the obligatory 1 or 2 national TV games each season.   So let’s look at the records of the two Texas teams over the last 14 years since the Texans arrived on the scene in 2002.

Overall Record:  Texans are 97-127, Cowboys are 118-106.

Playoff Appearances:  Texans 3, Cowboys 5.

Playoff Record:  Texans 2-2,  Cowboys 2-5.  Neither team has advanced past second round.

Head to Head:  Texans 1, Cowboys 2.

Okay, so Red has to admit that the Cowboys have the edge in all categories except percentage of playoff wins.  But the overall edge is not that great and the overall win/loss numbers are skewed by two abhorrent seasons in which the Texans went 2-14 and fired the head coach.  The difference clearly does not justify one team getting 10 national TV appearances this season and the other team getting 3 (including the late season flex to Sunday night of the Texans/Patriots game).