Category Archives: Red’s NFL Picks

Red’s NFL Preseason Picks

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Red’s 2016 NFL Predictions

Football season starts early in the Lone Star State. So early that Red has already been to not one but two high school games. And really, there is nothing quite as boring as your average high school football game with an average of 33 penalties, obnoxious parents, bad refs, inept play, mosquitos, surprisingly small crowds and a 7-0 final score.  The tedium of a high school game is rivaled only by a regular season NFL game with its endless TV timeouts, incredibly loud piped in bad 80’s music (at least at NRG), obnoxious beer-guzzling fans, sanitized atmosphere and overall complete lack of spectacle.  Such is the fan experience for the modern-day gladiation that is professional football.  Red can handle about 2 pro games a year – maybe 3 if his team makes the playoffs.

Other than that, Red is totally excited to bring you his pre-season predictions. Red’s record in this regard over the last decade or so is at least respectable. As usual, however, Red disclaims all responsibility for little juvenile delinquent Timmy stealing the grocery money and going down to his local bookie and putting it all on Red’s projected Superb Owl winner. Those foolish enough to wager on any professional sporting event that doesn’t involve equines running counter-clockwise around an oval track get exactly what they deserve.   So Danny, keep your grubby little felonious mitts out of Mom’s purse and leave this stuff to the pros who usually don’t do a whole lot better than Red.

2015 Season Recap

Red’s NFC division champions were the Eagles, Falcons, Seahawks and Panthers. Wild cards were the Rams and Vikings.  That’s 4 out of 6 in the playoffs.  Better than, “Meh!”

Red’s AFC division champions were the Patriots, Broncos, Colts and Bengals. Wild cards were the Chargers and Ravens.  That 3 out of 6 in the playoffs.  What can he say, Red blew it.

Red’s 7 out of 12 is unacceptable. He’ll run laps sometime in October.    Please not that Red did pick JJ Watt as Defensive Player of the Year. Big Whoop.

Red’s Annual Bitch.

 If you are a Cowboys fan, and may God have mercy on your soul if you are, thanks to the NFL scheduling gurus you need not worry about rushing home from church for the kickoff. This year is no exception.  Here is the National TV schedule for the team that went 4-12 last season.

Week 1       Giants Sunday Late Game

Week 3       Bears Sunday Night Game

Week 4       At 49ers Sunday Late Game

Week 5       Bengals Sunday Late Game

Week 6       At Packers Sunday Late Game

Week 8       Eagles Sunday Night Game

Week 10     At Stealers Sunday Late Game

Week 11     Redskins Thanksgiving

Week 12     At Vikings Thursday Night Game

Week 13     At Giants Sunday Night Game

Week 16     Lions Monday Night Game

Cowboys get 3 of the 16 Sunday Night games.  Plus 5 Sunday Late Games – only one of which (49ers) is time zone related. Plus a Monday Night and a Thursday Night appearance. And the traditional Thanksgiving day game

That is the standard minimum of 11 national TV appearances for a franchise that shat their collective pants last season. Only in corporate America does such incompetence get rewarded like this.

NFC East

Giants.  This division is more up for grabs than a deep ball from Peyton Manning.  Any team could win this thing.  But those darn statistics boys tell us that only one team can. It’s up to Uncle Red to figure that one out. The Cowboys will be starting a rookie quarterback and unproven rookie Ezekial Elliot at back.  It’s unclear what the OTNA’s are up to and the Eagles are still a mess.  Red is predicting that the NFC East will be this year’s PEFAPFD (that’s pathetic excuse for a professional football division for those who haven’t been paying attention).   Now that the Tom “Coach of the Walking Dead’ Coughlin is gone, look for new life in Northern Jersey.  Ben “No Relation to Bob” McAdoo takes over after serving as offensive coordinator.  The Giants probably had more money to spend than any other team in the off season and spend like drunken sailors they did. Additions of Janoris Jenkins and Eli Apple to join Dominique Rogers-Cromartie may give the Giants the best trio at corner in the league.  Name a better group.  Hmm, thought so.  And they won’t be short-handed with Jason Pierre Paul back for the entire season (no pun intended).  As seems to happen almost every other year now, a team with a losing record will advance to the playoffs.  New Jersey racks up a 5 game losing streak in the latter part of the season but still slides in under the door at 7-9 while the rest of the division goes home to kick the dog.

NFC South:

Panthers. Red usually picks the Falcons and we see how that usually works out. In a swift break from tradition, Red is going with the NFC Champion Panthers to repeat as division winners in 2015.  The Panthers were undoubtedly the best team in the NFL last season until the clock struck midnight, the offensive line turned back into a bunch of rats, the football became a slippery pumpkin and Cam Newton lost one of his glass cleats on the way out of the locker room only to have Von Miller stomp on it like the groom at a Jewish wedding. That’s how the Cinderella story usually ends.   This season Cam solidifies his spot as one of the two or three best all round quarterbacks.  And he has some more help with Kelvin Benjamin back.  The loss of Josh Norman will be painful, but Luke Kuechly anchors a more than good enough defense. It’s a bit of a comedown for Carolina to a 12-4 season but only a bit of a comedown as shall be seen.

NFC West: 

Cardinals.  Call Red a frontrunner if you must – it won’t hurt his feelings. Red didn’t believe in the Cardinals last year and he isn’t exactly drinking the Kool-Aid now.  The Cards may be just a Carson Palmer pulled groin away from a 7-9 season.  David Johnson is the hot topic now.  Look for a bit of a sophomore slump, but there 10-6 for Arizona probably should do it in the NFC West.

NFC North:

Vikings. Remember when NFL teams used to play at places with mysterious names like the Polo Grounds or Arrowhead Stadium or Candlestick Park or the Los Angeles Coliseum or the Cotton Bowl? Red is showing his age I suppose. The Vikings who once played at Metropolitan Stadium and then the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome are now leaving the not so cozy confines of the TCF Bank Stadium at the University of Minnesota for new digs.  Red would research the record for established teams breaking in new stadiums if he were that kind of guy.  Rest assured, he isn’t.  Exactly how does one get excited about a Sunday afternoon game at good old U.S. Bank Stadium.  Does that come with free checking and a carry-all?  Red is high on the real stuff and Teddy Bridgewater.  Touchdown Teddy will have a true break out season in 2016 and No. 1 pick Laquon Treadwell will provide a tempting target that was missing most of last season.  The real mystery man in the passing game may be Moritz Bohringer who was drafted in the 5th round out of the Schwabisch Hall Unicorns of the German Football League. He’s a long shot to make the team but he has size and speed enough if he can pick up the game.   Minnesota makes it look easy this season with a 13-3 record to win the division.

Update: Oops! Teddy’s gone for the season and Sam “Where’s My Head” Bradford is at the helm.  Red is going to cowboy up and ride the Vikings anyway because it’s too much trouble to rewrite this stuff.

 NFC Wildcards:

Buccaneers. Last season’s rookie of the year Jameis Winston has Red believing. Red also still believes in Santa Claus and alien abductions.  The running back combo of Doug Martin and Charles Sims could be the most potent in the NFC – after all they combined for 2700 yards of total offense last season. All that wasn’t good enough to avoid a four game losing streak that ended in Head Coach Lovie Smith and the entire defensive staff getting shit-canned.  Out with the old and in with the old as the Bucs promoted offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter (who has as close to a good porn star name as you are ever going to see on an NFL coaching staff unless Dick Butkiss comes back) to head coach.  JW will not have to learn a news system and the Bucs offense was certainly good enough to have a winning season last year.  On the other side, they brought in also shit-canned former Falcons head coach Mike Smith to run the defense.  It seems that defensive guys who get head coaching spots and fail almost always come back and do pretty damn well as defensive coordinators again. See, e.g., Dom Capers, Jack Del Rio and Wade Phillips.  Tampa Bay sneaks in at 9-7.

Packers. Really by default. Of course they are probably going to win the North with Bridgewater gone.  Of course Aaron Rodgers is going to be good.  Of course, someone at Lambeau Field will suffer frostbite in Week 17.  Of course, they will sell out every game.  Of course, Red will stop picking the Packers someday. Of course, today is not the day.  Green Bay does it again at 10-6.

AFC East

Patriots. This is typically where every year Red writes that it is cowardly and spineless to pick the Patriots year after year and then he goes and does just that. Each year Red thinks that this cannot last forever, that Tom Brady is finally going to look tired and old, that Belichick’s deal with Satan is up, and that the Pats will finally see the Jets or the Bills or the Dolphins gaining on them and not be able to finish. And each year Red is wrong in his mind but right on the pick.  New England whips the East yet again and goes 12-4.

AFC West

Raiders.  Really not excited about picking any team in this division.  Red likes Lativius and Lil’ brother Carr while continue to maintain that David Carr still sucks!  But maybe just maybe, this is the season after which the wretched and emaciated ghost of Al Davis can finally rest in peace with another division championship.  Ah, who is Red kidding? Dead Al will walk the corridors of NFL stadiums for all eternity searching for another championship for the Silver and Black.  Oakland surprises everyone with an outstanding 12-4 record.

AFC South:

Jaguars. Red likes to go out on a limb in this division. Red views this as possibly the most competitive division in the NFL in 2016.  Every team has a chance and every team has a big question mark.  The Texans have a revamped offense at the skill positions and a solid defense (if Clowney and Watt are healthy), but the offensive line is a complete disaster.  The Colts have question marks everywhere, but have the only truly experienced quarterback in the division.  The Titans are coming on strong, but is Mariota the franchise QB?  Red predicts you will have one team at 8-8 and three teams at 9-7 and have to go deep into the tie-breakers to pick a division winner.  Jacksonville wins with best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and allowed (Tiebreaker No. 7).  How’s that for exactitude.

AFC North

Bengals. Red distant cousin Andy “Red Rifle” Dalton can’t seem to catch a break. He was having a season that could have put him reach of an MVP award when he broke his thumb in Week 14.  Even so, they almost won a playoff game against the Stealers with A.J. McCarron under/behind center.    So it’s pretty much make or break time for this current iteration of the Bengals.  They have the weapons on offense with the Jeremy and Gio show.  Bengal have lost 8 straight playoff dating back to 1991 and have lost 5 straight in the last in the last 5 seasons – the only team in NFL history with such a record of playoff futility. Once again, Red is again picking a team that hasn’t won a playoff game in 25 years. Cincinnati 11-5.

AFC Wildcards

Jets. Meet the Jets, Greet the Jets, Step Right up and Beat the Jets.  But not too often. New Jersey 10-6.

Broncos.  The defending champion sometimes has a rough road to even returning to the playoffs. The Broncos may have it even tougher with new quarterback Trevor “the Ape Man” Siemian beating out tired old Marc Sanchez for the starting job. Gibbon his lack of experience, you might think Red is a fool to pick the Broncos.  But in Siemian, Red can siamang who knows how to use the offensive weapons he has. With an inexperienced starter, Kubiak won’t monkey around with trick plays.  Instead, he’ll find a way to macaque the defenses straight on. But do look for some langur passes to stretch the field.  And the Broncos defense is strong, so awesome that it might seem surrillis at times – and but rest assured it’s very real.  I could see the Chiefs getting this last spot but I lemur to Denver.  They are bonobo at least 10-6 and get into the mix.  The orangutan and blue is headed back to the playoffs and Broncos fans can gorilla crazy in January.  They won’t be the chimps, but it will be a good season.

Awards

NFL MVP – Andy Dalton – As noted, he might have won last year but for the untimely broken thumb.

Defensive Player of the Year – Khalil Mack – He would have won last year but for the force of nature that is JJ Watt

Offensive ROY – Will Fuller must learn that those things he has called hands are designed to catch a football. If he does that, he’s ROY.

Defensive ROY – Myles Jack – He’s got to stay on the field, but if he does he could put up some numbers that will get attention.

Comeback Player of the Year –  Jordy Nelson will be a fantasy favorite in 2016.

Coach of the Year – Gus Bradley – All he has to do is win.

Playoffs

NFC Championship Game – Panthers over Cardinals

AFC Championship Game – Bengals over Jaguars

Superb Owl – Panthers rout Bengals and claim the first Lombardi Trophy for one of the post-modern era expansion teams.

 

Red’s NFL Picks – Super Bowl

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“If it’s the ultimate game, how come they’re playing it again next year?”

Duane Thomas – former running back for the Cowboys, Chargers, Redskins and Hawaiians (WFL).

According to legend, Thomas was overwhelmingly selected as the MVP of Superb Owl VI after the Cowboys stomped on the Dolphins for their first of five wins. But because of DT’s prickly relations with the press (basically ignoring them all season), Larry Klein of Sport magazine which presented the award, named Roger Staubach instead.

Red Rates Himself – For Conference Championship Week Red was 2-0. For the season Red is now 60-46. What money goes to Vegas stays in Vegas – unless you have Red by your side.

Your Ultimate Pick of the Week: Panthers over Broncos. This should be an interesting game. Of course, Red thought that two years ago when you had an incredible Broncos offense facing a tremendous Seahawks defense. My how the worm has turned. This one features an anemic Broncos offense going up against a very good Panthers defense. And a superb Panthers offense facing off against a world-beating Broncos defense. In the modern NFL, Red typically bets on the offense.

First, let’s consider the Broncos – who have won 11 of their 14 victories by seven points or less in the regular season and playoffs which are the most such nail biters by any team in the Superb Owl era. In other words, the Broncos have been winning by the skin of their mouth guards no thanks to the offense. Even PMS was forced to acknowledge this. “Like I’ve said from the get-go, our defense has gotten us to this point. Let’s make that very clear.” On the positive front, the Broncos have five wins against playoff teams having beat the Chiefs, Vikings, Packers, Patriots and Bengals. That is nothing short of incredible in the modern NFL. With probably the best secondary in the league, the Broncos can afford to focus on stopping the run – something they will have to do against the Panthers who happen to have a very good running back playing under center. But then there is that fairly awful offense led by the aged PMS. Last game PMS launched a bomb (maybe 40 yards in the air) against the Pats just as if to say, “I can still do this.” Well maybe so, maybe no. The Broncos have to establish a semblance of a running game to keep this one close and keep PMS from being taken off the field in a basket. CJ Anderson must break at least 2 long runs (he had one against the Stealers and one against the Pats) and the Broncos need 120 yards of rushing. With that, the excellent Panthers defense will free up some space for PMS. If it’s a close game, don’t bet against the Broncos.

 

Moving on to the Panthers, there is almost nothing bad to say about this team beyond the ugly home uniforms. Even that won’t be a factor since they are the visiting team on Sunday. The only real mystery is how the Falcons managed to beat them. With a defense already good enough to win a bunch of games, the Panthers added a top-ranked offense cranking out 31 points per game and never looked back. The Panthers beat three playoff teams – Texans, Packers and OTNA’s – two of whom prevailed in the PEFAPFD that were the AFC South and NFC East this season. So until the playoffs, the Panthers had not really beaten down on a good team other than the Packers – but boy did they bring down the hammer in those games. But more than any other team except perhaps the Patriots, the success of the Panthers rests on the shoulders (and legs) of one man – MVP to be Cam Newton. The Panthers rushing game is what has kept defenses honest, but it is the extraordinary playmaking ability of CN that grabs the headlines. The only real question for the Panthers is will CN somehow wilt in the spotlight. That seems improbable given his demeanor, however, he was somewhat shaky the last time he played for a championship at Auburn. If there is a second set of shoulders here it would be the very capable ones of Greg Olsen. He is clearly the second-best TE in the game with a 14.3 yards per catch average based on his ability to catch and run.

The one stat that really sticks out as the difference between these teams is the +20 turnover margin for the Panthers as opposed to the -4 margin for the Broncos. It is probably weak-kneed, trite and lame to claim that the game will come down to turnovers – except that it probably will. I do expect the Broncos defense to acquit itself respectably in this game, but the likelihood is that the Panthers get a short field at least once and stop a promising Broncos drive at least once simply because of the way the ball bounces.

Red’s record on Superb Owl bets is admittedly spotty. The Panthers giving up 6 is a lot given the Broncos record of keeping games close. The 44.5 O/U is more attractive. Red likes the under here – which means the game probably is going to OT.

Final Prediction of the Season. Carolina 24 Denver 17.

 

Red’s NFL Picks – Conference Championships

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“The stash of games is getting low.”

Said many years ago by an old stoner friend of Red’s (who loved football almost as much as he liked the weed). Indeed, it is. Indeed, it is.

Red Rates Himself – For Round 2 of the Playoffs Red was 2-2. For the season Red is now 58-46. Omaha, Omaha.

Your Rocky Mountain High Pick of the Week: Broncos over Patriots. Red is breaking tradition and all the rules by picking the Broncos – even though the Patriots were his preseason AFC Champ. If this game were in Foxboro, Red would call it the other way. If you didn’t notice, every home team won last week and every game was a “one score” game in that one score by the losing team would have won or tied the game. Red expects the same this weekend. There will be no blowouts of the last teams standing but the home field advantage in this type of game is enormous. The Patriots strategy last week was to pretend like the solid front 7 of the Chiefs defense simply did not exist and throw, throw some more and keep throwing the entire game. There was a mere pretense of a running game – not surprising since the Pats were down to retired retread Steven Jackson as their main option in the backfield. No knock on Jackson who had a solid career but expecting him to come out of retirement a couple of weeks before the playoffs and rush for 100 yards is a little much even for the Pats. That strategy will not work against the best defense in the league. Miller, Ware, Jackson and Wolfe will be turned loose on Brady. Pressure will be the key. So what will Belicheat pull out of the hat this week in the face of the team who gets after the QB better than anyone else? If Red knew that he wouldn’t be working for a living.   Red expects the Broncos’ sputtering offense will need to score 24 to win and they can do that with smart game management and a decent game from the disappointing C.J. Anderson. The Broncos need at least 130 yards on the ground and the clock chewing that entails, if they are going to win. And PMS needs to not suck – a tall order right now. Red likes the Broncos plus 3, but the O/U at 44.5 scares him. Denver 24 New England 23.

Your Wildwood Weed Pick of the Week: Panthers over Cardinals. Cardinals surprised Red last week. He thought that the Packers wild finish would finish off a team that had to be wondering “What the Hell just happened?” But Larry Fitzgerald put an end to Red’s dream of correctly picking both Superb Owl teams – so now he hates them. On the other side, the Panthers have simply been the best team in the league all season. Notwithstanding the Seahawks furious comeback in the second half, what the Panthers did to the Hawks in the first half ought to be illegal. Red expects a similarly fast start to this one – again followed by a spirited rally that falls short. And although, Red would desperately like to see the first ever all Mountain Time Zone Superb Owl (with the only two teams that could possibly make that happen), he can’t go against a Carolina team that has bested all comers but one – and looked pretty snappy doing so. Red likes the Panthers giving up 3 and the over at 44.5.   Carolina 35 Arizona 29.

Red’s NFL Picks – Second Round

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“You’re not that damn important.”

Brian Mitchell – referring to RGIII.

But really, who is?

Red Rates Himself – For Wildcard Weekend Red was 3-1 making up somewhat for the late season slide into high mediocrity. Red would have been 4-0 but for the Bengals total meltdown at the end of the game. His best call was on the Texans/Chiefs debacle where Red claimed “one big play will probably decide this one.” And damn if Red wasn’t right. He just didn’t know that it would be on the opening kickoff. At least Red had the good sense to keep his other commitments and not waste $500 and 6 hours of his time watching the Texans’ ship go down without a fight.

For the season Red is now 56-44. Red likes easy percentage calculations.

And Red knows the NFL calls this the Divisional Round or some such nonsense. It is not that, because we obviously have Wildcard teams still playing. This is Round Two or as Red prefers the Second Round. Take your pick.

Your Damnation Pick of the Week: Patriots over Chiefs. Red has to stick with the Patriots (his preseason AFC Champ) because that’s the way this thing works. And given his spotty record on picking the playoff teams this year (more on that later) he needs the added oomph of picking the Superb Owl correctly which is something that happens about once a decade. Given that, all signs point to the Chiefs – except the sign that says Foxboro City Limits. Patriots don’t typically lose in the playoffs in F’town. In the Brady Era, they are 14-3 in home playoff games. In this business, we call that a trend. More of a portent in Red’s humble opinion. This game turns on the Pats defense. If they hold the Chiefs to 20 or under, the odds of the Pats winning the game are incalculable. I cannot imagine the Pats not scoring at least 21 on any team left in the playoffs. At playoff time, the Pats either score around 15 and lose or more than 20 and win. I think this is one very tight and the Chiefs could easily win this game with even a decent offensive performance. Red likes the Chiefs plus 5 if you can get it. New England 24 Kansas City 19.

Your DamnYankees Pick of the Week: Packers over Cardinals. Cardinals picked a bad time to fall apart and lose key players. Packers fell apart early and often while shedding good players like the working girls at the Men’s Club. Again this is a damn close call between two teams that could win the Superb Owl with just a little luck. Red won’t overly retread his Quality Wins rubric. Suffice it to say that the Packers come in with 3 (discounted for early season wins) while the Cards also have 3 QWs over the Pack, Vikings and Seahawks. Despite this trend of beating our northernmost NFL teams, Red again has to play out the skein all the way out and since he picked the Packers to win it all this year, he has no choice but to go against his gut and pick the Pack. But he wouldn’t bet on this game if you held a hot poker to his pecker. Green Bay 27 Arizona 24.

Your Double Damn Pick of the Week: Panthers over Seahawks. The Panthers don’t strike Red as a team that is going to play tight in a situation where everyone might expect them to not be able to excrete an aspirin. Cam stays loose and since the Panthers have to rightfully believe that they can beat anyone why should they fear the Seahawks. These teams are fairly similar both featuring offenses powered by a steady running game backed up by mobile quarterbacks who are mediocre in the passing game and tough defenses. Admittedly, the Hawks have a better defense, but have they really faced anyone like CN all season? Only in practice. And they were lucky to escape with their lives when facing a decent Vikings defense last week. At some point CN is going to have to take this game over and make some plays against a defense that will be head-hunting. If he survives the gauntlet then the Panthers can win this one going away. Everyone but Red is calling this the game of the week. Red thinks the Panthers expose the Hawks more than the Vikings did last week. Take the Panthers giving up a single point. Carolina 37 Seattle 13.

You’re Damn, Damn, Damn Pick of the Week: Stealers over Broncos. PMS (that’s Peyton Manning Starting for those who have not been paying attention in class) is old and brittle and all but washed up as a premier QB. Ben Rotlessburger is not quite as old and still tough as the steak served at El Rio in Monterrey. Red never underestimates the ability of brilliant Gary Kubiak to outcoach himself and blow it in a big game. He has a defense that can win this game if he will just let them, but he won’t and the Broncos are going to turn it over at least 3 times. The Stealers are playing on borrowed time and glad of it. They make the most of it this week. Red likes the Stealers plus 7 – he likes it a lot. He may like the over at 38.5 even more. Pittsburgh 28 Denver 23.

Red’s NFL Picks – Wildcard Weekend

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It’s Wacky Wildcard Weekend time and Red is excited – even though he will miss the Texans game to watch a high school soccer tournament.

Red Rates Himself – For week 17 Red was 1-5. Only the OTNA’s came through for Red. Red remembers something about diminishing marginal return from his Econ 101 class. For the Season 53-43. Not even a particularly good record in the AL West.

Your Best Wildcard Pick of the Week: Seahawks over Vikings. Red wasn’t the only prognosticator stunned by the Seahawks dismemberment of the Cardinals on Sunday. One expected to see body parts randomly strewn over the turf of the University of Phoenix Stadium (the stadium oddly named after a university with no football team) after the game. But the Cards have a bye week to recover and regroup. Red doesn’t think the Seahawks will make it to the Superb Owl but he does think that they can handle the Vikings on the road. The rubric Red typically follows for his post-season picks is “Quality Wins” – meaning wins over teams that themselves had winning records. In some cases Red will chalk up a QW for a win over an 8-8 team that had a difficult schedule or lost several close games.   The Seahawks have 3 QWs – all coming after Thanksgiving which adds extra weight. They beat the Stealers, Vikings and Cardinals – the last two in very convincing butt-whipping fashion. The Vikings have 2 QWs over the Packers and the Chiefs both by 7 points or less. That and the head to head 38-7 thumping they suffered at the hands of the Seahawks in Week 13, make the Seahawks Red’s overwhelming favorite to win this week. Seattle 20 Minnesota 13.

Your Really Darn Good Wildcard Pick of the Week: Packers over OTNAs. The Packers, to put it mildly, did not rebound well from the shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals (who were in turn – oh damn it, just read the previous prediction) as they lost the division to a decent Vikings team in Week 17. Red boldly pronounced last week that the Packers needed to win to go anywhere in the playoffs. But now, he realizes that the Pack really needs to have its back up against the wall with the guns of the firing squad aimed at their huddle in order to really focus and deal with a team that they should beat – like the OTNAs. The Packers come in with 3 QWs over the Seahawks, Chiefs (back when everyone was beating the Chiefs apparently) and Vikings – but two of those wins were in Weeks 2 and 3. Since Thanksgiving, the Pack has only managed middling wins against the weak sisters and hasn’t come close to beating a decent team since pummeling the Vikings in Week 11. The OTNAs have a big ZERO QWs and their best win was a 35-25 victory over the 8-8 Bills. They also have an inexcusable loss to the division doormat Cowboys. Red hopes that the moribund Packer offense can remember where the end zone is located on Sunday.  Green Bay 35 Landover, Md. 29.

Your So-So Wildcard Pick of the Week: Bengals over Stealers. A really tough rubber match that is hard to call with uncertainty in the line ups. Is Dalton the back-up for this one and will he play if McCarron falters? The Stealers will score points and the Bengals have to keep up. Red would avoid this one if he could, but that is not how Red rolls. Stealers have 3 QWs over the Cardinals, Bengals and Broncos. Bengals racked up 3 QWs against Stealers, Seahawks and Chiefs (ahem!). Throw out the offsetting QWs and Red gives an oh-so-slight edge to the Stealers – but is picking the Bengals anyway.    Cincinnati 28 Pittsburgh 27.

You’re Probably Lame-Ass Wildcard Pick of the Week: Chiefs over Texans. Red may have been right when picking the Texans to win this season –but it clearly escapes his memory right now. Of late, picking the Texans to lose has hurt Red’s average, but Red is willing to take one for the team. The last playoff meeting between a Houston team and the Chiefs was on January 16, 1994. The similarities (and differences) abound. The Oilers had started the season 1-4, only to rebound with 11 straight wins (including a Christmas Day win over the dynastic 49ers) and secure a division championship. This year both the Chiefs (1-5) and Texans (2-5) had rocky starts before going on runs to the playoffs. The Oilers had a feared defense under the always overrated Buddy Ryan. The Texans defense under Romeo Crenel may not be feared, but it may be better than the 94 Oilers. The Chiefs had Marcus Allen, but neither team had a first class running game. With Joe Montana and Warren Moon at the respective helms, both teams relied heavily on a passing attack to move the ball. The game on Saturday will feature two exemplars of the “caretaker quarterback” that actually proves successful a remarkable amount of the time. With Alex Smith and Brian Hoyer taking snaps, neither team figures to light it up through the air. The 94 game was a defensive struggle with the Oilers leading 10-7 going into the 4th quarter. Then both teams started scoring. The Chiefs won 28-20 when Montana led the team to three 4th quarter touchdowns – something that was supposed to be impossible against a Buddy Ryan defense. But in retrospect, the 9 sacks of Moon and 7 fumbles (2 lost) probably made the difference in this one. Red looks for a similar result on Saturday. The teams will thrust and parry to little effect until late in this one and then it will be a wild affair to the finish. On the QW front, the Texans have 2 with wins over the Bengals and Jets, as do the Chiefs with wins over the Stealers and Broncos. But neither team has played anyone in over a month. The Chiefs have an excellent wide-out and tight end in Maclin and Kelce. The Texans have the better receiver in Hopkins and nothing at tight end. Neither team has much of a running game. The Texans have the edge on defense, but the Chiefs are no slouch in that category. The Texans have proven they can score points against the weak sisters of the league. Can they move the ball on a good defense? Probably enough to keep it respectable, but not enough to win. One big play will probably decide this one. Kansas City 20 Houston 17.

 

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 17

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“Tom Landry is such a perfectionist that if he were married to Dolly Parton, he’d ask her to cook.” Don Meredith

Red will always love you, Don.

Red Rates Himself – For week 16 Red was 3-3. For the season 52-38. A fella could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas if he just listened to Red.

Your I Will Always Love You Pick of the Week: Cardinals over Seahawks. Very possible that this game is a preview of the NFC Championship game or a Second Round game – depending on how it breaks this week. Don’t expect much love to be lost in this grudge match. Two bruising defenses and two respectable offenses. Outcome will depend on which QB is carried off the field in a basket. Red doesn’t particularly like either team with the Cards giving up 4. The O/U at 47.5 is intriguing. If you must bet (and Red must not) go with the under. Arizona 21 Seattle 20.

Your 9 to 5 Pick of the Week: Packers over Vikings. Packers were run out of Arizona on a rail, tarred and feathered, had sand kicked in face like 97 pound weakling, atomic wedgied, beaten to a pulp, slobber-knockered, and otherwise generally humiliated. They may have had the worst performance of an allegedly good football team all season. (Note: Texans back to back butt-whippings at the hands of the Falcons and Dolphins only count if Texans qualify as an “allegedly good football team”). So why would Red pick them this week? They are at Lambeau and the weather is not likely to be a factor. Only because the Pack must win if they hope to go anywhere in the playoffs and after all, they were Red’s preseason pick to win it all. Take the over at 46.5 unless the weather forecast changes.  Green Bay 35 Minnesota 22.

Your Coat of Many Colors Pick of the Week: Raiders over Chiefs. In what may be the last game ever as the “OAKLAND RAIDERS”, at least until they move back to Oakland for the second time, Red likes Raiders playing with a mean and nasty edge against a Chiefs team that probably would like to remain 5th seed and play the Texans/Colts over the Bengals. The Chiefs will not roll over and die, but neither does Red look for them to play the starting 22 the whole game. Red likes the Raiders plus 6.5 but would like them a lot more at 7. You decide.    Oakland 30 Kansas City 23.

You’re It’s All Wrong, But It’s All Right Pick of the Week: Jaguars over Texans. Red has to pick the Jaguars because (wink wink nudge nudge) that formula has worked for the Texans. Yes, Red has seen the incredible odds facing the Colts even if they win and the Texans lose and the 8 or 9 things that need to happen for the Colts to sneak into the playoffs and has already seen that one of them happened on Monday when the Bengals lost in OT. But tell all that to the 1979 Redskins (before they became the OTNA’s). No bets on this one. Jacksonville 14 Houston 11.

Your Why’d You Come in Here Lookin’ Like That Pick of the Week: Bears over Lions. It strikes Red that he hasn’t picked the Bears to win (or perhaps even picked a Bears game) all season. Rightfully so as the Bears may be the least interesting team in the NFL this season coming in at 6-9 in a thoroughly mediocre campaign. But the Bears qualified for this season’s last Shit Bowl – thanks in part to the Lions (also 6-9) and a very close call by Red in favoring this constipated colon clash over the possibly more deserving Rams/49ers game. Don’t listen to this one on the car radio, lest ye be tempted to take a right turn through the guard rail and plunge into your local canyon, gulch or arroyo in disgust. This one is a pick’em and Red chooses Los Osos. Chicago 33 Detroit 29.

You’re The Twelfth of Never Pick of the Week: OTNA’s over Cowboys.   Red, you remember how at the beginning of the season you really bitched about the Cowboys TV schedule – which is not unusual since you do it every year? Well of course, Timmy, but it turns out ol’ Red was right as rain on this one. Red would pity the poor national TV audiences who had to suffer through the Cowboys’ parade of misery this season. Except, Billy, that about half of you folks out there get an undue amount of joy out of watching the Cowboys lose, and the other half of you should be out playing with your kids or doing something productive instead of lying on the couch gobbling Doritos and cheese dip while watching the Cowboys stink it up. So Willy, Red will be finding something else to do on Sunday rather than watch the playoff bound OTNA’s pound the Cowboys. And, Sammy, so should you. Landover, Md. 59 Arlington 8.

 

 

 

 

 

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 16

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” When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.”  Hunter S Thompson

Which is why Red remains an amateur.

Red Rates himself – For week 15 3-3. For the season  49-35.  Respectable but not terribly exciting.

Your  Weird pick of the week.  Falcons over Panthers.  No particular reason for this except that Red picked the Falcons make the playoffs. Red sticks with his  picks  until he doesn’t.   Panthers have nothing to play for except perfect season and that usually doesn’t work out too well.  Atlanta 24 Carolina 20.

Your Professional pick of the week.  Bills over Cowboys. Does Red really have to explain this one? He didn’t think so.  Orchard Park 45 Arlington 6.

Your Gonzo Journalism pick of the week. Seahawks over Rams. When in doubt, a rare occurrence, Red will ask himself – What would HST do?  Red is pretty damn sure he would pick the Hawks to continue kicking ass and taking names.  Seattle 28 St. Louis 17.

Your Fear and Loathing pick of the week.  Titans over Texans. Can Texans handle success even in the modified limited hang-out way that occurs in the PEFAPFD that is the AFC South? Red doubts it. And certainly not with Brandon Weedhead at the helm. The POS champion of this division will not be decided until Week 17.  Tennessee 34 Houston 29.

Your Hells Angels pick of the week.  Raiders over someone.  Go Raiders.  Go to Southern California.  Oakland 103 Someone 0.

Your Shit Bowl pick of the Week. If you have seen this weeks schedule you know that it is Shit Bowl heaven.  Which is too much for Red to handle

 

 

 

 

 

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 15

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“Americans have a lower opinion of Congress than they do of the NFL replacement refs, head lice, traffic jams, cockroaches and even the group to which yours truly belongs – Washington political pundits.”

Juan Williams

Juan left out Hitler, anyone whose name is preceded by Ayatollah, Stalin, Pol Pot, Mussolini and Jerry Jones.

Red Rates Himself – For week 14 Red was 3-3. For the season 46-32. Looks better in the rear-view mirror.

Your Traffic Jam Pick of the Week: Jets over Cowboys. Don’t expect much of a traffic jam on the way to the Cowboys game on Saturday. Even Cowboy fans can smell the rotting corpse of this season. Do expect a traffic jam among Jets defenders lining up to sack [Insert Cowboy Quarterback here]. The Jets minus 3. Are you kidding Red? Take the Jets and beat the traffic home from work. New Jersey 32 Arlington 12.

Your Head Lice Pick of the Week: Colts over Texans. Texans have never won in Indianapolis, so why not now? Because they still suck. Red was shocked at how badly Bill-O the Clown was outcoached by the Hoodie last week. What is with lining up against Brady with only one defensive lineman on the field? What is with playing Whitney Mercilus at nose tackle? What is with running the Wildcat without a Cat? What is with picking the Colts to do what they always do – no matter who is at the helm? Colts give up 2. Red gives up on Texans after this one. Take the under at 42.5.  Indianapolis 20 Houston 17.

Your Cockroach Pick of the Week: Dolphins over Chargers. What do cockroaches like? Shit!. The southern California roaches will be in Hog Heaven this weekend as the Shit Bowl rolls into town. Why did the Texans have to face the Dolphins when the bloom was still on the Dan Campbell rose? Since his first two games, the Dolphins have been in the running for almost every SB. This is their week!. Red would not believe exactly how pathetic the Chargers have become – except for the fact that whenever Red picks them to make the playoffs they suck. If Sadomasochism is your thing watch this one with a friend who will laugh when you grab the carrot peeler to start shaving your head in disgust at watching this fetid fecal fight – or vice versa. Curiously, Red likes the over at 45.    Miami 33 San Diego 25.

You’re Washington Political Pundit Pick of the Week: OTNA’s over Bills. Red hasn’t paid much attention to the OTNA’s from just outside the Beltway this season. Red also doesn’t watch NASCAR just to see the wrecks. And then suddenly, the OTNA’s are playing almost like a real professional football team. And Kirk Cousins is looking like a professional quarterback that you might actually want playing for your team. That is, if your team has Brian Hoyer, Jonathan Football, Matt Ryan or Ryan Tannehill at the helm. Meanwhile on the shores of Lake Erie, the Bills are not exactly dead yet. Almost, but not quite. They will be Sunday evening. All bets are off on this one.  Landover, Md. 27 Orchard Park 20.

Your Replacement Ref Pick of the Week: Chiefs over Ravens. Ravens are ravaged by injuries. Chiefs are on the hottest roll this side of Carolina over the last 7 weeks. Red keeps expecting Chiefs sans Jamaal Charles to return to Earth, but they keep on winning. Red cannot think of a single reason why that should not continue this week. And exactly who are the Ravens going to suit up at QB this week? Ryan Mallett? Red would pay to see that debacle. Kansas City 45 Baltimore 3.

You’re Low Self Esteem Pick of the Week: Eagles over Cardinals.   Red, you wonder, “Are you out of your fricking mind?” Well, Lenny, Yes. As a matter of fact, Red is. At the beginning of the season, he picked both of these teams to make the post-season and the Cardinals have not disappointed. But, Freddy, the Eagles are another story. Perhaps even a series of novels about a downtrodden gumshoe working the cheating wife circuit on the wrong side of the tracks. So Timmy, Red almost has to pick the Eagles since he is also picking the OTNA’s to win. That, Sammy, is how you box yourself in – in this game. And remember, Jimmy, the double time zone, inverse climate change, indoor/outdoor shift factor clearly all tilt in favor of the OTNA’s. So, Ricky, the Eagles will win – take it to the bank – just don’t cash it until Monday. And Chucky, take all your allowance money for the past 6 months and put it on the Eagles getting 3.5. Philadelphia 33 Arizona 26.

 

 

 

 

 

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 14

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“The NFL, like life, is full of idiots.” Randy Cross

Red is a glass half full kind of guy.

Red Rates Himself – For week 13 Red was 1-5. For the season 43-29. Harrumph.

Your Idiotic Pick of the Week: Bengals over Stealers. The theme this week dictates that Red pick a lot of games that he really should stay away from – this first one being a prime example. This one features two teams that are playing some of the best football in the league right now. A couple of other teams are on hotter streaks but the Stealers are looking very dangerous as long as Ben stays in the game – and they are doing it without LeVeon Bell. Antonio Brown may be the best receiver in the league right now with over 1300 yards and Martavis Bryant appears to be another excellent receiver from Clemson – a receiver factory apparently. Give Ben those kind of options and some time . . . Meanwhile, the Bengals seem to have rebounded from their 2 game losing streak by absolutely pounding the Rams and Browns the last two weeks. Stealers are not poundable, but the Bengals overall balance should tip this one slightly in their favor. Bet this one at your own risk – as always. Cincinnati 21 Pittsburgh 20.

Your Moronic Pick of the Week: Patriots over Texans. Red was correctly concerned last week that actually picking the Texans is the kiss of death. Red is willing to take one for the team because this pick follows two rules that have worked well – well sort of. Picking the Patriots has been a steady source of wins for Red and picking against the Texans has generally failed and insured a win for the Texans. Objectively, however, a 3 game losing streak for the Pats is almost unimaginable, while a 2 game losing streak for the Texans is simply par for the back nine. Red would only bet on this one at gunpoint and even then he would have to ponder it for a moment or two.   New England 24 Houston 20.

Your Pendejo Pick of the Week: Jaguars over Colts. Just because.   Red would take the over here if there was one.  Jacksonville 35 Indianapolis 24.

You’re Dumbshit Pick of the Week: 49ers over Browns. Niners have yet to put back to back wins together and in desperation relegated Kaepernick to the bench calling on the redoubtable Blaine Gabbert – and by that Red means that you can doubt Gabbert multiple times and not really have to worry about it. Meanwhile, the Browns have 2 wins total and come in on 7 game losing streak which has them turning to the desperate measure of putting the ball into the hands of the erratic Jonathon F. Football. All of which adds up to this week’s Shit Bowl. Take Red’s advice and bury your guns in the back yard right now if you plan on watching this dreadful dung duel, lest ye be tempted to terrorize the china cabinet by taking potshots at the Wedding Waterford to relieve the pain you are experiencing. If you bet on this one, it’s time to seek out Gambler’s Anonymous. Santa Clara 13 Cleveland 10.

Your Box of Rocks Pick of the Week: Packers over Cowboys. The Cowboys have beaten each of the other teams in the PEFAPFD that is the NFC East and the Dolphins. The Packers are no great shakes but have beaten the Vikings, Chiefs and Seahawks. Red is a firm believer in that “on any given Sunday” stuff, but not this Sunday. Take the Packers giving up 7.  Green Bay 35 Arlington 13.

You’re WTF? Pick of the Week: Titans over Jets.   Red, you ask, “Why do the Jets get a lot of favorable press every year, and then wind up sucking?” Well, Billy, that is what is known as the New York press bias. At the beginning of the season, the sporting press – every last one of them who lives in New York – must find something really favorable to say about the NY football franchises who actually play their games in New Jersey. So, Bobby, the glowing reports come out and everyone is happy. That is, Sammy, until the games actually start being played. Believe Red, Willy, he is as surprised as anyone to see how well Ryan Fitzpatrick has played and how he has the Jets – Yes, the Jets – in contention for a playoff spot. But, Freddy, remember that almost every season, there is a team that tanks it in December (usually the Cowboys) and also a formerly pathetic team that turns it on for a stretch drive that invigorates the fan base with hope for next year – only to usually be disappointed. Last year it was the Vikings who started to play like an actual professional football team over the last 6 or so games of the season. So, Timmy, Red is picking the Titans to be that team this year. Why? Because he likes to play with your little minds.  Red kind of likes the under here at 43, but his money is staying in the ATM.  Tennessee 24 New Jersey 13.

Red’s NFL Picks – Week 13

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“Pressure is something you feel when you don’t know what the hell you’re doing.”

Peyton Manning

The only pressure PM is feeling these days is the pressure on his ass from the bench on which he is riding.

Red Rates Himself – For week 11 Red was 2-4. For the season 42-24. Good thing Red took week 12 off.

Your Too Much Pressure Pick of the Week: Falcons over Buccaneers. The Falcons just can’t handle success and clearly at risk of letting another season slip away – albeit in a different fashion this year. After a hot start the Falcons are 1-5 over their last 6 games having not scored more than 21 points during that stretch. The close loss to the Bucs at home on Nov. 1 started the current string of 4 losses in a row. Either the Falcons exact revenge for that one or their playoff hopes take a huge hit on Sunday. The Bucs have been up and down and unable to string together exactly one 2 game winning streak against the dregs of the NFC East (Eagles and Cowboys). Doug Martin has resurrected his career and Jameis Winston is looking like he can develop into a real starting QB in the NFL. The winner of this one doesn’t have an inside track to a wildcard playoff spot just yet, but the loser is definitely in trouble. This game hinges on the return of fantasy football star Devonta Freeman. Red is betting that he passes the NFL’s concussion protocol this week and is back punishing linebackers. Still this one is too close to call for a betting man. Atlanta 23 Tampa Bay 20.

Your Pressure Cooker Pick of the Week: Texans over Bills. Red is concerned that actually picking the Texans is the kiss of death. But the Texans should have this game in the pocket if only they can keep Tyrod Taylor in the pocket. The Bills do have a respectable running game, but the Texans front 7 has suddenly turned the corner. Since Lamar Miller burned them for 175 yards on Oct. 25, the Texans have pretty much shut down every running back they have faced. The weather does not appear to be a factor and the Texans will grind out a close one here. Red likes the under on this one at 42.   Houston 17 Orchard Park 13.

Your Pressure Drop, Oh Pressure, I Say Pressure Gonna Drop on You Pick of the Week: Vikings over Seahawks.   Against his better judgment, Red picked the Seahawks to get in as a wildcard. And they would be in if the season ended today. Red was barely sentient during the last 12 game NFL season, but he bets it was nice having the NFL championship game played sometime before spring break. Red also picked the Vikings who are looking to knock off the Packers and start a new era of Purple Pride. Since the mysterious loss to the 49ers in week one, the Vikings have beat all comers save for the Pack. They get another shot in the last game of the season. Red was pretty convinced Teddy Ballgame was the real deal when he excelled in the last 6 games of the 2014 without scrubs and dregs in the backfield. With AP, who is a real running back, defensive minded head coach Mike Zimmer is just not letting (or more likely having to let) Teddy throw the ball much at all. You beat the Seahawks with a punishing running game that then opens up their secondary to the deep ball – and Teddy can throw deep when he needs to. Look for some big plays in this one. Right now this one is a pick’em and Red picks the Vikings.   Minnesota 35 Seattle 21.

You’re Anal Pressure Pick of the Week: OTNA’s over Cowboys. Putting the OTNA’s in this week’s Shit Bowl is a little unfair. They are a first place team – even if it is the Pathetic Excuse for a Professional Football Division that is the NFC East. But almost any time two teams from the PEFPFD meet, being slated for the Shit Bowl is fair game. Red was watching the Cowboys get drubbed by the Panthers while finishing up preparations for the Thanksgiving meal and kept thinking – Why is Tony Romo still in this game? He just came back from a long rehab and this game is out of hand. He is just going to get injured and then the Cowboys season will really be over. And guess what? Anyhow, Red feels bad that he wasn’t around last week to give loyal readers the dead cinch lock of the season by taking the Panthers plus 1. So he gives you this one as the dead cinch lock of the week. Take the resurgent OTNA’s and give up whatever points you have to give up. The Cowboys are staggering around looking for a place to fall and it will be face down in the turf at FedEx Field on Monday. I am sure the league is very happy that they scheduled the Cowboys to play in 11 nationally televised games (including this dreadful dung duel) this season. Take the Skins minus 4 or minus 25 if you have to. Landover, Md 45 Arlington 3.

Your Pressure Washer Pick of the Week: Patriots over Eagles. Speaking of staggering around looking for a place to fall can only lead to a discussion of the heaping mound of refuse that the Eagles have become. Red is in awe of a coach that can take a real professional football team and remake them into a lifeless lump of losers. Then you have the coach on the other side that loses player after player and just keeps on winning. This one will be closer than it should be. But really, who do you want to bet on? Take the Pats unless you have to give up more than 9 which you undoubtedly will. New England 24 Philadelphia 14.

You’re a Pressure Points Pick of the Week: Stealers over Colts.   Red, you ask, “Aren’t most 40 year old men sitting on their living room couch on Sunday watching young men ruin their bodies for the pleasure of others?” Yes, Timmy, that’s usually a correct statement. But Billy, every once in a while there comes a player, a George Blanda, a Vinny Testaverde, a Sonny Jurgenson, who somehow manages to cheat the hands of time and play well past the normal expiration date. And Willy, we appear to have one of those on our hands this season in the form of Matt Hasselbeck. Translated from the Old German “Hasselbeck” actually means “elderly watermelon chucker.” So Danny, perhaps it was fate that put much of the Colts season in the hands of the ageless wonder from Colorado via Boston College. Meanwhile, Chuck “the Duck” Pagano claims that MH will not replace faltering Andrew Luck at QB for the Colts. This despite the fact that MH has won 4 of the 6 games for the Colts this season while Luck has just plain sucked in several of his starts. In fairness, Louie, the Colts best win -against the Broncos – came with AL at the helm and MH has feasted on the defensive dregs of the league. So if Chuck wants to go back to Luck, more power to him. The winner of this one has the inside track to a Wildcard spot. The loser is playing for time. Games like this are dangerous. Red has consulted the Magic Golf Ball which says “Sell.” Red is staying away. Pittsburgh 20 Indianapolis 12.